How many SNGs you need to play to know ROI?

J

jeffred1111

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I've heard figures ranging from 500 to 10k (on 2+2, where say you need at least 300k cash hands before having an approx figure of how you run, ie. winning/losing player). Right now, my sample is very small and my ROI, is, as expected, unsustainable (around 69% if my math is right).

If you need several thousand games, how can you know with certitude if you are good or not at a certain buy-in ? I can't see anyone not running hot/cool enough for a period of time and moving up/down before reaching 10k games.
 
JimboJim

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well...I'm confident of my stats after a hundred games. You should definantly have thousands before it's an accurate stat. Let me ask, how many games did you play for the 69% ROI? Thats a pretty decent number even with a small sample.
 
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jeffred1111

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Low 40's so it is pretty meaningless.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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It depends on what you mean by 'know'.

After 10k you are probably within +/- 1% of your 'true' ROI. After 2k it's probaly more like within +/- 10%, and significantly less than that is pretty meaningless.

There's a statistical way of illustrating exactly how far you would be from your 'true' ROI given a certain sample of games, but I'm far too lazy (and it's been far too long since I studied statistics) to run through it.
 
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jeffred1111

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Thanks, was asking just out of curiosity. All I know is that I usually do good in them, ROI figures don't really matter that much now since I only play a single 3.40 turbo at a time and I'm not in a dilemna to chose wich game is the most profitable for me (the 1$ are just way too long and the limit cash games take forever to build a BR at my stakes).
 
TakenCajun

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Poker and 4 seasons

I'm so new at poker... I think poker wins/loses are just like the 4 seasons... Summer...win win win..Fall win lose win lose Winter...LOSE LOSE LOSE and Spring Lose Win Lose...

I'm just realizing it day by day..that cards dont always fall my way... I was playing too conservately after the 1st tourney breaks... now, i've added aggression to my mix..and i am staying in Summer/Fall mode. If that makes any sense at all..

jeffred1111 said:
I've heard figures ranging from 500 to 10k (on 2+2, where say you need at least 300k cash hands before having an approx figure of how you run, ie. winning/losing player). Right now, my sample is very small and my ROI, is, as expected, unsustainable (around 69% if my math is right).

If you need several thousand games, how can you know with certitude if you are good or not at a certain buy-in ? I can't see anyone not running hot/cool enough for a period of time and moving up/down before reaching 10k games.
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