This Freaked Me Out

Full Tilt, playing 2 .05/.10 tables. I commented to my wife (combusto broad) how often I get dealt the same pairs at both tables. She responds that it happens too often to be a coincidence. A few minutes later I get dealt AA at exactly the same time at both tables. OMG! I exclaimed while trying to figure out how to maximize both hands. Won 'em both. Couple o bucks each. Not bad. The very next hand, dealt again at exactly the same time, 8,2 off, both tables. Folded 'em both of course. As freaky as that was, I wasn't going to take it as a sign to play a crap hand.
No, I still don't think there's any monkey business going on. But Wow!

Rigged obviously. Are you wearing the hat shiny side out like I said to? If not, you might as well be using it for a spitoon.

I still think something is fishy but hey is what it is. My numbers through 200 NL ring hands are right on. The only one that is off is the bankroll . No way in hell I am leaving the table I am on till I simply can not stay awake been losing all night to horrible suckouts but way too much money flying around! At some point if this shit is truely legit my hands will start holding up. At least in theory anyway.

Went back to pokerstars for the first time in a year last night. Played 2 SNGs and the 1/2 ring games. Now I remember why I left in the first place - the suckouts were incredible. No matter what I played or how I played it I couldn't hardly win a hand. All-in with AA pre-flop, called and cracked by 9-6 offsuit. If I play this type of junk, I'm broke in 5 minutes, other folks can play this and catch all night. There are times when I wonder if they CAN see my cards and know whats coming. Like Xman, I continue to play but it sure gives you pause that there are sites that consistantly perform like this...

IrishDave said:

All-in with AA pre-flop, called and cracked by 9-6 offsuit. If I play this type of junk, I'm broke in 5 minutes, other folks can play this and catch all night.

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Thats just a bad beat Dave, I find Stars extremly profitable, there is very few ring game sessions when i lose money, but then again I play so tight its unreal. See lots of flops in NL ring, and if i dont hit i fold, but then again when you do hit, there is always a customer.

The sit and go's however are destroying me at the moment, last night was big stack on the bubble, got KK short stack double through me on J9. THE NEXT HAND, hes all-in again and i have AA, doubles through me again with 88. So now i'm the short stack, and go out on the bubble.

This is not A bad beat thread. It's a good beat thread. AA on two tables is a good thing. It was just...well...you know... kinda weird. Ooooh. (Ghost sounds)

Maybe online poker isn't rigged, it's just driven by a higher (or lower?) power. This would explain the folks that can win with anything - they're just blessed and the rest of us are just cursed. To be honest, I also have those unbeatable sessions at the tables myself; however, we tend to remember the bad sessions more...

That story from the OP really actually is kind of freaky if you figure the probability of hitting the same random hand on 2 seperate tables twice in a row. That's math I can't even do.

**edit**
Were they identically suited or not?

I actually thought the Maths was boringly simple.

Number of possible starting hands = 2,652 (52 x 51).

Number of possible variations of AA = 6

Number of ways those variations can be dealt = 12 (i.e As Ah can be dealt 2 ways).

2,652 divided by 12 = 221 = 220/1 chance of being dealt AA.

Chance of being dealt 2 lots of AA at same time is therefore 48,400/1 (220 x 220).

Possible combinations of being dealt 8 2 = 32 (4 x 4 x 2).

So 2652 divided by 32 = 82/1 chance of being dealt 8 2.

Chance of being dealt 2 lots of 8 2 at same time = 6,724/1

So chance of being dealt both identical pairs in consecutive hands is 6,724 x 48,400 = 325,441,660/1.

Always nice to be reminded why I chose Psychology as a major. lol

I was actually being sarcastc about the mathematical portion of my post robert. I edited my post to figure out if the hands were identically suited so that I could figure it out accurately. I'm sure they weren't, so your numbers should be flawed, no?

Well if you read my post you would see that I assumed the cards dealt weren't identical. I said there were 32 different ways of being dealt 8,2 (and 12 different ways of being dealt AA). There aren't 32 ways of being dealt 1 specific hand (i.e 8 of hearts and 2 of diamonds), there are 2 - 8h first 2d second and vice versa.

Wait - are you being sarcastc again?

The flaw in my calculations was that it worked out the odds of specifically being dealt AA twice and then being dealt 8,2 twice. A more accurate calculation should have been the odds of hitting ANY pair twice and then ANY hand twice next hand. I won't bother working out the odds for this as i'm sure you know them.

325,441,660/1 huh. Damn! Tenbobs still got me beat by a factor of 10 with his 6 consecutive boats.

Robert, no I didn't read your post.

That is all.

ummmm Don't the odds reset after the cards are shuffled?:bandit:

Uh, oh...

xdmanx007 said:

ummmm Don't the odds reset after the cards are shuffled?:bandit:

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???? I don't understand? My calculations did show the odds being reset after the cards are shuffled. Maybe the post is shown differently on your computer?

The odds of being dealt any pocket pair and the the exact same pair at the same time with 2 different packs is 3,536/1 (16/1 x 220/1). The odds of being dealt any non-pair, and then being dealt the same non-pair is 87/1 (16/15 x 82/1). So the odds of being dealt any pocket pair twice at the same time and immediately being dealt any non-pair twice at the same time which happened to 4dogs are 307,632/1 - still quite impressive!.

(If anyone thinks i'm wrong, post correct answer!).

307,632/1? That's it? Man, that's hardley even worth mentioning.

Four Dogs said:

307,632/1? That's it? Man, that's hardley even worth mentioning.

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Not really - play 2 games at the same time, 100 hands a day, 365 days a year, and it'll happen again in 8 years!

pocket fours

i was on a site earlier this week playing in two tournaments running at the same time and picked up pocket 44's five straight times. i had them on the first table back to back and busted out on the second hand with a set. then i picked up the same pair the next 3 times on the other table. i thought their program was messed up and that i was going to keep getting this same pair for the rest of the tourney. fortunately, that was not the case. i wish it could have been a bigger pair for 5 straight hands! just weird though.

diabloblanco said:

That story from the OP really actually is kind of freaky if you figure the probability of hitting the same random hand on 2 seperate tables twice in a row. That's math I can't even do.

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robwhufc said:

Chance of being dealt 2 lots of AA at same time is therefore 48,400/1 (220 x 220).

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The odds robwhufc calculated are frighteningly huge, but that is largely because the odds of catching specifically AA + AA + 82 + 82 are that huge. Diablo's question hinted at the much more general same hand, two tables, twice in a row - not specifically this sequence. The possibility of that is much larger.

Hands number 1 and 3 can be anything. It's 2 and 4 we need to have specifics on. 1326 unique starting hands (not counting order of cards - 52 choose 2), just means we get 1326^2 to 1. Or 1,758,276 to 1.

But that's if you need it to be exactly the same cards. If it just has to be two cards with the same value (but not suit), chances go up. Of course, that gets trickier to calculate depending on what the requirements are. Does the first hand need to be a pair?

The probability of getting the same hand (if we don't require the suits to be the same) twice in a row is 1.16%. The probability of THAT happening twice in a row is therefore 1.16% ^2 or .013%. Which is 7403 to 1, and therefore well within the boundaries of likelyhood.