This is a discussion on Tournament EV (NOT hand $EV) within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Hello everyone and thanks for having me I'm in the very early stages of my poker undertaking, and I seek some discussion on the issue ... 


#1  
 
Tournament EV (NOT hand $EV) Hello everyone and thanks for having me I'm in the very early stages of my poker undertaking, and I seek some discussion on the issue of what I will call 'tournament EV'. The reason I feel I have to give it a name is that I can't really find the idea discussed much online, which I is why I wanted to post here and see if it is actually a useful tool at all in choosing tournaments based on an overall EV figure. What I'm NOT talking about is the widely discussed issue of $EV in STTs. I was inspired by this thread: Freeroll Tournaments Value  Which are the best Freerolls? So I started calculating the EV of some STTs under the assumption that the EV of a tournament would give at least a rough guide to the value of the STT, though obviously not allowing for lots and lots of factors. My calculations say that the EV of a tournament follows this formula: (Prizepool  (unpaid places * buyin)) / players Sound good? Here's some examples: PartyPoker SnG EV: 10 player $1 Turbo: (8  7) / 10 = 0.1 $3 Speed: (24  (7*3)) / 10 = 0.3 $3 Turbo: (24  (7*3)) / 10 = 0.3 6 player $1 Turbo: (4.80  4) / 6 = 0.1333 $3 Stand: (14.40  (4*3)) / 6 = 0.4 $3 Turbo: (14.40  (4*3)) / 6 = 0.4 PokerStars SnG EV: 10 player Fifty50 buy in $1.50/3.50 $1.50 Reg: (13.50  (5*1.5)) / 10 = 0.6 $1.50 Tur: (13.90  (5*1.5)) / 10 = 0.64 $3.50 Reg: (32.60  (5*3.5)) / 10 = 1.51 $3.50 Tur: (33.00  (5*3.5)) / 10 = 1.55 9 player buy in $1.50/3.50 $1.50 Reg: (11.61  (6*1.5)) / 9 = 0.29 $1.50 Tur: (11.88  (6*1.5)) / 9 = 0.32 $3.50 Reg: (27.99  (6*3.5)) / 9 = 0.7766 $3.50 Tur: (28.44  (6*3.5)) / 9 = 0.8266 6 player buy in $1.50/3.50 $1.50 Reg: (7.74  (4*1.5)) / 6 = 0.29 $1.50 Tur: (7.92  (4*1.5)) / 6 = 0.32 $3.50 Reg: (18.78  (4*3.5)) / 6 = 0.63 $3.50 Tur: (19.14  (4*3.5)) / 6 = 0.8566 So by these numbers, it looks as if the $3.50 Turbo Fifty50 is the best value, and way better value than most of the other micro STTs I looked at, with an EV of 1.55. So if one were, as I am, a beginner looking around at different game types before deciding which to specialise in, it would seem that the Fifty50s would be a good STT to focus on. Interestingly, the 6 player STTs on PartyPoker seem better value than the 10 player games. So what do you guys think? How useful/reliable are these figures? Am I way out or on to something? Obviously they will always need to be viewed alongside many other factors, so which presentlyignored factors are the most important here? The first one that jumps to my mind is that although the EV goes up as the buy in goes up, perhaps the easy level of play at the lower buy in would make up for this? I need some guidance. Look forward to discussing this (I'll buy the virtual beers) 
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http://www.cardschat.com/poker/lessons/bankroll 
#3  
 
I agree that turbo sit n go's are a good place to start for a beginner. What you should focus more on is SnG strategy, such as becoming comfortable with how many big blinds you have, when you should be shipping in preflop etc. I started my poker career playing SnG's. I would say I like your little EV calc. Think about how much $$ you want to devote to poker. Let's say you want to devote $500. You should be playing $5 and $6 Sng's, because you need to practice good BR management. Read up on how to practice good bankroll mgmt like shinedown said. Then read up on good SnG strategy. Again, you need to be comfortable with shipping in 10 or 12 Big blinds with a wide range of hands that play well post flop. The key to winning in SNG's is knowing when to be aggressive and knowing when to be patient. Typically in a SnG, you will need to be patient early on, and very aggressive late in the SnG. As far as trying to determine which SnG's you should play, again worry more about what your poker bankroll looks like and then what level you should be playing based on your bankroll size. Hope this helps. 
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#5  
 
re: Poker & Tournament EV (NOT hand $EV) Hi. It took me a little time to get my head round your question and as you say you weren't really sure what to call it yourself, The first thing is, this is not EV The EV of a tournament (or any game, like a coin toss) can be measured just like the EV of a hand, by the probability of a win when compared to loss or reward In the case of a 9 handed tournament for example you would assume that you are all equally competent and that over time you would all take exactly the same number of 1st, 2nd and 3rds. In a perfect scenario (ie what the probability is) you would all contribute 9 buyins in 9 games and you would all take each place 123456789 in 9 games and win your money back. The EV of these games is 0. (Discounting the fees, which of course makes them EV, something that all profitable players have to overcome) If each game had an overlay of added money, this would increase the EV because you could expect to win a percentage of that overlay in each game (on average) I believe that what your formula is showing if anything, is that you are more likely to be ITM if you play a fifty50 than if you play a reg SnG. Well, yes you are because it pays 5/10 not 3/9 (but of course you only win 2xBuyins. DoN vs Sng is another question) You will see that a 9 player $1.50 gets the same rating as a 6 player $1.50 because they both pay 33% ITM The higher figures for the $3.50's are simply where your inclusion of the buyin cost has skewed the figures, when in fact the cost of the buyin doesn't affect the profitability of the games The best advice I can give is to seek out games with money added, (an overlay) these are +EV and definitely learn and practice Good Bankroll Management 
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Welcome to CC spaceboy. Google Independent Chip Model (commonly aka ICM) . Complicated, with people continually trying to simplify things. Very related to what you seem to be seeking. However, your formula and examples seems to sort of stand on their own as something useful. 
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#10  
 
re: Poker & Tournament EV (NOT hand $EV) I understand what you are trying to get at, but your formula just isn't getting you there. The value of playing a tournament is based somewhat on the payouts, a lot on structure as well as the rake, but mostly based on your skill/ability compared to the other players. There's no simple formula for that. What your formula essentially does is computes the average payout you would get if you played the tournament over and over against players of the same skill. So really all this is showing you is how much you'll lose due to the rake. Might also be of some benefit for understanding the variance of each tournament type, but still, not really. 
#12  
 
Looks like your just calculating whats best in terms of rake. Rake is an important consideration. But also, some games just run tougher than others for differing reasons. Your own percieved skill level over the player base is another important factor. You can't really work it out, just have to guess and be realistic about what numbers you can achieve. The only real way to get a semi accurate estimate of how well you will do is by playing and getting experiance, everything else will fall into place if you put the time in. Other considerations might be that the pokerstars software is about 50x better than partypoker. So on pokerstars you are able to play many more tables at lower stakes which will reduce variance and get you multitabling skills. There are other considerations as well, but calculating the rake is only one aspect of it in terms of EV. 
#14  
 
Your formula doesn't make sense/is basically irrelevant because you can't calculate your EV by your chance to cash, but by your Return on Investment (ROI) in each tournament. This can be illustrated by a simple example  if a tournament was $100 buyin, and you paid everyone who entered 1 cent and no more, then it would have the highest possible EV under your formula. 
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