Is massive online variance destroying my game?

#1 July 21st, 2017, 1:27 PM

I have concerns that being mainly a live player, and usually only in the WSOP and WPT when they come to Florida, 3 to 4 times a year, that the massive, I do mean massive, variance in the online poker clients will affect my play when I go to my preferred events. Rather than being good practice for live play and training me to properly play I feel it is changing the way I play and reversing all I have done to improve.

Does anybody have any thoughts on the subject or disagree?

Regards,
GiGiCat

#2 July 21st, 2017, 1:58 PM

For instance:

Yesterday I was on "Betonline" playing in two games, the $100 freeroll and a $1.10 tournament.

two screens each game on a different screen.

In the freeroll I get pocket J's, I raise accordingly from early position and get a caller. I flop trips on a dry board and check, guy raise pot, I call. turn is a blank I check guy goes all in, I call. Villain turns over pocket 2 and a 2 comes on river giving him quads. Hero bust out of game

20 seconds later and the very next hand in the $1.10 tournament. I get a crap hand and fold. Button Raises a typical preflop raise, BB calls. Flop comes out 2, 10, A. Button checks, BB bets, Button calls. turn comes a J. Button goes all in, BB calls. Button flips over Pocket J's and the BB flips over pocket 2's, the river comes a 2!

Almost the exact hands same out come less than 30 seconds apart!

How about those 4 card board flushes, or abnormal amount of times two people both have the same suit flush in hand?

Do ya all think this is variance or something hinky?

#3 July 21st, 2017, 2:20 PM

Originally Posted by GiGiCat

I have concerns that being mainly a live player, and usually only in the WSOP and WPT when they come to Florida, 3 to 4 times a year, that the massive, I do mean massive, variance in the online poker clients will affect my play when I go to my preferred events. Rather than being good practice for live play and training me to properly play I feel it is changing the way I play and reversing all I have done to improve.

Does anybody have any thoughts on the subject or disagree?

Regards,
GiGiCat

I dunno about the online stuff. Years and years ago I used to play 6 tables of PLO for about 5 hours (or more ) a day. 55 hands an hour x 6 tables is 330 hands per hour or 1650 a day. It 35000 hands a month. You will see everything that you can possibly see, playing so many hands. In a 5 hour live game, you'll be lucky to play 150 hands, so it is maybe 1/10th of the online amount.

For me the real difference between online and live is the slowness and boredom of the live game. Two equal ability players sitting down at the same time, will become slaves to the boredom and speed. He who handles this the best gains a massive advantage. All kinds of crap creeps into your game, while you are sitting there at tortoise speed. When you recognize this 'crap creep', take a break or stop completely.

#4 July 21st, 2017, 11:00 PM

dodgy dealing is much more present in live poker than online sites that use PERFECT RANDOMNESS algorithms. Stop complaining about the cards and start blaming yourself for your lack of bluffing. You can profit even during bad card sessions as eventually people begin to think you are hitting a good hand if you've folded quite a few; use this to your advantage.

You are the number one person to blame for your losses in poker, even if your internet is the reason why then pay for better Internet once you grind enough to do so. Never blame others for your failure at poker because it truly is a fair game.

#5 July 22nd, 2017, 12:06 AM

Originally Posted by Rational Madman

dodgy dealing is much more present in live poker than online sites that use PERFECT RANDOMNESS algorithms. Stop complaining about the cards and start blaming yourself for your lack of bluffing. You can profit even during bad card sessions as eventually people begin to think you are hitting a good hand if you've folded quite a few; use this to your advantage.

You are the number one person to blame for your losses in poker, even if your internet is the reason why then pay for better Internet once you grind enough to do so. Never blame others for your failure at poker because it truly is a fair game.

"Perfect Randomness" ...who would have thunk?!
Had to reread my post and I see no finger pointing just asking for observations of said "perfection"

Thank you for your Reply and hope to see you at a live table.

Regards,
GiGiCat

#6 July 22nd, 2017, 12:11 AM

It is difficult, because online poker is very different from real poker. You would have to alternate and look for opportunities to play live because otherwise you will be easy prey in the tournaments

#7 July 22nd, 2017, 12:33 AM

Originally Posted by ClickPoker

It is difficult, because online poker is very different from real poker. You would have to alternate and look for opportunities to play live because otherwise you will be easy prey in the tournaments

I do extremely well in live tournaments, and actually do pretty good in online freerolls but see more of a variance in the cards in online gaming compared to live. This caused me to wonder, that by playing online tournaments, will this affect my live play. I am positive it will but don't want it to as I presently have a 45% ITM rate live and an okay ROI, and it will be only a matter of time before I hit the final table and take a large cash prize home. I admit I need practice in pay jumps and going for the gusto, if you will.

I only play in 2 to 4 WSOP circuit or WPT events a year, as well as a local $5 tournament, which I play to strengthen my short stack game, but have noticed that my ITM placement at that tournament has decreased over the past couple months which coincides with playing online. I won't be playing in another circuit event till Sept. and will monitor my swing in the $5 tournaments to see if that is all it is, a down swing and not my play.

Thank you for your constructive critique.

Regards,
GiGiCat

#8 July 22nd, 2017, 12:52 PM

Wow, isn't a 45% ITM rate abnormally good? I only ask because I'm accustomed to the 10-15% expected of online MTT play.

If so, gratz!

#9 July 22nd, 2017, 4:46 PM

Originally Posted by darthdimsky

Wow, isn't a 45% ITM rate abnormally good? I only ask because I'm accustomed to the 10-15% expected of online MTT play.

If so, gratz!

Google "Raymond Claus Poker" and got to Hogdon Mob you can see my stats there.

Absolutely it is excellent, that's why I don't understand how my online is so bad, I havent' changed my play but the variance is crazy. I must admit my ROI is only about 8% but as I get deeper and learn how to play deeper I will bring that way up as well.

I played in 2 WSOP circuit events and 3 WPT events in 2015 and placed in 2 events, which is 40% placement.

I played in one event in 2016 and didn't place. (that's all the money I could save, otherwise would have played in more)

I have to date played in 2 WSOP tournaments this year and placed in 1.

I have played in 7 major events and placed in 3. So actually I have a 43.8% ITM rate. Guess rounding it to 45% made me feel better.

Regards,
GiGiCat

#10 July 25th, 2017, 7:52 PM

Perhaps you can develop one game strategy for online poker and one for live poker.

#11 July 25th, 2017, 9:35 PM

Originally Posted by sandund

Perhaps you can develop one game strategy for online poker and one for live poker.

That's what I am trying to do, but don't want to mess up a good thing with the live. Then keeping them straight in my head will be another story.

Regards,
GiGiCat

#12 July 25th, 2017, 11:47 PM

Bad things happen when we are at a poker table, one of them is the variance that smashes everyone, or almost everyone.
Who ever had that feeling that was winning all and from one hour to another everything is over,There is no AA-KK-QQ-AAA-KKK-QQQ
Nothing is safe and you are defeated by a simple 72 off,As much as you are correct, you end up losing, when this phase arrives I usually stop and relax, because staying would be a fatal disaster

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Is massive online variance destroying my game?

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