200NL unbeatable? Why?
So, I'm thinking about grinding 200NL at a casino near where I live. 200NL is the lowest limit they offer and the game I am currently have the BR for. My goal is the move up to 400NL, 500NL, and up.
However, when I google 200NL, I see a lot of threads in other forums talking about how it is unbeatable in the long run due to it's high rake. And this has always confused me. Isn't the object of playing poker-especially cash games-to show a profit for it? Does it matter how much the rake is, as long as you have some profit to show at the end of it?
Lets say I grind 200NL for 6 months:
-I play 6 hours a day @ 25 hands/hour = 150 hands/day
-I play 20 days out of the month = 3000 hands/month
-I play for 6 months = 18K hands/6 months
-At the end of it all, my total profit is: $750
($750/18000)x100/2 = 2BBs/100
As for the casino rake:
-Rake is $4 ($3 dropped + $1 BBJ)
-No flop, No drop. Say, 1/4th of hands per hour is being raked = 6 hands/hour
-6 hands/hour x 6 = 36 raked hands/day
-36 RH/day x 20 days = 720 RH/month
-720 RH/month x 6 = 4,320 RH/6 months
-4,320 x $4 = $17,280 casino rakes/6 months
So, the casino is raking in a lot of money during my 6 month grind, but how is that affecting me if I'm still showing a profit? Am I really concerned with how much the casino is raking in compared to how much I am making? I guess that's what has always confused me: If I'm making a profit, then what does it matter what the rake is in the end? As long as my money earned is more than what I invested, then I'm good.
My only thinking, and maybe I'm answering my own questions with this, is that 200NL being unbeatable only applies to those looking to make a living grinding 200NL. I am not looking to make a living off of 200NL because I have a steady income that takes care of my living expenses. 200NL, or making money through poker in general, is simply an added bonus but not necessary to sustain my living conditions. In my example above, I would've only been making a little over $1/hour in my 6 month grind which, obviously, isn't enough to make a living off of.
So, as a recreational player, who is looking to move up in stakes but only when my BR allows it, does this really apply to me? Again, if I'm showing a profit, then I'm good, right?