This is a discussion on Bad Beat Jackpots within the online poker forums, in the Poker Rooms section; At the Ameristar Casino in Black Hawk the Holdem Jackpot is at $529,000 for aces full of jacks beat. Would you play extra hours to
At the Ameristar Casino in Black Hawk the Holdem Jackpot is at $529,000 for aces full of jacks beat. Would you play extra hours to try for a huge Bad Beat Jackpot? The people are going crazy playing as the waiting list is currently over 125 deep to get a seat. There are about 15 tables going.
8th October 2017, 9:44 PM
Online Poker at: None
In short, no I wouldn't to win the jackpot, but there may be other reasons to play
The odds of getting 4 of a kind in any 7 cards is 0.013% (7735 to 1). That isn't exactly right, because you normally need to start with a pair in your hand, but good enough for our purposes.
Now you have to get beat, but that is harder given that 2 of the board cards need to be jacks. I am not sure how to calculate it but lets say it is just as hard as getting the jacks. the are 3 quads that win so the odds are 0.013*0.013*3=0.000005%, call it 2,000,000 to one.
If your dealer is good you'll get ~30 hands per hour. Call it 250 in a session so the odds you'll be there when it hits are 80,000 to 1.
However, how good are the extra players the jackpot is bringing in? Likely not as good as you, so the reason to play more is not to win the jackpot, but to be there for the s=bad players.
10th October 2017, 5:51 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
I try to not to do anything just because of a promotion, especially when the odds are so high against it. Plus, those are just the theoretical odds over an infinite sample size. The reality is that for any one person playing 12 hours a day every day of their lives, they are still likely to die of old age without ever hitting the magic combination.
No, I would only play at that casino if I like to play and like that casino. If I happen to win the Bad Beat Jackpot, then I'll graciously accept the $529,000.