Originally Posted by joe777
Same even money bet result in a row probability.
How unlikely is it to see the same colour 2 or more times in a row? What's the probability of the results of 5 spins of the roulette wheel being red?
The following chart highlights the probabilities of the same colour appearing over a certain number of spins of the roulette wheel.
Example: The probability of the same colour showing up 4 times in a row is 5.6%.
I think perhaps that you have this idea in your head and are unable to take on board anything I have said
Last try then:-
Yep, probability of 20 spins in succession all being black is 1.8 million to 1 (if you observe just 20 spins
,e.g. The Next 20 Spins)
BUT, IF YOU OBSERVE 1000 SPINS AND SEE 20 IN SUCCESSION, THAT IS DIFFERENT. IT IS NOT THE SAME THING
^^^ These two lines are the important bit ^^^
This is the way of statistics. This is how it works. And this is one reason why people (and in this case, I mean you) so easily misinterpret them.
Furthermore, if Full Tilt spin the wheel (e.g.) 3.6 million times then by your own statistic it will be 2:1 odds on that there is a sequence of 21 blacks in succession in there somewhere.
It will happen 1 in 1.8million, therefore it will happen twice in 3.6 million
This is a statistical probability
only. It may in fact happen zero times, 1 time, 4 times, or 10 times but statistically it will happen twice.
The actual number will be closer to the statistical probability as the sample size increases e.g after 1 billion spins
I'm done with this now, I hope this has helped you.