Tournament half life

In my favourite MTT (Stars' $10 with ten minute blind increases) the number of players left halves every hour to a very reliable degree. In turbo MTTs the half life is 30 minutes. I find this helps give me a sense of where we are in the tournament - for example, if there are 1000 people left and the bubble is at 500 then I know we will be there in an hour, or six blind increases. By definition this means that the average stack will double in that hour. So, if I am sitting comfortably with an average stack then I know that in order to maintain my position I will have to double up in the next hour - which is about 100 hands.

Knowing the rate of decay of the tourney can also help with short stack decisions - if one is minded to just make the money, then knowing we will be there in, say, fifteen minutes will tell us whether we will have to shove with one of the next 25 hands just to survive, or whether we can scrape through without reraising all in with A8o.

Does anyone else use half life information in this way? And who has developed it to a more refined degree?

I've never used the idea, but for the tournaments I play in I have a pretty good idea of when the bubble is, and when the tournament ends... how fast is the turbo mtt ur talking about? Blinds go up every 5 minutes?

Interesting view of it. Long known that 50%/hr was the very good approximation of the 'rate of decay' (love that terminology here) your take on it is fresh.

Most of the rest of the world uses 'M' to judge late tourney decisions. I think the rate of decay can accomplish much the same thing with no mental math involved. However, getting lazy doing the maths is generally gonna be a -EV action.

IMHO

It's interesting to note that 'yes' the field is often cut in half in the first hour BUT this is usually regarding MTTs with 10min. blind levels and usually in lower buyins.. (check the higher buyins, not nearly as many are dropping out so quickly).

Your observation as I said is 'interesting' but to be honest imo it doesn't >>ave much relevance as to how I'm playing my hands... >> I could care less what the avg. stack is, it is not affecting my play... nor does it matter how many players are left. What is relevant is... the ratio of the blinds in comparison to my stack.. and the sizes of the other stacks on 'my' table. This is how I'm basing my play, knowing whether or not I need to get it in... or need to try to resteal, steal,etc.

I pay more attention to how many BB's I have than the time remaining.

I'll admit that I have the tendency for when I get into shove mode that I'm more happy to cash than play to win with an unnecessary shove.

doesn't it speed up as the blinds increase?

I agree that your stack size is more relevant to blind sizes and stack sizes on your table but the half life equation can give you a good idea of the types of stack sizes you will come up against as you are moved from table to table although most of this info you can access in torney lobby etc. I find these sort of mental exercises keep you tuned in

That is an interesting concept. The only stats I keep track of on the tournament page are players left, where the bubble is, average stack, and where my stack is. When I'm doing well ussually I'm top ten, and I tighten my game up, letting other players knock eachother out.

I used to play a lot of micro MTTs on PS back before I enlisted (the dime sit n gos IIRC), and I won quite a few of them by just playing tight. Then I'd use my image (and stack) to bluff a few pots, then go back to waiting for the nuts. Sometimes I'd sit out and go watch Family Guy with roommate.

I miss those days. Now I'm in Iraq.

I agree that 'keeping tuned in' to the game is important and having a load of stats available and thinking about how they affect both my game and that of my opponents keeps me focussed.

try not to focus too much on the information given (eg. average stack,biggest stack and when's the money and such) i mean it's important for bubble but over looked it would make you play worse than you suppose to be...

i normally play fairly tight and see how to go for and attack someone weaker than me...

This is very interesting I have never thought about any tournament like this but that seems to be a good ovservation to have. I will definetly try holding this into account next MTT I play

I used to pay attention to the speed at which the field dwindled and your right its about 50% an hour at the level I play. I find sometimes however that I focused too much on making the bubble and not enough on going deep when I paid too close attention to it so now I just try to keep track of how many BB's I have/need.

I'm also reading a book by Arnold Snyder called The Poker Tournament Formula which includes chapters on what he calls the patience or skill factor when looking at tournaments. I think some of his views are arguable but it's all along the same lines of getting a handle on where you stand overall during play which is fundamentally important.