AK and AQ out of position. - Bet Sizing question.

Hey guys..this question is with regards to my home game, usually 7-8 handed. Initial buy in capped to 30$, blinds 0.25/0.5 but the standard opening raise is 2$ due to an uncapped straddle which almost every person but myself uses in every hand. I keep considering my stack as 15BB's due to this straddle.

Anyhow, 5/7 players here are fish. Guys who will play absolutely any hand they're dealt, who will bet heavily on bottom pair and try their best to fold you out. There is next to no fold equity here as they tag along till the river with middle pair 80% of the time. I was wondering, If i'm on my first buy in and I'm dealt AK or AQ out of position, what would be the right pre-flop raise and continuation bet. I am perceived as a tight player so i'm usually put on a narrow range if I raise pre-flop and if an Ace , King or Queen doesnt show up on the flop the fish start betting heavily to drive me out the pot , especially since they always seem to hit some tiny pair 2's, 4's etc.

So anyhow, seeing as BB is actually 0.5, but standard opening raise is 4x BB..should my preflop raise with AK or AQ be around 8xBB ? say 4$?.. and then say I get 3-4 calls which I will (with low connectors, A-x etc) and I miss the flop, with around 16$ in the pot should my continuation bet be 1/2 to 3/4th pot? meaning 8-12 dollars leaving behind 10-14 in my stack? .. I havent gotten the hang of playing AK or AQ here. A check after missing the flop guarantees one of the fish betting 7-8 dollars if they hit bottom pair or pick even a gutshot.

Its silly with with the capped buy in and the idiotic standard opening raise. Its made me limp in with AK more often than raise with it and I dont know if thats the right play..on the other hand after missing the flop and letting of one barrel followed by another I find myself wiped of my first buy in in one single hand. Just wondering if i'm going about this correctly. I also read someplace online that an Ace or King comes on the flop 20% of the time? that stat seemed a bit exagerated to me.

AK hitting an a or k(or multiples of any of em) on the flop assuming the opponent you're facing doesn't hold an a or a k

6 outs
50 cards left
44/50 chance of not getting a or k on first card
43/49 chance of not getting a or k on second card
42/48 chance of not getting a or k on third card

44/50*43/49*42/48 = 0.67571428571

1-probability of not hitting an a or k on the flop = probability of hitting an a or a k on the flop
1-0.67571428571=0.32428571429



Obviously, you need to reduce this 32% to something more reasonable.
You have to assume your opponent is playing an ace or a king if they called a large bet. Either that or a pocket pair. Or suited connectors. I suppose in the game you described, they could be holding random stuff.

Don't take those calculations like law. I could have messed up. I'm a high school student who plays live poker in the school yard still...

Good luck! Don't let the fishes bite.

Edit:
Do people fold to the 2 dollar raise? Is it guaranteed that it'll be raised 2 dollars? How many people tend to fold on average? Also, would you consider playing a short stack strategy assuming 3 dollar big blind if it's a guaranteed 2 dollar raise? Did you mean raise to 2 dollars or raise by 2 dollars? I think you could do a push fold tactic if it always is raised. Just push in 6x your assumed bb of 3 bucks and shove the rest in on the flop without looking at it Best wait till a more experienced guy comes along

So with a $30 stack and a $2 straddle what's the average open raise size? Does anyone raise or do they just call the straddle? Why are you limited to the stupid capped buy-in amount?

your calculation seemed fine, cheers. That calculation applies to any hole cards I believe. They say you'll hit one of your cards 1/3 times. with the AK you have the added advantage of taking it with a high card ofcourse. so if you're holding AK you're bound to see an Ace or King approx 32% of the time.

Do people fold to the 2 dollar raise?
the 2 Dollar straddle you mean? no surprisingly 80% of the time 5/7 players will call it to see a flop. If everyone tags along for the ride than the fellow who straddles almost always will check and not raise further preflop. Otherwise 20% of the time he'll re-raise another 5$ on top.

Is it guaranteed that it'll be raised 2 dollars?
only 2 players, myself and one other dont straddle. The rest will pretty much every hand.

How many people tend to fold on average?
I hate playing bingo so its always me and this other solid player who dont like calling 2$ straddles with stuff like 10,2 etc which the other fellows do btw . These guys will call the straddle with absolute buttkiss ..J2o, 46o, 10-4o etc..

I'm all for the push strategy you mentioned, just going all in but i'm confused as judging from the amount of calls I will ALways get, whats the chance that those guys after putting me on that range and still call hit one of their cards.. Theres literally no fold equity once they do hit something, they believe they're golden. In the long run will my shove following a miss on the flop be profitable?

@WVHillbilly: most of the time people call the straddle, since they play such a wide range of hands and they're fish they just have to see the flop. but every now and then they'll raise the straddle amount by another 5-6 dollars. They do so mostly with 88+ , any broadway cards ,or high suited cards or even medium suited connectors like 67, 78, 9-10

the capped initial buy in is silly, not sure but its the hosts rule, you can buy in as much as you want after the initial buy in though. 3-4 of the players will be down 400-500$ every game and we play at least 3-4 times a week. Cant believe how they're still sticking to this same type of game, but since I play the exact opposite (tight) its hard for me to tweak my game. Have suffered ridiculous bad beats.