Osmann
Rock Star
Silver Level
I don't see the point in playing games where you don't hold a small edge, so I never play roulette or blackjack. And the "theories" of how to bust Blackjack and roulette are not made by people who use them themself, CAUSE THEY DO NOT WORK! I've read a lot of theese theories and every single one of them are based on wrong math.
joosebuck
Legend
Silver Level
The roulette one I read doesn't seem that far fetched..
Start with a small bet, like .50 cents or $1, bet on red. Keep betting it until you lose, and every time you lose you triple the bet. Since there will be no infinite string of blacks, you will eventually win and be ahead of where you started.
The only thing is, strings of 5-10 blacks in a row aren't too uncommon, so you need to be able to back those strings of blacks in order to win in the long run.
For example, 6 losses in a row of a starting bet of $1 would make your 7th bet have to be 729 dollars.
1, 3, 9, 27, 81, 243, 729.
I'm trying it out with a bet of ten cents, because I dont have a 10 grand bankroll, haha. After a short while, I'm up $30 dollars or so.
Start with a small bet, like .50 cents or $1, bet on red. Keep betting it until you lose, and every time you lose you triple the bet. Since there will be no infinite string of blacks, you will eventually win and be ahead of where you started.
The only thing is, strings of 5-10 blacks in a row aren't too uncommon, so you need to be able to back those strings of blacks in order to win in the long run.
For example, 6 losses in a row of a starting bet of $1 would make your 7th bet have to be 729 dollars.
1, 3, 9, 27, 81, 243, 729.
I'm trying it out with a bet of ten cents, because I dont have a 10 grand bankroll, haha. After a short while, I'm up $30 dollars or so.
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
Osmann
Rock Star
Silver Level
This is the most common "theory" of making a profit on blackjack and roulette, and it does not work. Lets say you have the funds to back a loosing streak of 7 losses and you are playing red every time and it never hits 00. Every time you win you start from 1 again.
every time you strt from 1 you will hit a loosing streak every 1 in 128, win nr. 7 1 in 64, win nr. 6 1 in 32 (you get the idea).(edit: nr. is the number of the bet you make in that session. If you have lost 6 bets in a row, you are making bet nr 7.)
So the math goes like this. your loosing streak will cost you: 1 + 3 + 9 + 27 + 81 + 243 + 729 = 1093
Your winnings between the loosing streaks will be: 1*64 + (3-1)*32 + (9-4)*16 + (27-13)*8 + (81-40)*4 + (243-121)*2 + (729-243)*1=1093
So if you were playing coin toss you would neither loose nor win money, but you're not. There's still the chance of hitting 00, wich swings in the favour of the casino. It's like reversed lottery. You will win most of the times, but when you loose, you will loose big.
every time you strt from 1 you will hit a loosing streak every 1 in 128, win nr. 7 1 in 64, win nr. 6 1 in 32 (you get the idea).(edit: nr. is the number of the bet you make in that session. If you have lost 6 bets in a row, you are making bet nr 7.)
So the math goes like this. your loosing streak will cost you: 1 + 3 + 9 + 27 + 81 + 243 + 729 = 1093
Your winnings between the loosing streaks will be: 1*64 + (3-1)*32 + (9-4)*16 + (27-13)*8 + (81-40)*4 + (243-121)*2 + (729-243)*1=1093
So if you were playing coin toss you would neither loose nor win money, but you're not. There's still the chance of hitting 00, wich swings in the favour of the casino. It's like reversed lottery. You will win most of the times, but when you loose, you will loose big.
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joosebuck
Legend
Silver Level
Stay away unless you can back like 15 losses. My good friend burnt 120 bucks very fast.
A way I found to cut down the variance in it is to not only bet black, but bet even as well. You will break even more often than not, but you wont lose several in a row like you can with just the 50/50. You are 25% to win, 50% to tie and 25% to lose (slightly more because of 0 or whatever). But I guess it's less likely to have 7 red/odds in a row than to have just 7 reds in a row.
A way I found to cut down the variance in it is to not only bet black, but bet even as well. You will break even more often than not, but you wont lose several in a row like you can with just the 50/50. You are 25% to win, 50% to tie and 25% to lose (slightly more because of 0 or whatever). But I guess it's less likely to have 7 red/odds in a row than to have just 7 reds in a row.
joshyb20
Visionary
Silver Level
Scratch that. I decided to stick it through. I was down 10 from earlier. So I decided to win that back. Ended up going down 100 total. I know I know. Shut up. So in combination of the frustration of bad beats in poker, and my run of bad luck at roulette, I decided to deposit 100 more. Next thing I know, I was UP 500!!!!! I immediately cashed all but 50. From there I proceded to ride it up to 150, where I currently am. What an amazing turn of events!
joshyb20
Visionary
Silver Level
Thanks. And nope, roulette. I ended up lucky. I was on major tilt. Could have busted the bank if it lasted much longer. I called a friend when I was up 500, they were like "Cash out...NOW!" That's a bad habit of mine. I'll get up big and not cash out. Next thing I know its gone. Luckily for me, that wasn't the case.
joosebuck
Legend
Silver Level
up $74 bucks today from roulette alone. it's quick easy cash... i try not to play for more than 10 minutes at a time, because you're more likely to hit the long bad streaks the longer you play.
poker is the steady cash whereas roulette gets me my buy-ins back and then some
poker is the steady cash whereas roulette gets me my buy-ins back and then some
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
ok...sorry to bring this up yet again, but i've been thinking about this method.
Osmann you have a good point as to how the casino gets their edge, which in the long run allows them to make money from the game (the green 00)
but if i were to have a bankroll that was big enough that it would be statistically really improbable that you would ever run up to that much in one round, wouldn't I come out with a profit?
i mean i would keep going on and tripling my bet until i won, and thus would make a profit
I mean if a man came into a casino and placed an initial bet of 10c (i realize that casinos don't have limits this small, but for the sake of putting it in perspective) but came in with a bankroll of 1000 dollars, he would most probably never have to put up his bankroll as a bet in order to make up for previous losses (though it is statistically possible)
I'm not going to do the math that depicts how improbable it is to go up that high, but i know its highly unlikely
My point is if you have a big enough bankroll, shouldn't you have a VERY high chance of winning consistently with this betting system (bet $X, if you lose then bet 3 times the previous bet on same colour until you win then go back to initial bet)?
(not that i'm considering doing this again, but I was just thinking about the theory behind it)
Osmann you have a good point as to how the casino gets their edge, which in the long run allows them to make money from the game (the green 00)
but if i were to have a bankroll that was big enough that it would be statistically really improbable that you would ever run up to that much in one round, wouldn't I come out with a profit?
i mean i would keep going on and tripling my bet until i won, and thus would make a profit
I mean if a man came into a casino and placed an initial bet of 10c (i realize that casinos don't have limits this small, but for the sake of putting it in perspective) but came in with a bankroll of 1000 dollars, he would most probably never have to put up his bankroll as a bet in order to make up for previous losses (though it is statistically possible)
I'm not going to do the math that depicts how improbable it is to go up that high, but i know its highly unlikely
My point is if you have a big enough bankroll, shouldn't you have a VERY high chance of winning consistently with this betting system (bet $X, if you lose then bet 3 times the previous bet on same colour until you win then go back to initial bet)?
(not that i'm considering doing this again, but I was just thinking about the theory behind it)
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starfall
Visionary
Silver Level
It's almost certainly true that most roulette wheels will have a slight deviation. Even if they're made perfectly, then after a while the natural drying out, ageing and warping of the wood will give some degree of bias to the wheel. Someone made a study of a few wheels and made a lot of money from those ones, so it is possible to beat roulette.
Unsurprisingsly, the casinos didn't want the people associated with this guy let into their establishment after they realised that he was consistently winning, and it also meant quite a bit of groundwork to get the necessary stats to analyse and pick up the trends (stats on thousands of spins would be needed at a minimum to separate the bias from random chance).
Unsurprisingsly, the casinos didn't want the people associated with this guy let into their establishment after they realised that he was consistently winning, and it also meant quite a bit of groundwork to get the necessary stats to analyse and pick up the trends (stats on thousands of spins would be needed at a minimum to separate the bias from random chance).
Osmann
Rock Star
Silver Level
Chuck. I can understand why you are intrieged by beating the casino (in a way that is legal). I was that too a couple of years ago. But most of theese "theories" are actually made up by the casino, in order to make people play. It would be nice though if one could make money this easy.
No, think of it as a reversed lottery. You will make a profit most of the time but when you finally loose, you will loose big. The fact that you're winning most of the time makes it look like you're making an +ev play, but you're not! I know it is unlikely to hit that long loosing streak, but at some point it will happen. But also think about how long time it would take to make $1000 dollars with initial bets of 10c. The fact is, that in average you will loose the the one huge bet before you'll make the profit to cover the loss of the huge bet. So the size of your bankroll does not matter, because even though it will take a longer time to hit the loosing streak with a bigger bankroll, it will also take a longer time to make the profit to cover the loosing streak.
Another problem with this "theory" is if your initial bet is 10c, your average bet will be much higher. So you will loose your bankroll MUCH faster than if you stuck to the 10c. So to people who want to have fun playing roulette, I suggest sticking to a certain limit, or you will find yourself gambling with more money than you actually thought you were.
Think of the whole issue this way. Even though you lost 10 times in a row, your odds of winning the next time DOES NOT CHANGE. It's still just below 50%. Remember that when you're putting in that bet of $1000.
ChuckTs said:
No, think of it as a reversed lottery. You will make a profit most of the time but when you finally loose, you will loose big. The fact that you're winning most of the time makes it look like you're making an +ev play, but you're not! I know it is unlikely to hit that long loosing streak, but at some point it will happen. But also think about how long time it would take to make $1000 dollars with initial bets of 10c. The fact is, that in average you will loose the the one huge bet before you'll make the profit to cover the loss of the huge bet. So the size of your bankroll does not matter, because even though it will take a longer time to hit the loosing streak with a bigger bankroll, it will also take a longer time to make the profit to cover the loosing streak.
Another problem with this "theory" is if your initial bet is 10c, your average bet will be much higher. So you will loose your bankroll MUCH faster than if you stuck to the 10c. So to people who want to have fun playing roulette, I suggest sticking to a certain limit, or you will find yourself gambling with more money than you actually thought you were.
Think of the whole issue this way. Even though you lost 10 times in a row, your odds of winning the next time DOES NOT CHANGE. It's still just below 50%. Remember that when you're putting in that bet of $1000.