3betting bluff optimal hands vs exploitable opponents

duggs

duggs

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Yeah if you can they will have a higher % success rate, although cold 4bet bluff opportunities are pretty rare so sometimes we cant just wait to choose the best hands to do it with unlike when we are bluff 3 betting late position opens in the blinds. But stuff like AT,AJ, KT, etc - hands that aren't good enough to call are gonna be pretty good candidates!

Yea i thought so, i was also having a discussion with a mate whether you should 3bet bluffing with nut blockers or with hands that can flop equity and are unlikely to be dominated. he seemed to like suited connectors as the time you are called you can sometimes flop enough equity to barrel off and not mind calls.

Against opponents that only 4bet/fold oop blockers are obv best when ip, but for agaisnt opponents that call 3bets too much both in and out of position do you just widen your 3bet value range and completely remove bluffs? or 3bet suited connectors hoping to win with a cbet/have equity when cbet is called. Am i right thinking that vs these opponents Ax/Kx blockers lose their value as they turn into dominated hands as opponents call 3bets too much?
 
acky100

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ahhhhhh not this again, i'm tired and have an exam in the morning so dont wanna give all my opinions on this as last time i spent like an hour ranting about it when drunk, but i'm sure bluenowhere and campbell will be able to remember where abouts them threads are.

Here's one where i think i kind of put across why i think 3betting as a bluff hands like Ax and Kx are way better, i think its around half way down we start discussing it.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/50-nlhe-full-ring-67suuuuited-btn-210043/


Basically i just don't think theres much need to 3bet hands like that at FR or 6max, game flow may allow you to once in a while but i think its sub-optimal when you think how small the chances of domination are, not to mention they don't actually flop great hands often at all and can get you into a ton more trouble as you could be drawing dead to bigger draws or just struggling to play weak flopped draws which will be the majority of the draws you flop.


Opponents that call 3bets too much though, you're bang on the money there, 3bet value range widens (simple right?) If they're calling 70% of 3bets then yeah you don't need to 3bet bluff these guys, cause you cant! 3bet hands like AK,AQ,AJ,KQ, TT+, all for value. Widen it depending on how often he calls 3bets and how often he raises from the position in the first place. If someones really never folding to 3bets and opening a fairly wide range then you can 3bet all sorts of stuff like QJs, KTs, etc as when you flop TP you will be happy to stack as he's calling with dominated hands like T9s, J9, and so on.

I'm going to bed before i continue ranting!
 
duggs

duggs

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yea the discussion in that thread is pretty epic and is what started this one. I wanted to try figure it out by myself before asking for additional help so thats why i let the old one die and started this one.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Hands like A4 are impossible to get value with in 3-bet pots, prolly offers RIO more than anything. Give me a small pair or suited connector, so I can at least clearly know my hand strength.

Idk, I was never a big blockers guy when 3-bet bluffing, just because those get called often enough where how your hand plays postflop matters. 4-bet hands I started considering it of value.
 
acky100

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Hands like A4 are impossible to get value with in 3-bet pots, prolly offers RIO more than anything. Give me a small pair or suited connector, so I can at least clearly know my hand strength.

Idk, I was never a big blockers guy when 3-bet bluffing, just because those get called often enough where how your hand plays postflop matters. 4-bet hands I started considering it of value.

eew :)

Domination is such a little concern.

We feel alright hitting tp with A4 in a 3bet pot, especially IP where we can pot control. Villain will probably stab at a pot on one street without an A and not barrel.

We 3bet bluff to get folds anyways, anything that helps this have a higher success rate would be most logical. We can call profitably against wide ranges with suited connectors in most 3bet bluff spots so 3betting when you can call profitably can only be for value, we all know suited connectors play much better with high stack to pot ratios.

Don't even get me started on small pocket pairs, last time me and dustin argued about this for 2 hours straight :D
 
John A

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Agree with Acky. Pretty much what I've been teaching students for years. Blockers + hands with showdown value when you connect are much better than SC's. When you hit top pair with a suited connector, you rarely know if you still have the best hand. Plus you have turn and river cards where you can still out draw your opponent when you have hands like A4o and you opponent check/calls the flop with JJ on a 2 5 T flop.
 
c9h13no3

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We 3bet bluff to get folds anyways, anything that helps this have a higher success rate would be most logical.
Be quantitative. How many more folds do you think we get?

Plus you have turn and river cards where you can still out draw your opponent when you have hands like A4o and you opponent check/calls the flop with JJ on a 2 5 T flop.
This an arguement for the suited connector, ducy?
 
John A

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Be quantitative. How many more folds do you think we get?

This an arguement for the suited connector, ducy?

I think you know that you have less chance of hitting runner runner straight or flush than you do of hitting a pair.
 
c9h13no3

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I think you know that you have less chance of hitting runner runner straight or flush than you do of hitting a pair.
Yes, but not every flop is T52r.

Suited connectors flop more 4+ out draws postflop, and when you hit those draws you can actually collect. If you're arguing "A4 allows me to occasionally suckout against a strong 3-bet calling range", then SCs allow you to suckout more often and win more when you do.

This essentially comes down to what you value more: a small increase in preflop fold equity or a large increase in postflop playability. Maybe this is just because I played a laggier game (so my 3-bets were called more often), or because I spent a huge chunk of my nlhe experience playing 200bb tables, but for me the choice is easy.
 
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If opponent is exploitable and conditions are right (high fold to 3bet and straight forward post flop player, good position etc..), your cards are meaningless. 3bet bluffing is centered on fold equity, not show down equity. If you get lucky and flop a monster ... great!
 
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andrewsz1991

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Yeah you'er 3 betting to the player not to the cards. You're looking to take it down right there in most cases.
 
acky100

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To the two guys above:

Yeah, you are kind of right, cards dont matter to an extent if they're exploitable, but even if they are exploitable with ATC, 3bettting A4o is going to show higher EV than 67s just because we actually block a nice part of their calling range, so they actually fold more often? make sense?

I know 67s will flop some equity now and again, but a lot of the time this equity relies on fold equity and when people have pretty tight calling ranges to start with, (because you're 3betting them expecting folds right??) your fold equity goes bye bye, and if he's calling too much 3bets then the last thing we ever want to do is 3bet a hand like 67s! you might think you flop equity a lot, but most of this stuff you flop is really weak draws, even the best flop you can expect really, say a flush draw on the flop, with 67s we arent drawing to the nuts and anything our opponent is likely to stack with is going to have us crushed anyways, i just think people see it as a pretty hand and get into trouble post flop because they try some fancy move against some guys QQ and get it in with 36%, sometimes flipping but still, opening ourselves up for pointless mistakes when our plan pre flop was to steal a mighty 4bb's.
 
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I agree that the AXs is better than the 56s, but for the purpose of 3bet bluffing I am looking at opponents fold to 3bet stat to see a above 80% fold rate. I am also looking for MP2 or later position for the opener. That way I amfacing a wide range and can expect a fold near 90% regardless of what cards I am holding. If the opener was opening earlier, or we had callers, my range would have to change to hands with equity and blockers.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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but a lot of the time this equity relies on fold equity
Uh, wat? That makes no sense. Fold equity and pot equity are totally seperate.

I want to make three points.

1) You can play sc's two ways, semibluffing or trying to cheaply make your draw. You dont always have to semibluff postflop (and often if villain calls a 3-bet, you shouldn't). Thats what makes SC's so hard to play. They can be played either of these ways, and often newbies pick the wrong one.

2) Postflop equity (and how the hand plays) adds to your EV just like more fold equity from the ace blocker does. You're just neglecting it because its harder to quantify. But having a hand that plays miles better than A4o in a three bet pot helps.

3) Or to put all this in math form...

EV = (Pot*Fold%) - (3betSize*4Bet%) + (PostflopEV*Call%)

You are focusing on the first two terms of the equation (how often our opponent folds or 4-bets) and you're neglecting the postflop term. And for stakes up to at least 1/2, that postflop term is significant, since most opponents will still be calling a decent chunk of three bets.

Blocker hands would be all we three bet if our opponents never called. But that world doesn't exist. Being able to flop profitable equity in the event we get called is pretty important when 3-bet bluffing.

I'd also like to talk about this on Skype.
 
acky100

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I'd like to talk about it in skype too,

what i meant by pot equity relying on fold equity is, when you flop these weak draws in 3bet pots, you don't have enough pot equity to be happy calling down or check raising etc, as the more pot equity we have the cheaper a price we have on our bluffs, but without much fold equity our pot equity is a bit more worthless.

pot equity + fold equity = EV , i think the two are very related, if we only have 40% fold equity and no pot equity then a pot sized bluff would not be profitable but if we had 12% pot equity and 40% fold equity it would be.

Also when we do get called in 3bet pots with 67s a lot of our opponents range is also big hands that dominate us, 9Ts even crushes us, TJs,KJs etc etc.

I'm not totally against it because i do think its a +EV move and i will 3bet stuff like 97s , T7s against people when i havent 3bet them in a while but what is the point in 3betting 67s against someone who is presumably giving up a lot preflop when we can just flat call against wide ranges and ch/r flops and ch/r turns and make a cbet or two whilst keeping the SPR smaller for us, which is what we want when we are relying on fold equity combined with our pot equity.
 
duggs

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Keep posting in this thread tho please, makes for a very interesting read
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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You're missing two things acky.

1) We don't always semibluff with our sc's. In fact, most of the time we're using them to make two pair or better as cheaply as possible. Hence the reason why people will often 3-bet small pairs (because they make two pair or better fairly often).

2) Our opponent's calling range is always going to dominate us when they call our bluff 3-bets, no matter if we 3-bet with A4o or 65s. However, 65s has more equity against a range of QQ+/AK, and it's *much* easier for 65s to make two pair or better and get paid when it hits. And when our opponent calls our 3-bet, two pair or better is the hand we should be looking to make.
 
acky100

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I think 3betting small pairs is even worse than 3betting suited connectors by a mile. The only time i will 3bet a hand like 44 is if i'm planning on 5bet shoving if i get 4bet.

How often do we actually make 2pair or better with a hand like 67s on the flop? I'm guessing its about 4%? Struggling to see how we make money waiting for 2 pair or better if we're losing 10bb's most times we flop something weak and get a little bit of pressure applied to us.

Lol this argument can go on forever, like i say, i dont hate it in certain situations but i'd rather use something that makes our 3bet bluffs work more often, actually flops showdown value now and again and where we won't be faced with tough decisions when we flop a weak draw and don't know if we can semi bluff, have the implied odds to call, or if we're just being straight owned by a better draw.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I think 3betting small pairs is even worse than 3betting suited connectors by a mile. The only time i will 3bet a hand like 44 is if i'm planning on 5bet shoving if i get 4bet.
This really is a standard play, so why are you saying its worse? Its better than 3-betting SCs because you make sets on the flop, while SCs typically require you see the turn to make hands bigger than two pair. 3-betting small pairs from the blinds is a bread & butter play against button raises.
How often do we actually make 2pair or better with a hand like 67s on the flop? I'm guessing its about 4%?
The turn and river is what matters, and 56s has about 20% equity against aces. We can always see the turn by just not cbetting, and we'll see the river if we cbet and then check back the turn. Its not that hard to realize that equity if we choose not to semibluff with it.

And I'll get to your other points when Im not on a touch screen.
 
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