This is a discussion on 2NL Hand Analysis within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Hello I've been playing 2NL and I came upon these two hands and I was wondering if it was the right fold that I made..
Ugh, the first hand I hate the SPR on the flop that deep. An SPR of 11 is just about the worst possible thing for a one pair hand. This is especially true with an opponent who is obviously on the loose aggressive side and when we are out of position. God, I hate to say it, but I might flat the BB with Aces here to keep a higher SPR. It is going to be a little easier to play with an SPR of 34. I don't want to stack-off this deep on this board, and I am probably facing a near pot-sized (70% pot) river all-in when I call the turn. I fold.
The second hand is against a complete unknown. Again, we have an SPR near 13 and are out of position with a one pair hand. All that said, the river bet closes the action, so we only have to be good 25% of the time. The river card is not the best card for our hand. I think I am a fish and call here. What he shows up with will help me define his range in future hands. He could be playing T-9 or something here. I expect to lose a lot of the time, when I call, but whatever.
What makes this so tricky is the sky high SPR. Here, you don't want to be playing for stacks with an overpair. Unforch, the vill doesn't seem to want to co-operate in playing a small pot. Pre, I'd like to see a larger 3!, something like 15 -- 20BB over the top. Even if all that gets you is the dead money, take it and be happy you didn't get those aces cracked.
How I would proceed depends on what I know about this vill. Pre, he open/calls a 3-bet coming from an OOP player. Would he take that into consideration by giving you a strong 3-bet range here? This deep, he could certainly justify a pre-flop call to speculate on implied odds with pocket pairs. The two-flush on board would give him less incentive to attempt a slow play with a set.
While 110 hands aren't statistically significant, could he be loose and aggressive enough to play something like kings or queens like that? Would he do this with something like (A,J-c) now that he has TPTK + NFD? Have you seen him barrel in similar situations with a hand that can't beat pocket aces?
Unless I knew my vill, my inclination would be to ditch the aces to the flop raise. Pocket aces are tough to get away from, but what can he have on that flop? Pocket kings or queens need to worry about aces, which is a very likely hand given the OOP 3-bet. Unless he's a borderline maniac, I wouldn't expect him to get so rambunctious with those overpairs. With TPTK + NFD, he could just call the flop c-bet and hope it's good as is, or that he can help on the cheap.
That 2c on 4th either helped his hand or he's not afraid of it. Given the OOP 3-bet, there aren't many suited hands in your range: (A,K-c) (A,Q-c) (A,J-c) and that's about it. Even if you had such a hand, he'd know he has 10 outs to a boat if he flopped a set.
Against most opponents, it's time to go when he leads 4th. I'd have to really know my vill before I'd credit him with a float here. If he bluffs you off the best hand, yeay for him! You know what they call players who can't be bluffed, don't you? How do they do?
This hand is a bit less problematic. Pretty standard until the river. Here, what do you know about the vill? A typical player who wakes up on the river like that either had a strong hand on the flop and was slow playing, he hit something along the way, or he's decided to launch a desperation bluff. There's no flush possibilities, and the straight draws didn't get there. Unless he flopped the straight, he didn't complete. Since you're getting a little better than 3 : 1 here, you only need to be right 25%. Unless I knew the vill would never make this play without an ace or better, my inclination would be to call it, especially if other players were astute enough to be observing from the sidelines. I wouldn't want to be seen as a push-over to river leads.
June 12th, 2017, 10:13 PM
Online Poker at: pokerstars
I think I would have folded as well. In the first hand, you may have been staring down the barrel of a flush; possibly JJ. CO obviously had something....unless you have additional data on this player because you were at the same table for several hours....but assuming this was early and you do not have a good read on CO's range, you did the right thing folding.
In the second hand, it seems far easier a fold....your JJ may have been up against Ax....not a blockbuster hand, but ahead of yours.