Originally Posted by Poker_Student
Here's something interesting i did with poker stove today: I only evaluated hands vs a tight UTG raiser who opens about 7% of hands since that's what I open from UTG in 6max. In order to have greater than 50% equity vs. that range, you have to have AKo or better, with TT being the lowest pocket pair with >50% equity. This is not to say that you need 50% equity to make a call profitable, and I think what has been said about calling with pocket pairs is very good advice as long as the raiser has a stack >= 100 big blinds. If he has much less, then set mining isn't worth it to me since we only hit a set about 1 out of 8.5 times, so when we do hit we need to make up for the small losses we take when we don't, hopefully winning a 200+ big blind pot. Against the same 7% range, Pocket 2s have 33.689% equity, Pocket 7s have 36.713%, pocket 8s 41.218%, pocket 9s 45.666%, and pocket Ts + are >50%. Someone suggested calling with hands that have 45-55% equity, and raising with >55% equity. By that logic, it would seem that calling a TAG's UTG raise (7% range) could be done with 99, TT, or any AK, while we would raise with pocket jacks through aces. Since pocket 8s have only ~41% equity, would you guys suggest folding them in this specific situation, since we're up against an overpair enough of the time to be put in a set over set situation, or should we call with lower pocket pairs? If we should call with lower pocket pairs, how low? 22? 77? Why or why not?
Equity is overrated in situations like this. You should call if you get a hand that plays well after the flop. Against a 7% raising range: 99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+
AQo has 45% equity vs this range, but 22 only has 38% equity against this range. However, you should think about folding AQo and call with 22 (if the stack sizes are deep enough). You'll miss the flop very often with AQ, and will be forced to fold. And if you hit, say a pair of A you don't know if you are good, and you won't be able to get any value from TT-KK hands, and lose to AA or AK. On the other hand, 22 misses 87.5% of the flop. But when 22 hits, theres a good chance that the opponent has a good hand (overpair, TPTK) and will pay you off big.
So calling with pocket pairs against a tight raiser is a good play.
Equity is also overrated when raising. You shouldn't be concerned about your equity when you raise, but your equity AFTER the opponent calls you. Consider the same example:
If you 3-bet AKo what will happen? You'll get raised by AA, KK, QQ, hands like TT,99,AK would call you and hands like ATs, AJ, AQ,KQs would probably fold. By raising, you are eliminating all the hands which you dominate, and only leave hands that are at a coinflip or have you dominated. Your equity drops to 46%. You also make it easy for the opponent to play against you hand by 3-betting here. So you should call with your AK and play against a much better range for you.
On the other hand, say you 3-bet a button stealer (40%) who can call your 3-bet with:
88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo
3-betting AK will be much better, since you can get hands which your hand plays well against to the flop. Your equity here is 56.85%, but it's likely higher than that. You can make pocket pairs fold by representing overcards, or get value when you hit top pair with a better kicker.
Also against this button raiser, calling with 22 would be a bad idea, since your implied odds
aren't very good here. Calling with hands like QJ would be a much better idea, since you have a good chance of getting a decent hand (pair Q or J) and that plays well agasint the opponent's range.
Procrastinating for finals urgh....