re: Poker & All Opinions Welcome
Originally Posted by Kenzie 96
Yup, unless you have a good enough read to put him on AA or KK call & his reraise to allin instead of just calling would seem to indicate he didn't want any other action.
You seriously don't think that AA or KK raises to isolate the all in short stack? Wow. I just can't agree with that read AT ALL. If anything, I would think that there is a greater chance of the big pair re-raising here, and AK just making the call (in case another big stack wakes up with AA or KK and three bets all in).
Anyway, there are 16 ways to make AK and six ways each to make AA and KK (total of 12), so your opponent is 4:3 fav to have AK, which you are then an approximate 50% favorite against.
You are getting some extra value from the first all in shover, but not enough to justify a call, from a purely mathematical stand point (IF you think he only could have AK, AA, or KK here-- adding other hands obvioulsy changes the math).
Also, it's kind of bs to say "I immediately call his hand"-- you don't get to just put someone on a hand preflop just because it's the one you want him to have/the one you can beat. Your opponent has a RANGE of hands, and you need to make your calculations based on all the possible hands he could have, not just the one you want him to have.