€50 NL odds & strat for getting AI pre-flop

Hey guys, I was playing some 50NL today, haven't played that in a month or so, and it got me thinking about 5-bet/shove strategies.

It seems to me most people, nits and 18/15 or 20/17 tags would only get it all in pre with KK,AA or AK (and for the sake of this point, that can be extended to 4-betting as well, not that many 4-betting light). No QQ or anything else.

So I'm trying to find out when to get all in with them, based on equity. It depends on who does the 4-bet, of course.

So, let's create 2 scenarios where I'm holding QQ, assuming 100BB stacks.

1) Villain opens for €2, I 3-bet for €6, villain 4-bets to €15. If I shove here I'm betting €44 to win an €100 pot (assuming villain always calls, of course that doesn't happen but I think most times they do) so pot odds for me are 2.27:1 while QQ odds against his range is 2.5:1 , therefor I should fold.

2) I open for €2, villain 3-bets for €6, I 4-bet to €15, villain shoves. Now I have to call €35 to win €100, so 2.85:1 pot odds with my 2.5:1 hand, so I should call.

Also, in the second scenario, about the same odds against villain's KK+, AK range exist for smaller pocket pairs, even 22 would be profitable there. Does that mean we should call with them, should the situation arrise? (not that I ever 4-bet smal PP's, just for the sake of discussion)

Am I correct or totally off here? Is my math right?

I apologize if this has been covered before, I'm just trying to understand the math here in order to make +EV plays, for 50NL.

I'm not good with the math, but I can tell you that it would be much better to do the 5-bet than to call the 5-bet. Your math is off somewhere....either that or you're just totally forgetting about fold equity.

So I know I didn't make any sense....but there is no way you can have better odds to call a 5bet than to make a 5bet.

Wes747 said:

I'm not good with the math, but I can tell you that it would be much better to do the 5-bet than to call the 5-bet. Your math is off somewhere....either that or you're just totally forgetting about fold equity.

So I know I didn't make any sense....but there is no way you can have better odds to call a 5bet than to make a 5bet.

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I did take fold equity out of the equation, as mentioned. Do you see many people 4-bet then fold to a shove at 50NL? Perhaps there are significant numbers for fold equity to be a big factor, and I'm just making the wrong assumption...

I guess you're right. I'd have to look, but I can't really think of a time when someone folded to a 5-betshove. People don't really 4bet light at 50nl that I'm aware of.

Wes747 said:

I guess you're right. I'd have to look, but I can't really think of a time when someone folded to a 5-betshove. People don't really 4bet light at 50nl that I'm aware of.

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Some people did in my last games but at 20NL. I know there are types of players, nitty ones especially that will only shove or 4-bet KK,AA,AK, so I guess I just have to figure out those types

I think you've got your terminology a bit confused...

"1) Villain opens for €2, I 3-bet for €6, villain 4-bets to €15."

€2 = bet 1 (bet)
€6 = bet 2 (raise)
€15 = bet 3 (3bet)

"I open for €2, villain 3-bets for €6, I 4-bet to €15"

€2 = bet 1 (bet)
€6 = bet 2 (raise)
€15 = bet 3 (3 bet)


For me it would depend on stats - if they have 3 bet regularly (more than 1/2/3 times generally) I'd probably be more than happy with QQ.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

I think you've got your terminology a bit confused...

"1) Villain opens for €2, I 3-bet for €6, villain 4-bets to €15."

€2 = bet 1 (bet)
€6 = bet 2 (raise)
€15 = bet 3 (3bet)

"I open for €2, villain 3-bets for €6, I 4-bet to €15"

€2 = bet 1 (bet)
€6 = bet 2 (raise)
€15 = bet 3 (3 bet)


For me it would depend on stats - if they have 3 bet regularly (more than 1/2/3 times generally) I'd probably be more than happy with QQ.

Click to expand...

Actually, he's got it right.

BB = bet
€2 = raise
€6 = 3bet
€15 = 4bet

Ah my bad - wasn't thinking properly, was early!