Running bad - Full Tilt SNG advice please!
Not meant to be a whinge thread, bear with me:
Played like a fish at Titan and Party last year, took a break, read some books and forums, practiced on my game, and came back playing a much stronger game on FT.
Started off great, played TAG and slowly but steadily at 10, 20 and 30 SNGs moved up to $700 profit in 4 week period.
Usual bad beats, occasional lucky hits, but generally TAG play with right loose calls at right times actually lead to steady success, about a 1 in 2.5 placement ratio which gave me a ROI of about 12% - woot!
Then last Sunday, all hell broke loose. Played 20 SNG's in 72 hour period, placed in 2 and lost 18. Of the 18 that I lost, 2 of them I lost with races, 2 of them I lost to a better hand - but FOURTEEN of them I had the chips in with the absolute best hand. Not just 5% or marginal favourite. Massive favourite - 70% or more to win. And in all cases lost.
I don't know what the stats are, but in fourteen times almost consecutively to lose with 70% favourite? We're talking flopping the nut Ace high flush and villain catching running cards to a full house on turn and river. Flopping a set of Kings, being re-raised all-in with AJ who catches running TQ for a straight. So not just TPTK getting run over.
In so far as the monsters go, with K's, I have won 2 out of 9, and Qs and Js are almost as bad. Looking at hand history, I think I've had A's 4 times in about the last 950 hands - not sure if that is above or below average - but have a 50% success rate on them holding up, so not too bad there.
We all run bad at times - but the guys on the SNG leaderboards - their sharkscope
graphs don't show them nosediving like this. Hence why I post this!
one of those that believe that online sites are 'rigged' - although there was some interesting discussion on the PE forums about how FT's RNG system is very different to Stars and Party. (EDIT
- I mention this because there is an argument that FT's system can create a short term anomaly/variance due to some kind of averaging and statistical adjustments that has been discussed on other forums).
Is this just one of those short term runs that happen to others out there? I'm actually now zero'd out in bankroll. I could have dropped down to micro SNG's and still had some bankroll left, and in hindsight I think this is definitely what I should have done - but I figured that because although frustrated, I wasn't on tilt, and was still getting the chips in with the better hands, my luck had to change after 9, 10, 11 times etc so I stayed at $10/$20 etc games.
Has this happened to you - and if so, how often? What is your strategy to survive and recover? Does it really make any difference to 'take a week off' and come back at it - the cards are random so why does a week make a difference?
Sorry if this sounds like a whine-a-thon, it's not meant to be a bitch session, I'm truly interested to hear others thoughts and experiences and how you made out.