Help! Is this much variance conceivable?
I know there's variance in poker, but I've never seen a "bad luck streak" last for this long before.
Playing single-table (full table) SnGs in my online career, I've basically been a career 50% ITM player (counting after my preliminary month or so where I was learning and didn't really know quite what I was doing).
I played roughly 500 9 player SnGs, mostly $20, at Absolute Poker, consistently right at 50% ITM and consistently at about a 35% ROI.
Then I went to Party Poker
where the one-tables have 10 players... I played just over 200 games almost all at the $20 level and actually managed to improve to 52% ITM. I don't know exactly what my ROI was there; I'd estimate it was about 30%.
They shut down to Americans, so I moved to Full Tilt. Starting with my first 50 games, thing went as usual; I kept track and I was right around 50% ITM, even after a rough start, with around my usual 30% ROI. I momentarily moved to $50 SnGs once my b-roll got big enough, and I suddenly became unrealistically bombarded with bad beats. Believe me when I say the "skill" at these levels was not the problem; I was able to trap so many over-aggressive players and I got my money in in great shape time and time again. The difference was that I couldn't seem to win from ahead, win a coinflip, catch a hand at all. 15 games of this crap and I said to hell with it and went back to my normal levels ($20 and $30). But since then it's like a switch was hit when I moved up! I can honestly say that this is not due to tilt; I'm getting my money in way ahead the huge majority of times and playing my usual style. When I'm not getting it in ahead, I'm running into monsters with my big hands (just now, within 4 hands I ran into QQ with AKs, lost the flip, ran into AA with KK, lost that, and shortstacked now, ran into QQ with AJs and lost that).
Thus, in the past 100 games or so, my ITM% has been about 25%! My ROI has been around 3-5%, I'd venture; the overall ROI has dropped from 30% to about 13%!
I know 100 games is a small sample, but even over individual 100 game spans, I've never ONCE had an ITM% below ~45% or an ROI below 25%, let alone REMOTELY CLOSE to these numbers! I'm taking a statistics course in college right now, and I know that even small samples can be statistically significant if the deviations are drastic enough
This is, pardon my French, just absolutely too ****in' bizarre. I know there's variance in poker, I know! I've had cold streaks before! But when I compare these numbers to what has held true to me at every poker site
, consistently, through the balance of the ups and downs, it just doesn't make sense! Does it make sense to you?
Sorry for the very long post; feel free to ignore.