$1/$2 Live Game: JJ v LAG

Had this hand come up in the first 10 minutes of live play at the Mirage last Saturday. I'll give my actions and explain my thinking. Interested to hear feedback on both.

It was 9 am. Villain was a woman who'd been there all night apparently. (one of a few at the table) She had $800 in front of her, so those two facts indicated a good player. In the few hands I'd witnessed, she splashed around a lot, wasn't afraid to put her stack to use, etc.

In early position, I am dealt :Jd: :Js: and raise the pot to $12.
Folds to Villain on the button who calls. Based on the information I had at the time, my thinking is her range is wide. I also am aware that she will likely see me as a tourist with a new stack to plunder.
Pot is $27

Flop comes
So far, so good. I lead with a cbet of $20, Villain calls. My thinking at this point is that the Villain may have a little piece (10-9, 6-5, etc) or a mid pair. Or, she may just be floating me. Not sure whether she's the type to raise w a set to try to stack the donk (me) if he has an overpair, so can't eliminate the set, though unlikely.
Pot is $67

Turn is
I check the pot, expecting the Villain to bet. My plan was to check/call the turn and lead out again on most rivers. My thinking was to exercise some pot control on the turn.
Villain checked behind me, which surprised me. Made me think she may have some sort of low straight draw or that she had the middle pair w showdown value. I eliminate the chances of a monster w her turn check. I'm pretty sure my hand is good going to the river, only card I fear is an Ace.
Pot is $67

River is
Unless she had 10-9, I'm confident my hand is good at this point. (not saying it was, but I believed it was). I pause for a bit considering options. Almost led out $35 - and usually do in this type of situation. But decided that she was the type of player who would bet this for me given that I'd shown weakness and was fresh meat to the table. Wasn't sure if I'd CR her bet or simply check call at that point, wanted to see how she reacted.
So, I checked to her and with no hesitation, she cut out $81 as a bet.
In my mind, the overbet polarized her range. She either had a big hand such as the 2 pair, possibly hitting trips on the river, etc OR she was pouncing on the weakness just as I had expected / enticed.
Pot is $148.
With the overbet, I did not feel a CR was in order, so I called.
As played, my line looks very passive w the turn checks and the check/call river.

Thoughts on how I played it, my thinking along the way, etc Regardless of what she had and the results of the hand, want to make sure I learn. Thanks.

Bet turn to protect from 9T type hand. Also there are a lot of scare cards to come on river. AKQT9 maybe 5 r all cards u dont want to see, they all seem to fit her flop calling range. She could have AK calling your cbet. So to avoid tough play on river bet turn. Also c/raise is not an option on rivers, you r beating her and she fold(you win same amount as if u called) or she has u beat and u loose more money wheb she calls.
S
I am responding on phone, sry if responded twice. First reply idk if it went

My turn thinking was influenced by trying to not play too big a pot w the overpair. In the cash game, my toughest decisions are facing a re-raise on the turn or river with an overpair to the board. thus, the attempt at pot control. If the pot is smaller, the river bet/raise is smaller, thus less risk.

I know I sacrifice value on the hands I'm not up against the set, but I also limit the big loss scenario.

Probably a sucky reasoning. How do you guys balance extracting value v. not paying off too much on the flopped set scenario?

Really appreciate the feedback. glad I found this forum.

i would have bet/fold the river. i also would have folded to the big river bet. jj here is merely a bluff catch. did you see her bluff river before?

Your reasoning sounds fairly sound, but I would fire $35 at that turn pretty often because the flop was ragged enough to cause alot of people to float. Definate fold to significant action after that turn bet. Did she turn A4? It seems like the most likely non-bluff hand, as played.

Agree on the flop being very "float worthy". Hell, if I were her, I'd be suspicious of me hitting the flop too. Especially w me new at the table and I'm sure my look screaming Vegas tourist. (can't help it, I was a Vegas tourist!)

On the turn, my thinking is I'm either way ahead of her (her with either a pocket under pair, possibly a raggy Ace that matched her rag, or a suited connector that matched) or way behind her (flopped set). One of us likely has very few outs. I do understand that giving her "infinity to 1" odds on her few outs by checking the turn is bad. But I also know losing too much $$ when I have an overpair to a flopped set is a big issue for me.

If I bet the $35 on the turn and she put in a CR, how often do you give her credit and give up the JJ? Calling in that situation (she comes over top for $100 lets say) seems weak. Putting in another bet would only get paid off by a better hand.

As for my sense of her, at the time, it was based on watching a couple hands before I joined the table and maybe 1 orbit. I did see her go to war w a guy on a live straddle with pocket 2s. She bet him aggressively pre-flop and again on the flop. Then, she got lucky and hit a 2 on the turn. Lucky for him, the guy (who had 2 pair on the flop) only had $150 at the start of the hand. So that one hand colored my thinking considerably. (which is why I purposely enticed the bet on the river - I was sure she would bet it, just did not fully expect the overbet)

Btw, the overbet made it interesting. Really felt that polarized her range. Pure bluff or a monster that she was trying to get more value from.

I'll reveal the results later today. many thanks!

Chances are she is raising with a made hand against you. Some ppl like putting pressure on new player at table but you bet flop you bet turn, that looks like JJ or better. She really has no clue if you are able to fold a hand like that so chances r if she does raise she has a hand she feels is winning. I don't picture her bluffing at you yet. I picture her playing some kind of connecting 9, 9T 9J 98 etc.

i think you not betting turn really set her up to play river at her own leisure. You look weak by checking twice so she now can bluff or you let her get there and now she is trying to get extra out of y. River at this stage on the table is tough call. Do you know what she had?

I was attempting to play pot control w the JJ after the flop. Again, my biggest losses come in hands like this one - where I have a big PP that remains overs to the board. But maybe this line isn't the right way to combat that leak. (maybe it, too, is a leak!)

Anyway, I very much knew that my turn check was going to be red meat to her - at least based on the small sample size I had to judge her on. I was suprised she checked back on the turn.

When I decided to check the river as well, I was certain she'd bet and that I'd be in check/call mode. Found her bet sizing interesting.

Anyway, I called her down and she showed the A-5. So, she had a piece of the flop w the Ace. Interestingly enough, she may have been playing pot control herself on the turn.

I'll have to continue to think on how to best play hands like this to not lose value, yet not lose a ton against a lucky flop. Appreciate all the feedback.

You played the hand exactly as a 'tourist' would that has some idea about what c-betting is, c-bet the flop and then check it down. Her bet does polarize her hand but about the only hands I can see the villain playing here, that have us beat, are T9 or A4 and these only make up a small number of combos in her range. If villain had AA, KK or a set I'd think that she'd try to get some value on the turn. Villain's river bet isn't that out-of-whack here, I'd think that she would get a fair number of 'tourist' hero calls from AK,AQ type hands and just as many 'tourist' laydowns from JJ, 88, 77 hands.

Thanks Jilly. I actually did LOL at the tourist comment. Exactly what I want to progress past.

Fwiw, I do fairly well most of the time when playing live poker (find it much easier to make money at than when I played online prior to Black Friday). But I know I'm missing value too often. My intent on this hand wasn't to check it down necessarily, but to keep the pot sized medium. The few times I've had bad sessions have typically been due to paying off sets when I have an overpair. So, I've started going for 2 streets of value rather than 3 in those situations.

The river check was more about me being fairly sure I had the best hand at that point, fairly sure she would bet in to me, and fairly sure that was my best way to get value. Avoids her folding to a bet or doing a CR w a big hand.

What are you (and others) thoughts on getting max value from overpairs, yet not stacking off to set miners?

Rickman said:

What are you (and others) thoughts on getting max value from overpairs, yet not stacking off to set miners?

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In a casino, without reads, I'm betting overpairs 2/3 pot on most boards on the flop and then 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot on the turn depending on flop action and turn card. But this is the way I'd be playing almost all of my hands from overcards to TP to 2P to sets. Unless proven otherwise I consider all players in a casino live $1/$2 game as 'tourists'. Tourists like to play so I let them play for a nice price. I'm really not too concerned about set mining since 'tourists' will usually give away their hands before it gets too expensive.

Jillychemung said:

In a casino, without reads, I'm betting overpairs 2/3 pot on most boards on the flop and then 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot on the turn depending on flop action and turn card. But this is the way I'd be playing almost all of my hands from overcards to TP to 2P to sets. Unless proven otherwise I consider all players in a casino live $1/$2 game as 'tourists'. Tourists like to play so I let them play for a nice price. I'm really not too concerned about set mining since 'tourists' will usually give away their hands before it gets too expensive.

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Thanks Jilly. Sounds like I've been too concerned on the occasional monster. And, I need to be watching their actions for reads to escape when the rare monster does surface.

I am trying to get out of this mindset, but I think that a lot of players will put opponents on a better hand and THEN try to reason themselves out of the pot. Why not do the math? Your jacks will win 80% of the time of that flop against 1 player. If she had two pairs she would def raise on the turn. I think you could have bet there and the hand would have ended. She called on the button, so unless you have a read, a hand like Ax is well within her range. Even if she is an unknown, I doubt she will call with Aces and try to trap you on the flop. She knows you are new and if you raised, you more than likely have a hand you want to play. No re-raise from her meant weakness and that is exactly what she showed the entire hand.