When to sit out a satellite?

Situation:

i'm 38/136 in a $25 rebuy satellite, to the $216 iPoker $200k GTD, where 100 people get a ticket and 101st gets $125.

Is it worth sitting out now?

Bubble and take the $125.

Lol probs a good idea i got in the 25r via a 5 freezeout

87/111 now

Sitting out protects yourself from, ah, yourownself.

Finished 106th, KK vs AA im such a retard why cudnt i fold

Dude that's sick what was the situation? It probably would have been correct to fold it but depends on stack size, position, etc.

Ave stack was 5BB, I was UTG with 4BB, Min raised (they were getting through from everyone, everyone instantly knew it was KK/AA) then MP1 used full timebank and shoved for like 4.1BB's, got back to me and then i used my timebank desperately convincing myself he had QQ/AK. I spent 3 hours in a $5 satty to the $25R, then 4 hours in this $25R to finish 5 places away from my biggest ever tourney...

Yeah dude I might just muck pre-flop there to tell you the truth. I've done it before in a sat.

considering I am a much low stakes player, this has maybe nothing to do with your situation, but once I was in a mini FTOPS satellite with 10 places paid, and I was 5/14 but commiting serious mistakes, so I decided to play REALLY tight.
after some hands, I am 9/11, and get dealt KK. my instinct was to shove, but I could stop it and just folded. that same hand in the other table, a guy got his QQ beaten by AJ. that decission probably made me win a kinda good ticket

Inconclusive information.
Depends on structure.

I've played in this one.
THe thing is, 'most likely' in the spot you were in here ^, chips gained aren't worth anywhere near the same value as 'chips lost' (due to it being a satellite). I'll often see newer satellite players making a common mistake - - still playing pots like there's some benefit to getting an even BIGGER stack (like they're getting paid more for 5th than they would be for 85th) while they're already sitting with a good one & it's likely unecessary.

I'm sure many others have made similiar mistakes in satellite play... I know I have.

sorry to hear that you didn't win the ticket (PS, last time I played it, I got it in w AQ vs AA... & didn't have a great stack.. but definitely not hurting either & was vs. a huge fish who was playing ~60% vpip)
You can actually sup. satty to that 50seat guar. starting off at 30cents. (I go the $3r/a route, 10seat guar.)

Also, if you've got the other tables open (if poss., I try to have them all open & don't usually play a bunch of MTTs at same time)... you can see if you figure you have to get it in... '&'.. I would NEVER minraise here with the KK & then be forced to a decision if &/or when someone else ships it in... just shove in the first place (if you have full intentions of calling a reshove). Put the decision on 'them'.. not them putting it on you.

Yeh I know what you mean but in this situation people seemed to have an understanding and a minraise was easily enough to take it down unless someone else had AA/KK. I know I should have folded. I was watching the other tables, seen 2 shorties quadruple up and was near the bottom of the pack and just went for it

I think I played pretty well too and my stats were like 5/5 over 280 hands or so

I read somewhere a while back that you should look at your position and work out how many people have less chips than you but are in the spots that award seats to the bigger tourney - then you should see how many people are still in the tourney but outside those spots. For example, let's say the satellite has 50 seats to the larger tourney and there are 70 people remaining and you're in 20th. 30 people have less chips than you but are also in the paid spots and another 20 are trying to get into those spots. In this situation you can afford to sit out. If you're in 30th in the same situation though, you shouldn't sit out. By and large I find this works out but it doesn't take into account some crazy double-ups that can take place with some of the short stacks. All you need is a few short stacks to get lucky (particularly if the blinds and antes are quite high) and you might wish you'd have stayed at the table and not buggered off!