The all-in overbet...what gives?

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Dr_Dick

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Please explain this one to me as I see it a ton...not as much in cash, but in tournaments all the time. The pot will be 100 and someone pushes 3K???

I know some of you out there have done it, why?
 
PokerVic

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There are certain players, who are not as uncommon as you might think, who play MTTs. As soon as one of these players puts 100 chips into the pot, they are pot committed. They simply cannot fold, even if they are holding AJo or KTs, no matter what the bet.

It's because of players like this that shoving with AA on any opened pot can sometimes be very profitable. Oh, and there are also the crazies who will shove with any ace to pick up the blinds. :D
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Depends on the table and the MTT. If I'm at a loose table and have seen some 'bad' calls, I may overbet a big pair hoping to get one of these 'bad' calls for me. Also in rebuys you see this a lot. I have shoved my share of AA/KK/QQ in the rebuy period even w/o any limpers ahead of me. Playing live I have come across so many players that shove their 99+ because they are sooooo afraid of being sucked out on. Then they spend 10 mins detailing all their bad beats that they use for justification.
 
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chilezone

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When I first began playing poker taht is all I did. I pushed very hard because I actually thought I had something. Just remember there a lot of us out there that know nothing but, think we know everything!
 
Dwilius

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I play micros, thats the best way to play aces there...nines or better always call
 
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Dr_Dick

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Assuming you will get called with AA,KK 100% of the time, QQ 90% of the time and AK 50% of the time, the all-in push with AQ or 33 seems like a super donk move to me. You are only getting called by better hands the vast majority of the time. Chances 1 of your opponents holds AA is roughly 1 in 24/25, so 3 in 24 for AA-QQ and include AK...it means you can get away with it roughly 8 times on average to pick up basically nothing and be in a coin flip situation at best.

If on the other hand you are pushing AA/KK in hopes KK-99 or AK/AQ calls it is also a super donk move. You will be dealt AA once every 221 and get called say 1 in 8. So add in pushing with KK/QQ your looking at 1 in 70ish.

So every 70 hands you get to push your 3k to pick up 100 and 1 in 8 you get called with roughly an 80% chance to win, slightly less when you push KK and run into AA or AK or you push QQ and run into AK. So you win 700 outright and 2400 when you get called pushing your premium hands. So with the best hands you can be dealt AA-QQ, you double up once every 8 plays.

Now granted the numbers I put out are speculative. This not mathematics, just guess work for the purposes of discussion. I simply do not see how the all-in push is profitable on either end. If you have a marginal hand, you are only getting called by a hand that beats you and if you are pushing with a premium hand you are not getting called often enough to make it as profitable as having played for a standard raise and getting more money in postflop.
 
starsmyle

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I will only do something similar to that bet with AA and not wanting a caller to suck out.
 
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rnevet

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well, I'll put my dime into it.. I think the reason people are doing this is becasue there are playing a tournament and they think that if they don't get a big pot in the early stages they don't stand a chance.. so when they get something reasonable they'll go all-in assuming there is someone like them that will pick up the bet. and then counting on luck. i.e. if you are playing a freeroll with a low rebuy for example.
 
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sliver101

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they r scared of post flop play
 
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