Aces play. Help on this thanks

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nonametoday

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6 max

Cuttof pay big blind

Utg fold
Hero (AA) raise 16
Cuttof fold
Dealer call
Sb fold
BB fold

Dealer has 52, 40, 2,6 preflop stats

FLOP (42) : 4d 8s 9s
Hero bet 31
Dealer call
TURN (104) : Jc
Hero bet 78
Dealer call
RIVER (260) : Ks
Hero check
Button bet 260 (pot)
Hero fold
.
On the river should be bet instead of check fold ?
How often button bluff that river ?
 
E

eazy489

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I assume this is 400 NL. The first thing we need to think about is what is Vilians Calling range on this flop. I think we can assume that A player this agro will be raising good flush draws with a high frequency on the flop, and therefore I think we can take a lot of flush draws out of his range. This is a drawy flop that is hard to put him on a very narrow range , but I think if we consider what villain is calling a 4x raise on the bt preflop and then what he is calling ur c bet with we can include hands like j10, q10, 67, any 9, 8, or even mid pp like 77 or 66. I think we can also rule out 89 or a set bc he is very likely to fast play them on this flop But We can also include some overs that will float u like kq or kj. Against this range , I think the optimal line is to check raise The turn and get it in on the turn. When we check the turn, it will look like we r giving up on a card that is likely to hit his range , plus he is very likely to bet it. It's important to always be thinking about the best possible lines to take, sometimes those lines may include non standard plays.
 
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sunmingtao

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If he had flush draw, why didn't he raise on the flop? If he is a very passive player, I think fold is right on the river.
 
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Durrin

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I also belive fold is the right decision here. He must´ve had something from the start to call you all the way to the river. Not unlikely he flopped a set or two pair
 
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