SNGWiz is weird...

Okay, so this is a good example of why SNGWiz can be misleading sometimes. Can someone (other than WiZZiM ) explain when this becomes a lot closer than SNGWiz suggests? For reads, both the BTN and SB are weak tight players, 32/8ish, not very aggressive on the bubble up to this point, and BB has let himself get blinded down to less than this before (I might have been the one to double him up actually ).

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|300/600 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 2,775.00
BB: 1,935.00
Hero (UTG): 3,940.00
BTN: 4,850.00

SB posts SB 300.00, BB posts BB 600.00

Pre Flop: (900.00) Hero has Q♥ K♣

Hero raises to 3,940.00 and is all-in, ...

I know where i'm not wanted... :P

How strange, I was literaly just asking myself the same question.
When I put this thread (http://www.cardschat.com/f51/6-50-nlhe-stt-bubble-button-193935/) into SNGWiz it outputted JJ+ or AKs+ which seems mighty tight for a standard re-steal spot. I'd be looking to shove much wider than this, but SNGWiz says that -EV.

Anyone care to explain?

I don't have teh SNGwiz...but for starters the range for your villains seems WAY off. I mean as shown in SNGwiz they don't seem to match the weak/tight & fold-happy natures you'd described.

Also...SNGwiz/ICM don't care about next hand, blind vs. average stack-size, FE post-blinds, etc.

Hahah, sorry buddy, I just know you know the answer

Yeah, in that hand the issue is two things - the first is that your opponent is never going to fold enough to make it profitable; the second is that our chip position and the arrangement of the stacks are such that we can't be really aggressive.

This is very true. The short stack is just an awful player, and isn't going to get it in 52% of the time from what I observed. And the other two stacks - they've been pretty tight on the bubble, so I don't think their ranges are very accurate, especially considering that the guy in the BB is about to go out.

So I'm going to put the BB at 35% now, which is any pair, and ace, and suited king, K5o+, all broadways but JTo, plus Q9s, Q8s, and J9s. The two other guys are now at 15%, which is 33+, A4s+, A8o+, and KTs+ (that might be a little wide still but whatever), and here's what we get.



So that's still not very close. So what the eff gives?

Perhaps a hint would be helpful - given our reads, what action will likely take place if we fold?

Against decent opponents the button probably uses their big stack to steal the blinds.

Against the droolers you've described above though the big blind probably gets a walk.

Ding ding ding!

So below the main graphic in SNGWiz, there are a couple other options that usually get ignored.



So where it says "Hero Fold", what that is doing is it's considering what happens if we fold and we let our opponents act. And here, it's suggesting that "TheSkeetz" pushes 44%, and "is it to much" pushes 69%, with "brian6989" calling each shove 52%. From what we know of our opponents this is just not going to happen. So let's fix some things...



So it's still a fold, and maybe that makes this a poor example, but still, the EV of this move is more than 1% better than with the first numbers. That's a huge difference, simply based on how your opponents play once you fold. In the first example, there was a very good chance that if you folded, you'd be in the money, but here there's no guarantee of that. But if the BB could get a walk, then there's less of a chance that you can make the money by passing up the spot, making your risk less bad (although still pretty bad).

It's just something that needs to be considered when you're at the table, and just because you would make one play in a situation, doesn't mean your opponent would make the same move.

Another example, perhaps this will be more clear. This one was taken from a $3.40 on Stars and I was tilted as shit after it happened.



So here the BTN is pretty short, and if we fold the BB should call pretty often. But here the BB is an absolute moron, and folded to the BTN's push (who probably isn't pushing ~70%, because he is also a moron), so he basically doubled up without a showdown. So if we know the BB isn't calling wide, that means we really need to call.



So that one little difference in the hand drastically changes our course of action, and is something to be kept in mind at the tables.

Oh, btw I need to give credit to Muscleman76 for pointing out how the first picture with KQo could be a lot closer than Wiz suggested, he would be pissed at me if I didn't share that with you all

This has almost nothing to do with the stats of the players around you and everything to do with your stack size in relation to the guy in 4th. Being 2-3 times his stack and knowing he's going to need to be all in before you are...we're basically looking for great hands to even consider playing. Either that or we have so many chips that we can do whatever we want.

IMO purely a stack based play, stats of opponents...meh

True, however i think the idea of this thread was to get people who are using SNG wizard to actually use it properly.

I find it's one of those programs that can be extremely beneficial, but at the same time extrememly detrimental to the poker community. A lot of people do not understand it's only worth the information you put into it, and then it still has flaws. Knowing those flaws and understanding how to account for them and how to account for things that it can't is really, REALLY important.

But yeah, as i've mentioned in threads countless times, it's all about equity, how our stack relates to those around us. We are now in second place, and we are the most risk averse player at the table by far.

Just adding to bwammos analysis as well, we always have to shove through the CL, which again tightens our ranges considerably. Also the fact that if we fold here, it's likely the other three players will get it in vs each other, we can basically let them do the work for us.

I like to use SNG Wiz mainly for BVB play where it is near perfect. Or going over call down situations.

No I definitely agree, I made a mistake by shoving - it didn't matter what stats I put in, SNGWiz showed that pushing was pretty bad. I just found it interesting that changing your reads can drastically change what the right plays in certain situations. This wasn't one of those times though

But maybe you'd agree with the second example I posted, in post #8? I took that one from my coaching session with you actually, hah.

LOL. This happened to my benefit 2 nights ago in a live tourney. I had just been crippled to 0.6 BB on the bubble after I shoved 99 fr SB and BB called w 46s and won.

I doubled up once, and when I posted the BB of 1000 a few hands later I had 1x100 chip left. It was in my hand to call when the SB shoved... AND HE GAVE ME A WALK!!

The table was gobsmacked. I tripled up again the next hand and I ended up finishing 4th and taking a nice prize.

[/random story]

Oh, awesome, high content thread btw (despite my posts).

I make a point of never arguing with Bwammo when he's right.

One of the little tricks I use when looking at UTG in high blind situations is to remove a BB from my stack and see what it spits out.

We have to post it so it's really already gone from our stack (in effect).