Am I good enough to COMFORTABLY beat 10NL?

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Deceitful_Frank

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Hey guys, I'd like to post some data on my play that I have gathered over the last month or so. I have begun to play 6max and have had much success so far, building up quite a comprehensive strategy for most spots I often come across and plugging a lot of leaks. I have drasticly reduced the volume that I play and now pretty much limit myself to 2 hours per day playing 4 tables of 5NL on stars. I have better balance in my life, am happier and feel I play better.

I got the impression that its the multitable microstakes HUDbots that end up staying at microstakes. I am now a firm believer in less is more, even though I realise it can now take 2-3 months to build up a solid sample!

My BR stands at about $210 and I want to move up to 10NL. I am familiar the Peter Principle. I'd sooner be a kick-ass 5NL beast than just another frustrated break even 10NL reg and want to use this post to get a little feedback on my stats and perhaps some insight as to a few more areas of improvement before I make the leap.

I think I have got the basics down pretty well now. My weak areas are:
  • Dealing with donk betters
  • River value betting.
  • Finding GOOD set mining spots.
  • WA/WB spots.
  • Playing 3-bet pots post flop.
Any obvious bad numbers or thoughts on my weak areas?

Thanks in advance, Frank
smile.gif
 

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fx20736

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I think I have got the basics down pretty well now. My weak areas are:
  • Dealing with donk betters
  • River value betting.
  • Finding GOOD set mining spots.
  • WA/WB spots.
  • Playing 3-bet pots post flop.
Any obvious bad numbers or thoughts on my weak areas?

Thanks in advance, Frank
smile.gif
  • Dealing with donk betters. The frustrating part of dealing with donk betting is that it takes away your ability to c-bet, but really they are making a mistake by acting first. If you miss you can safely fold and make no mistakes in the hand. if you hit they're just building a pot for you. Just re-raise them with air on occassion.
  • River value betting. Look at it this way. You get to the river and you are unsure whether your hand is best. Imagine what size river bet you would call and instead of checking and hoping villain doesn't bet you be the bettor and bet that imagined amount. You'd be surprised at the number of folds you'll get. Also if you think villain is drawing make a value sized bet (say 1/3 pot) even when you whiff yourself. If you only get this right 1/3 of the time you break even. Any more is +EV.
  • Finding GOOD set mining spots. Nits and overly aggro TAGs are the best targets when you are in IP. Another good spot if original raiser gets one or more callers before action gets to you. If there are already 2 callers you can even flat from the blinds. Also on occasion, when there are 3 or more callers make a PS3B bluff with small pps & scs. This can be super EV as you will usually take it down pf and when you hit the pot will be huge and your hand will be well concealed.
  • WA/WB spots. These spots are very villain dependent.This may not be standard WA/WB thinking but if you have a overpair or Top pair on a dry board and OOP and you think opponent is tricky make your c-bet smallish; 40-50% of pot. That gives you a chance to get away cheaply if an villain who flopped 2 pair or a set re-raises you. If they call and the turn is a brick make another small bet, say 1/3 pot. If they have a set they will want to get more money in the pot and re-raise here.If they like to float they make consider a check on the turn as a sign of weakness and bet if you check. Then then you have to agonize and figure out if they are bluffing or value betting. If they call on the turn make another small bet on the river; 1/4 pot. If they If they go over the top you can safely fold.
  • Playing 3-bet pots post flop. as a general rule when you 3bet you should cbet. I think the exception would be if you flop a set of Aces on a dry board as the Ace may kill any chance of getting some value out of KK/QQ/ JJ. Sure it takes a little courage to fire with AK on a 9 high board but AK seems to run into AK often (when you have AK there are still 9 combos of AK out there as opposed to 3 AA combos, 3 KK combos, 6 QQ combos & 6 JJ combos) so 1/3 of that range is AK. If they are flatting 3bets wider with AQ/AJ and some pps you are ahead even more often.
 
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rileyl

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Move up bro.,.stats look really solid....10NL isn't really any different from 5NL. You'll be fine
 
LuckyChippy

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That's a pretty sick graph tbf, even at 5nl
 
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Stick66

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Christ! How do you maintain 18/16 at 5NL? Even at 6max?

With so many chasers at the micro-stakes level, I find it tough to profitably PFR. At 10NL, I lose so much post flop that I can't justify PFR's so regularly. So many crap chasers draw out on me in avg+sized pots that normal raise/cbet strat seems useless. I run about 22/10 at 10NL FR and 20/12 at 6max. Maybe I'm doing something wrong.

Hey Frank. Plz give us some tidbits on how you play.
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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Tidbits eh, well I should start by making it pretty clear that my general play is VERY flawed and post-flop I do spew shitloads. My pre-flop play is far more solid however so by the time the first three board cards come, I am usually in pretty good shape, and position relative to by opponenet.

I am quite a methodical player. I have made and use my own charts, starting hand charts, tables, graphs etc. I have them coming out of my earholes and believe a solid default strategy is a the best basepoint far most pre-flop plays. I then use strategy that I have built up to make adjustments depending on how their stats differ from the average at the stake in the particular situation, plus stack sizes and my table image etc.

I limit myself to 2 hours per day and only play 4 tables of 5NL 6max. Never more. This gives me plenty of time to devise a different plan for each of my 20 opponents, to think about their individual weaknesses and to make adjustment to exploit them.

I play within my bankroll. Scared money is losing money. You must never be afraid to shove all your cash when you believe you have 60% equity. If you are then you need to drop down a level as your aggression and profitability will be compromised.

You should always have the means, motive and opportunity before you sit down to play and the self control to quit when either of these are not present. As I type this post I have the means to play and a good 90 minutes of spare time ahead but I know within myself that I have not got the drive to really get in there and fu.ck it up. You know when you don't have 100% focus. Having the discipline to say NO when its not right to play will save you much money and the cash you don't lose spends just as well as the money you win.

Above all I think my biggest breakthrough was learning to rationalise variance and just smile when something like the following happens:

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1176173
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $9.78
BB: $10.10
UTG: $10.00
MP: $7.84 This guy was a 53/20 with a steal of 33 over 55 hands. His fold to 3bet was 1/2, he C/R'd 2/8 times and folded to flop Cbets 5/10 times.
CO: $11.23
Hero (BTN): $10.79

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A
club.gif
K
club.gif

1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 6
spade.gif
A
spade.gif
5
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(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.75) 4
diamond.gif
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.85, MP calls $1.85

River: ($6.45) J
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(2 players) Notice how I even sized my bets for a 2/3 effective pot shove on the river :)
MP bets $4.69 all in, Hero calls $4.69

Highlight below for result...

Guy shows Js4s!


I just said, "nh man"
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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erm... highlight the last 6 lines?!
 
PattyR

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ah my bad sorry my monitor cant handle that color very well and i didn't see it!!!!
 
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Stick66

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Yeah that hand is my typical problem. But I'll figure it out. Thanks for the insight Frank.
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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Well nearly 3000 hands is and things are going ok I think. Still plenty of idiots but perhaps a few more solid players dotted about than I am used to. Thankfully however they are no more difficult to avoid than they are at 5NL :)

So far I think the toughest part of playing 10NL is withstanding the beats. It feels like real money (in comparison) and will perhaps take so time to build up the confidence to throw those chips about in the right spots like I know I should!

Losing 2-3 stacks in a row does sting.
 

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BelgoSuisse

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Very nice.

The only way to get used to the swings and stop thinking about the monetary value of your chips is to keep on playing. Sooner or later 10nl will start to feel like it's normal, and if you ever decide to play lower, it will feel like play money.
 
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RamdeeBen

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It is a big leap in terms of money frmo 5nl to 10nl if you're full stacked.

Still though you look like a promising good player, keep up the good work!

Goodluck!
 
pokerman27

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Very nice.

The only way to get used to the swings and stop thinking about the monetary value of your chips is to keep on playing. Sooner or later 10nl will start to feel like it's normal, and if you ever decide to play lower, it will feel like play money.

Agreed. I started an $2NL and have just started at $10NL. I remember being blinded by how much bigger the pot sizes were at $5NL and am now thinking the same at $10NL. Just need to focus on the game and as DF says not play with scared money. My second hand at $10NL I lost my full stack with AA against Q4 - AI in preflop. In many ways it reasureed me there are plenty of fish still swimming around!!
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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lol yes there are indeed. There was one guy I played about 200 hands with. He was running 60/4 and always folded to a Cbet unless he has any peice of the flop. If he did he just wouldn't let go! I told him that I loved him.

It was frustrating as everyone at the table was stacking him apart from me, I just never got the cards at the right time.

He eventually left, I did a search and he was at a 25NL table with 2 others!

I just saw $$$ signs as 90% of players games fall aprt when the table gets short. I have played quite a bit of HU so I sat down but within 3-4 hands the table was full and I became aware that it I was sat at a FR table!

Meh, I think I lost like 35c :)
 
pokerman27

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I play within my bankroll. Scared money is losing money. You must never be afraid to shove all your cash when you believe you have 60% equity. If you are then you need to drop down a level as your aggression and profitability will be compromised.

He eventually left, I did a search and he was at a 25NL table with 2 others!

I just saw $$$ signs as 90% of players games fall aprt when the table gets short. I have played quite a bit of HU so I sat down but within 3-4 hands the table was full and I became aware that it I was sat at a FR table!


Doesn't chasing the fish to higher limits go against your BR management?
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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Of course.

I was recounting what I did, not what I should have done.

Unfortunately for my BR I am human being!

Gotta say though, this guy was probably the worst player I have ever seen at stars. I feel I have and enormous edge over a random guy when the table gets short. I am not surprized I sucummed.

Reckon I'd happily sit at a 6max table all day with just this guy and two 25NL randoms... perhaps with a $300 BR mind :)
 
pokerman27

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Of course.

I was recounting what I did, not what I should have done.

Unfortunately for my BR I am human being!

Gotta say though, this guy was probably the worst player I have ever seen at stars. I feel I have and enormous edge over a random guy when the table gets short. I am not surprized I sucummed.

Yeah I get what you're saying - how sick would you be though if you got that premium hand you were waiting for and he sucked out on you and stacked you? Is it worth it? Plenty more fish in the sea (ahem)
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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True, it all comes down to your level of comfort. I've read some cracking material on variance, standard deviation and comfort levels. If you are mathematically minded (I am less so) to pick through it you can choose a risk of ruin % and pair it up with your playing style to devise an individual BR management plan specifically suited to you. Links are on my old PC but its good stuff if you do some searches.

The whole 5% thing only applies to one specific playing style and level of comfort but its a good all-round number to shoot for... I guess :confused:

Tell me, how much would you gamble right now and ONLY ONCE with a pair of aces vs another pair all in pre-flop? $100, 200... more?
 
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pokerman27

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Tell me, how much would you gamble right now and ONLY ONCE with a pair of aces vs another pair all in pre-flop? $100, 200... more?

I'd only ever gamble what I had sitting at the table right at that moment...it's not a scenario that will ever present itself to me in any other form.
 
LuckyChippy

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I'd only ever gamble what I had sitting at the table right at that moment...it's not a scenario that will ever present itself to me in any other form.

It's a theoretical question that you are allowed to answer. Maybe think of it as someone saying, I have a 5 sided dice 1-5 and if it comes up 1 you lose, any other number and you double your money. What you be willing to risk in this situation?

Personally I'd take the £50 in my wallet, go to the cash machine and withdraw the £80 in there and snap his hand off.

Everyone has a different tolerance.
 
pokerman27

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It's a theoretical question that you are allowed to answer. Maybe think of it as someone saying, I have a 5 sided dice 1-5 and if it comes up 1 you lose, any other number and you double your money. What you be willing to risk in this situation?

Personally I'd take the £50 in my wallet, go to the cash machine and withdraw the £80 in there and snap his hand off.

Everyone has a different tolerance.

I get what it is. It's not possible to answer becuae you are not actually in that situation and everyonce can hypothesise...and even in answering what does it prove? You say you would put all the cash availiable to you on it....fine. So would most people, so would I. Question answered. What has it proved in relevence to the point about strict bankroll managment?
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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I wasn't expecting an answer, this wasn't a test. I was just rambling away and wanted you to give the question some thought.

If you think it, a poker BR for most people isn't going to be all the money they have, or could have available to them to play poker. I could go to the bank for instance and drop a couple k into my PS account without it impacting on me to badly (well not in the immediate term). Perhaps I could just about beat 25NL or break even at 50NL and reap the cash bonuses, I don't know.

Perhaps this discussion would be better elsewhere, I thought there might be a standard deviation thread somewhere.
 
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Deceitful_Frank

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Just a review of some trouble hands from earlier if anyone cares!
Be good to get some feedback or perhaps someone who is trying to find their feet at 2-5NL could learn something?
Well anyway:

watch?v=fgHaESEfYg8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgHaESEfYg8
 
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