re: Poker & 10NL-AA pair against a strong line, river decision
Originally Posted by thepokerkid123
Can't reasonably put him on just the Q. The only Q's that raise the flop are AQ/KQ/QQ and we've got some serious card removal on them and we're getting 2:1 on the call.
There are definately draws and bluffs in his range on the flop.
I can see vilian reraising flop with QJ and QT
I dont think he is bluffing
1. he is OOP and certainly knows how to bet preflop. If he were a more bluffy player I think he would 3bet rather than call. Call says small PP or trash suited hand. So thats saying to me that he is calling hoping to hit rather than trying to bluff preflop.#
2. He then C/R bad players always put you on AK or a flush draw on this board and feel they need to reraise. The raise size isnt big I dont think he has AQ/KQ they bet bigger when C/R but also 3bet more often preflop.
3. His bet size is tiny on the turn. This looks to me like the K was a scare card, he is betting it as a block. He dosent want you to make a big bet here because he wants to see a showdown but also feels there is a good chance you might fold to a K. (this probably isnt a good bet on his part because if you have AA you wont fold. If you have KK QQ you wont fold. You might fold JJ and TT etc which he beats.) If you have AQ or KQ you wont fold so his bet here is really only folding out hands he beats
At the same time it gives a pretty nice price for a draw so if he thinks you are on a draw he isnt really charging you and if he thinks you have a made hand he is locking in hands that beat him and folding out hands he beats.
this half pot turn bet just says to me "weak queen"
If he held TPTK or better on the turn after you called the flop reraise he would either bet bigger or check depending on whether he wanted to go for pot control or not. This is a please let me see a cheap SD bet.
4. His river bet size is back up. Now that says to me "ooh I'm ahead again.. I wish Id made that turn bet bigger"
5. could it be a bluff with a missed draw.. well if it were its a really bad place to do it because you really only beat other missed draws. He has the nut missed draw so if the hand gets checked back he probably wins it. After seeing you call a flop raise (a small one) then call a turn bet does he really think you fold a Q or a K? Maybe he does and he is bluffing but its just such a bad spot to do it that you have to think this is a value bet.
So where did it all go wrong?
preflop is OK
Flop call is fine. If he were much more agressive then I would reraise him back expecting him to shove anything he deemed good enough to CR.
Turn his small bet here says to me he is exiting the hand. If he bets the river we expect it to be in the same region as he bets the turn so I would reraise him here. I think he has a hand and I think he may see it as you trying to rep the king just as he is and so if he has the weak queen he probably makes a call here. I raise a little over a min raise here.
River.. well with the bigger turn bet the river is easier to play ... if he pots the river it basically becomes a shove. He dosent shove that river without a queen or a full house. You have an easier fold because 10NL players dont bluff shove all that much.
I think you lost value on the turn.
Had he checked the river I would bet 1/3 pot looking for a call from a weak queen. If he check shoved I would probably fold .. there arent many 10NL players aggressive enough to do this as a bluff.