Am I Lucky or Good or a little of both; Newbie

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Dgrn3387

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Okay so I play competitive golf over the summers and always gamble during the winter. Same cycle every year. Last year I started to dabble in poker and then I started to Study poker going into this year. Not sure if my sample size is large enough but I only play 1/2 nl cash games because that is all that is offered where I live at casinos and am up over $2000 for 48-60 hours of play so far this year. I haven't had a rebuy in 6 sessions and I try to play odds and outs correctly, but I don't necessarily play premium hands every single hand. I don't play junk either. I will limp in with any BB hand, Call maybe 2 or 3x BB on suited connectors and then I will Play the premium hands on top of that. I rarely pre-flop raise as I love to slow play. If I do, it is no more than $12. I will call any pre-flop raise with premium hands though. I am just wondering if I have run into a string of luck or not? I have been beat on the river multiple times and continue to get my stack back. I feel like I am very good at reading players and have had some really, really good lay downs as well. I think my ability to fold is what is keeping my money in check actually. Anyways, I know that I am not anywhere near a pro or anything but am just wondering why every time I go I walk out with 200+.

Side question I have had at the tables and everyone seems to agree is that so many people say you cannot make $50,000 per year at a 1/2nl game. I disagree. I think that you could easily make $200 per day, 5 days a week. My Strategy is to play tight at first, find out who the bad players are and really only play against them. I know there are better players in the room and at the table than I am but I am only going to go against them with Premium Cards compared to playing against a guy whose just passing time. I am not saying I would do this because I make more at work but just thought I would throw it out there too.

Thanks for the time!
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

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I was making over $50k/year but I mixed in other stakes too. I don't agree with the general consensus that $25/hour is max long run hourly at $200nl either. I ran over that for a long long time.

That being said....48-60 hours is nothing. I'm sure you're doing something right, but no one will really be able to tell you if you're on a heater or not without seeing some hand histories/sweating you. I'd encourage you to study up more, keep logging hours, and work to improve your game.

There's no reason you can't make that $400/night instead of $200 ya know?
 
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Dgrn3387

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You say you want to gamble in the winter-if you want to gamble, you should try blackjack or roulette, not poker. GL

I use the term "Gamble" as a general term. If I am putting cash up to win cash I would use that word to talk to anyone about it. I'm still gambling until I know if this is a long term win streak or not anyways. I will ride it out and get a better sample size. Speaking of, how many hours will I need to log to get a fair enough sample size?
 
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killblind

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re

I agree with mace , you must be doing something right but , I see it like this , you cannot tell how good you orhow good anyone else is unless you keep a journal or spred sheet for a year or so. I had a poker journal before poker became illegal online in spokane wa and for the first year I never hit below the + 14 percent mark from any givin month , they say your considered at least minor pro with a 7 percent average over the course of the year but I disagree somewhat with that being good enough to pay the bills at a low limit! and I consider pro someone who can pay the bills and through the ups and downs control their bankroll. someone can be good enough to win morte than they lose on average but if they cannot control their bankroll and make foolish decisions then they are losing money in the long run. I think money management is one of the most important aspects that a "GOOD" player can incorporate into their lexicon of poker understandings. and you are fairly on your way because if you understand where you stand at and make it a point to take from the weaker players then you arwe smart enough to make a decent living off of poker. here is wisdom of someone who has made a living at poker:,I myself used to be able to hit the final table off of 1800 player tourneys four out of five times when I was younger, as I got older I got sick with some mysterious neurological disease that has effected a miriad of aspects of my health including my eyesight, memory and concentration among other things, I now still make money but where I could play with world class people all day everyday I have learned that with my setbacks that it is more important than ever to play in certain limits and games that I know that I can consistently beat and only play any type of money limit that is relevant to the health of my bankroll now and the most important thing is money management.with the understanding that I have gained about this over the years, I no longer ever go broke even on an extremely cold streak. it happens to every player eventually. sometimes you can make the best plays for all givin' situations and no matter what you do , the deck can throw twists and turns that leave your game dry, but with good money management skills and the ability to know which games you can consistently knock out one after the other and that in my opinion puts you in the category with the pros. :) enough of my jabber.
 
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killblind

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yup ! poker is only gambling if you sit with other players that you cannot beat consistently. gamblers don't mix with poker. you might as well play slots scratch tickets like he said lol .
 
MrPokerVerse

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You are off to a good start for sure. Invest some those winnings in some form of poker education. Always more to know and something else to learn.
 
IPlay

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Considering you don't really have good record keeping and you are winning at $40/hour you are probably on a slight heater. Although you could be playing decently but by the sounds of your first post you don't seem like someone who could steady beat the game at that rate. I am not saying it is not possible for you to ever do that but right now I would be willing to say you are on a heater.
 
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love that omaha

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Well, you definitely want to re-think that never raise preflop strategy - I understand you probably think it is easier to win a big pot when you disguise the strength of your hand and then flop big but you are missing out on taking down a number of medium size pots uncontested so you have significant profits when a big pot does arise. My guess is you are on a pretty good heater and maybe need to improve to maximize yr profits while the cards are running your way.
 
divato

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Lucky or running good. Either way I would love to be in your shoes.
 
ScooperNova

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Keep making those big laydowns and learn to raise preflop once in a while with those monsters. Good luck!
 
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