Is ABC poker the best strategy at Micros ?
What follows isn't a moan about bad beats or variance..
In my last 2 sessions I have lost 6 buy ins (so, 600bb)
KK - cracked by AK
QQ - 3 times, cracked by KK, and 2 sets
Sets on flop - cracked twice by runner/runner full house and 4 of kind.
In these 2 sessions I have had:
AA 4 times, each time everyone folded, either to me in BB or to my 3xbb raise.
AK 3 times when everyone folded to 3xbb raise.
And, while I type this, I have a game going on in the background, and I just lost another buy in to QQ losing to a set, and I have had AA THREE TIMES when everyone just folded, either to 3xbb raise pre flop or a cbet on the flop.
That now makes AA 7 times where I got no action, and QQ cracked 4 times.
The pattern fairly much seems to be:
Good hands tend to either win small amounts of money or lose a lot.
Bad hands that improve will disproportionally take out good hands and win far more.
Most of my wins seem to come from minor hands that miraculously improve against the odds
. I should caveat that by saying that my wins are small, grinding wins. I can spend two hours turning $ 5 into $7, but lose the lot in the space of a couple of hands when I get killed by weaker hands improving.
So, my question is whether the strategy of ABC poker is actually a winning strategy ? It seems far more profitable to play more hands cheaply then look for miracle turn/river cards. Sometimes a complete fish will turn up at the table, play the most random hands and leave a short while later after doubling or tripling up.
The books say loosen up against the fish and bet for value, but I find when I do that I just gift them chips as my hands generally don't improve (especially drawings hands just don't get there), and they call everything and will end up claiming the pot on the river .
Has anyone ever toyed around with playing weak hands OOP and seeing if they do any better than playing tight, in position with premium hands ? If I run the stats of the wild players in my PT database they are nearly all winners.
I'll be updating my blog this weekend, but I can tell you that my figures aren't good. After a month of playing "by the book" ABC poker I am another 100 pounds down, that's about 25 buy in's down (I play 5 euro NL).
I would be interested in thoughts. Thanks.