ACR/WPN MOSS #42 150k gtd
Is it just me, or do any of the rest of you feel like they're going to need their inside players to late reg to avoid this being +EV and covering the guarantee?
The ONLY way I think that DOESN'T happen is by filtering in TONS of players from sattys. But everyday people will be qualifying for free, so those entrants (depending on structure) could be equity-weighted as having some value, but will they be valued at full entry fee? I haven't evaluated that aspect enough to know.
What I DO know, is this past Sunday was the typical 115k gtd. We know only 6 of the entrants got in for free, so they're a non-factor. We know plenty of others got in for less than full entry, but I'm not evaluating those numbers to see if the site covered themselves on them. What we DO know is the 115k gtd went over to about 150k or so. Winner took down like 30k. Well done. It also only had the 3 hours of late reg that the 150k is slated to have, which surprises me because it seems like they live off of their ridiculous 5 hour late regs.
Here's the thing, though. The 115k, full entry was 220. The 150k is 88. Thank you in advance for not bothering me with greater entrants in lower entrys making gtd's more likely. I've taken enough classes, I'm aware. I just don't think it happens organically for them this time. They have to get "lucky" from all the feeders, because even 150k gtd for ONLY $88 is one of the best values they offer, few of their players are prepared to put even that much down on a single entry. (While others might go with 4 bullets if they have the finances)
So take away the feeders and take away the inside players (ACR Rep, you count as one since you work and play for them) I GUARANTEE it isn't covered. But they have enough backup plans where we very well could see like a 220k pot after 3 hours. lol
What are your thoughts?
And hurry up because we only have like a month to talk about it before it happens!