What's His Range?

This is the 2nd level of deep stack tournament; the blinds are 100/200 with 40K stacks to start. A good and very aggressive player that I have played before gets moved to my table and hasn’t yet played a hand, he waits about 10 hands before playing.

I am in the BB and he raises from MP to a standard raise of 600. Everyone folds including the SB and it is just him and I heads up. I think about folding before I even look at my cards since I will be out of position the entire hand against a very aggressive player. However, I also don’t want him to get the idea that he can steal my blind whenever he wants and I am deep stacked enough to make this call with some hands that I would not normally play. I looked down and find AdJd and naturally like this hand better than what I was expecting to find. I could raise here, but again what does he have in his range? He is capable of playing ATC but I don’t think that’s the case here and even if AJ is ahead it is not by much. I hate this position and am feeling very awkward! Most of the problem has to do with what I believe to be his perception of my hand and my lack of position. If I call and like the flop, he is likely to fold since my hand will be so transparent, on the other hand I’m likely to lose a bet if I miss and have to fold. Anyway, I reluctantly make the call.

The flop, 9d 8s 4d. Against his MP range, I like this flop and am not willing to give up just yet. But how do I proceed?

1. Bet into him, betting about 50% of the pot, hoping for a free river if I miss
2. Check and call the nearly certain C-Bet

Option 1 does show some merit, but what if I get raised? He is very aggressive and certainly has premiums in his range. Since he is so aggressive, option 2 seems the better to me in order to let him bet for me; I check and he bets 700; I call.

Turn is the 10d. I bet 1500, he immediately calls. The river is a total brick, 3s, and I value bet for 2500 and he immediately calls – I show the winner and he mucks and I pull in a nice pot.

What I am attempting to learn from this hand, is what my opponent could be playing and why it played out like this. The thing that I find odd is that I do not believe it matters how I play this hand after I call pre-flop. Either option I choose after the flop results in what appears to be exactly the same pot as I three barrel and apparently get called – the only variance is the possible raise after I bet the flop.

The interesting thing is that this hand pretty much played itself – but how can that be? Two over cards, a flush and backdoor straight draw is not a hand that I would normally consider a hand that plays itself. Was he just calling to narrow my range, or did he have something, possibly 88, that he decided to pay the flush with; I wonder if the river pairs the board, let’s say the 4s, do I lose? Obviously I won the hand but am having some trouble even assigning this player a range.

Ok, Buadib1, your turn to tell me what an idiot I am and how much better you would have played this hand.

If his range really is any 2 cards and you think he'll call a 3bet, 3bet preflop. If his range is really tight and you don't think you'll get any action unless you're beat postflop, fold preflop.

As played (and I do think flatting from the blinds is a decent option here), I check / raise that flop all day. Donking (betting into him) is only an option if you think he'll auto-raise a donk bet (some will) and you want to shove over his raise. The only thing I wouldn't ever do is check/call.

BTW I don't play tournaments but you're deep enough here that I think playing it like a cash game is correct. No, I don't care about your tournament-life!

Pre flop is fine flatting. Decent enough to call with but you certainly don't want to end up with a big pot OOP when you're deep against a decent player. Is he loose or tight?

Aggresive opponent so quite likely to continuation bet. check/raise probably best here. I'm very rarely donking into him and certainly not on that flop. Leave him to cb. Check/calling should have turned your hand face up unless he thought your were floating (unlikely as your OOP) or getting ready to represent the flush.

I think he had something like 8/9, 7/6. I doubt a good player bets 700 on that flop with a set. Possibly had a set of 10's though and couldn't let it go. Doubtful of smaller flush as I think an aggresive player raises at least on the river.

Flat pre.

CR flop.

and BTW he cannot call to "narrow your range" your range is 100% of the hands you bet, when he calls your range is 100% of the hands you just bet

See, that’s just it – this player is capable of playing ATC, but I don’t think that’s the case here. He was different than normal at the table, ATC was definitely too wide for him here – he had something of a hand, not that ATC isn’t but you know what I mean. Usually he is pretty loose and aggressive, but he will fold; he is what I would call a good player and a tough opponent.

I actually picked up the bet flop play from Mike Caro. In fact if you’ve ever read any of his books you will find that he adamantly supports this play as “one of his favorites”, specifically with two over cards, or one over card and an inside straight draw. I never have really understood the psychology behind it, though I have had it work well on occasion. I tend to think it makes my hand too transparent, just as you said “turned your hand face up unless he thought your were floating”. But clearly this hand is the perfect example as I believe I could have made Mike’s play with at least at good chance of exactly the same result.

Also I like the CR, but run into the same problem as if I have bet out, he could 4-bet and then what? I believe his relatively early position changes things, and the fact that I believe him to be playing tight, even though I know he’s capable of going the other way.

By the way Stu, I didn’t mean he was going to narrow my range on that particular hand, but rather, since I have to flip them over, know that I will call OOP with vulnerable hands like AJ and use that for future reference. Not that there is much value to that since I think most players would call in that position with current stack and blind sizes; right?

-

Yeah it was a ridiculous when OP said it as it was when you quoted it.

Buadib1 did not do anything to OP other than explain to him why his thinking was incorrect in previous threads. OPs thinking is incorrect in this hand as well. Pointing out that someone played a hand incorrectly is NOT calling them an idiot. If they fail to at least consider the advice on the other hand, they may in fact be an idiot.

Still funny.


-

His calling range is going to depend heavily on his perception of you and how good he is.

If he thinks you're a fish, the worst he's calling with is probably QdQx and he'll also flat call his 2 pair/sets/straights.

If he thinks you're aggressive and bluffy his bluffcatching range probably widens quite a bit. He can be leveling himself with, "If he had a flush draw on the flop why didn't he raise?"

This is jibberish.

You start your post with saying he could have ATC, now he has the nuts, but its possible he has anything.

You CR because that board really dosent hit him. If he reraises just shove it in.

Against KK you are flipping.

Against TT you are a favorite

Against KQs you are a favorite.

Against 9x you are probably ahead.

Against a set you are about 2:1 dog

He could have AK or AQ which he should fold


In the early stages of a tournament you chips are worth nothing. You have a big draw and 2 overs, most likely he will fold to the CR, if he dosent... meh!

Since he's in MP, it seems doubtful that the opponent's range is any two. So what is it? Is this a player who'll bet in this position with mid pairs? small pairs? suited connectors? if so, how small? two faces? small aces?

Also, assuming he's good enough to be aware of how you play, should you take different lines some of the time so as not to narrow your own range too much?

I would say his range is

22+, ATo+, KQo, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, 89s, 9Ts

About 70% of that range misses that board
If he Gets it in with Overpairs, Sets, 2ppair and a couple of draws you are flipping.

If he gets it in with QQ+ Sets and 2pair (no draws and nothing you beat right now) you still have 40% equity and there is quite a bit of money in the pot after you CR so its a nobrainer get it in.

If he has hands like AQ,AK (which are in the 70% that miss) its good for you to fold them out.

So CR and get it in.

As its the early part of a tournament, your chips have almost no value so there is more incentive to accumulate chips than to preserve chips, unlike the later stages where preservation of your stack is more important than increasing your stack.

By saying he’s is playing tight from MP I in no way meant that he had the nuts. This player, after waiting to play for 10 hands, is simply going to be unable to resist open raising with 8c9c – or maybe even worse. That’s not to say that I can completely discount AA; that’s all I was saying.

I also understand the value of chips early versus late in tournaments. Maybe I’m tighter than I should be but, if I C/R here it would be to around 2K. Making the total pot at this stage 4K, if he 4-bets I may just fold. Even though I understand that accumulation is the goal right now, there is a line that must be drawn and walked carefully. Unless of course it is really early and I can simply go buy another stack. Against a hand that he is capable of 4-betting, like KK, I’m flipping as you pointed out; why flip at this stage when I still have 175 Big Blinds?

I like the C/R idea, but to a good player, that may just as easily define my hand as does check calling, although even that didn’t appear to give it away in this hand. Against an aggressive opponent I like mixing it up for exactly that reason and may even try some of Caro’s advice and bet out occasionally as well. My main dilemma here is what could he have possibly had that justified a PF raise, a C-bet, and two calls? I’m thinking an over pair that for whatever reason he just couldn’t let go of.

Because they have no value; i thought you understood

So, you’re the guy that is busted 5 minutes into level 2….I always wondered how that could possibly happen….LOL

Look, it really dosent matter at what point in a tournament you bust out.

If you bust out 1 place before payout you have done no better than the first man out. Thats why chip accumulation is the overriding concern in the early stages.

There is a reason cash players refer to tournaments as "donkaments" there is far less skill involved in winning them than you believe.

Right. That's called a range. So preflop his range might be something like 22+/78s+/JT+/QT+. We don't discount AA but we relize that it's a part, a small part in this case, of his range.

I totally agree, but there is a line unless you just don’t care about money.

What point is it for me to fly to Vegas, check into the hotel, spend $10K on the WSOP main event and be the first player knocked out because I had a big draw? I have a big enough stack to give myself a better chance than that!

If you're playing games you're properly bankrolled for, you're 100% wrong.

This isnt the WSOP, the blind structure of the blind structure in a multi-day event is different.

In the typical "1 evening events" a big draw and 2 over cards is as good as it gets.

There is a guy named Arnold Snyder who has written books on tournament play and he makes (I believe) a convincing argument that the Sklansky-esque valuation of chips is incorrect, and that the chips you can win have more value than the chips you have.

He emphasizes chip utility and the value of being able to make floats and bluffs that don't cripple your stack, he also believes that Harrington miscalculated M and overlooked many factors (such as how deep into your current level you are). He basically feels that you are almost always in much more desperate shape than most tournament observers/players believe.

Therefore, taking risks early to get a big stack early is probably the most +EV play you can make. In this spot, since our equity is so high, it can't really ever be a mistake.

When WVH suggested shoving over a flop 3-bet, I initially blanched at the idea of shoving 180ish BBs into a 40-50 BB pot but it's probably the best idea. IP we can flat and play aggressively on a lot of turn cards where we miss but OOP we are probably going to be best served by trying to stuff all the money in on the flop.

Certainly in live tournaments, people overvalue their tournament life, especially early, as they want to get some play for their money and not look foolish, i.e. "What point is it for me to fly to Vegas, check into the hotel, spend $10K on the WSOP main event and be the first player knocked out because I had a big draw?"

We should obviously try to utilize FE as much as possible to exploit this.

I really like Arnold Snyder's books.

A lot of the miscalculation of M is down to M not taking into account the length of time the current M lasts for. Whilst it seems silly to shove a draw 200bb deep against a range you flip with, M is likely only going to stay constant for 15 hands or so, so in a matter of minutes your stack to blind ratio drops dramatically if you dont accumulate chips.

C’mon Stu, you can’t advocate pushing 180BB at 40BB and then tell me structure matters. I’m not saying that I completely disagree with a shove, but you can’t have it both ways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib1 Certainly in live tournaments, people overvalue their tournament life, especially early, as they want to get some play for their money and not look foolish, i.e. "What point is it for me to fly to Vegas, check into the hotel, spend $10K on the WSOP main event and be the first player knocked out because I had a big draw?"

Like so many thing in this game, there is no right answer. In fact there the term “entertainment value” is well-known and was coined by a very good, very skilled professional poker player by the name of Scot Fishman; maybe you’ve heard of him? I can certainly see your side of this one and don’t discount it, in the interest of FE maybe he’ll just fold but there is equal value to the opposing very point as well.

I give in.

Im finding these days I just dont have the patience I used to.

Its been explained to you that a CR shove here is correct, of you disagree then fine.

In a game of skill there is always a right answer.

I played a lot of tournaments with Scott Fischman. Remember when The Crew was going to take over the poker world? I think he's fat and busto now.

As someone has already said, if you are bankrolled for z-tournament, then they will play each and every tournament in the same exact manner like the ME in las vegas.

Check out a top pro, who has made a fair bit of money in pokers. It's not that they don't "care" about the money, it's that they know what is a profitable shove/call of a shove in a tournament, even if it means there tournament life is on the line or not.

If they have more equity than the other player (or are very sure they do) they will call of their stack every time regardless of the buy-in if it's 1k or 100k buy-in and this isn't because they don't "care" about the money, it's simply because they know the best EV move.

They won't and shoulden't fold and wait for a better spot, IE: picking up Aces

because, they have already lost value in a previous hand which they should of played.

Bullshit...I'm a Network Engineer, a very skillful trade, and there are constant and often conflicting opinions - poker is no different and you f-ing idiot if you think otherwise.

Stu Ungar could beat you me and everyone else in this discussion board without knowing what FE, +EV, or an M value is? The skillful can take a given situation and extract the correct answer every time - you can't possibly tell me what that answer is in this discussion board - who do you think you are?

Why don't you just go and join 2p2 or something and spout your bullshit over on that forum. It's getting a bit boring when every thread you makes winds up with you just throwing insults about.

Your network engineer example didn't prove that there was no right answer sometimes. Physics has many differnet, conflicting views with regards to the theory of everything but at the end of the day one of those views is right and the rest are wrong. Just because there happens to be alot of conflicting views doesn't mean there isn't one that is 100% right.

Stu Ungar may not have known the terms FE, M or +ev was but he certainly understood them even if he didn't know the word.

If you don't want to accept the help and answers people are giving you on this forum then I don't really understand why you want to post.

First of, You're not a network Engineer. I'm unsure of why you have to lie.


Secondly, even if you was what on earth does a netwok engineer have to do in terms of skill and skill in a card game? This is a game of poker, not a trade..

Advice to you, is take the advice you're being given and accept it as correct or just continue to play your game and say how it's all bullshit, more money for everyone else then.

Clearly someone doesn't want the help, you should just continue donating to everyone else.

On another note, if someone can't tell you the answer in this discussion board, then why on earth are you posting?? How idiotic is that what you just said?

"I'm going to post something and ask a question(s) but don't won't actually accept any of the answers" < < That's very intelligent lol.

Did you think your play was good or something and wanted someone to acknowledge it as good play but actually have now been told it's the incorrect play and now your flaming?

At 2+2 he'll get have his threads locked and probably be banned after the second thread like this he makes.

Probably whats happened and thats why he has decided to post on this board instead.

The question that comes to my mind is whether the best strategy on a given hand is always best in the larger context of a player's tournament strategy. When and where does looking for better spots factor in? And how about the player's style; e.g. a smallballer vs a big pot lover?

..hmf..