Almost 20 BIs below EV?

L

ludde2009

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 26, 2012
Total posts
67
Chips
0
I've been running like bad luck brian for the last 30k hands, almost 20 BIs below my expected value. This is really starting to get to me, ridiculous stuff is happening almost every session. Sets that get outdrawn on the river when I'm already pot committed etc.
Here's an example from this session, where I ran -0.5 BIs instead of +4BI
poker stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $5.09 (101.8 bb)
SB: $1.99 (39.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $5 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $5.04 (100.8 bb)
UTG+2: $18.22 (364.4 bb)
MP1: $2.80 (56 bb)
MP2: $11.58 (231.6 bb)
MP3: $5 (100 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9
diamond4.gif
8
diamond4.gif

6 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.22) A
diamond4.gif
2
diamond4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, BTN raises to $4.49 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.55 and is all-in

Turn: ($10.02) A
spade4.gif
(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($10.02) J
heart4.gif
(2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $10.02 pot ($0.42 rake)
Final Board: A
diamond4.gif
2
diamond4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif
A
spade4.gif
J
heart4.gif

BTN showed A
club4.gif
Q
heart4.gif
and won $9.60 ($4.60 net)
Hero showed 9
diamond4.gif
8
diamond4.gif
and lost (-$5 net)

and here's my graph the last 50k hands:
GRAPH

How do you guys deal with this? I've been playing and playing for weeks now, yet still I get outdrawn almost every time I have close to the nuts on the flop.

Just feels so pointless to play for days, when I know I am a winning player, and still can't manage to win a single damn pot.
 
vanquish

vanquish

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Total posts
12,000
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one time i ran so many buy ins under EV that i had to consult a mathematician to figure out what number to use to express it
 
J

Jonny03UK

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 23, 2012
Total posts
116
Chips
0
Just remind yourself of the fact you've played the best poker you could and that this won't happen forever. Just last month my EV was about £45 and my actual winnings were about £12 playing at £2NL. That's almost a 22BI difference.

This month I'm above EV and have sucked out with AK vs KK and KK vs AA. Karma I guess?

Just keep playing and continue to get your money in good. Volume beats variance!
 
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