should variance affect confidence

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frankrizzojr

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i have been playing poker on line for about 2 yrs now. I am an ok player. making small profits playing sit and go's. I am recently coming off of a 15 game downswing , small stakes . I have noticed anytime I go through some variance my confidence takes a huge hit. is that normal ? it doesn't make me change the way I play . but every time it happens I start thinking the games are becoming tougher or that sit and gos are not as profitable as they were a couple years ago . I was just wondering what thoughts others may have when experiencing downswings? I know one thing for sure when I do hit a big downswing it makes me study away from the table , so I guess that is one good thing to come from it.
 
rifflemao

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I know one thing for sure when I do hit a big downswing it makes me study away from the table , so I guess that is one good thing to come from it.

I was going to suggest studying hand histories to find out if it's variance, tilt, leaks etc, but sounds like you're already there. Downswings affect my confidence too, but shouldn't really. Jared Tendler has a couple of books that can help the downswing doldrums. I've just started his first, and I'm liking it so far.

My main thought during a downswing is I can't seem to do anything right. I played a couple of SnGs on Bovada last night. In the first, I get it in on the flop with 888 and lose to T3 when the villain turns his two pair into a better full house. Probably should have raised my midpair from early pos.

In the next one, I get it in preflop with QQ against 22 and he turns trips. Sometimes you just get clobbered and have have no option but to endure it for a while, or take a break. :dontknow:
 
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I have noticed anytime I go through some variance my confidence takes a huge hit. is that normal ? it doesn't make me change the way I play . but every time it happens I start thinking the games are becoming tougher or that sit and gos are not as profitable as they were a couple years ago . I was just wondering what thoughts others may have when experiencing downswings? I know one thing for sure when I do hit a big downswing it makes me study away from the table , so I guess that is one good thing to come from it.
Nothing 'should' affect your confidence if you are making sound judgements. If you are experiencing bad luck that's fair enough, if it goes on indefinitely then it's not luck it's poor play.

Reliable confidence stems from knowing how you know what you know - recognising the difference between hallucinated potential realities (unreliable confidence) and sensory based observations that you can confidently extrapolate conclusions from. Basically if you have the skill to notice relevant goings on and interpret / operate on them. It's no point being confident if you haven't.

But I imagine the vast majority of us are works in poker progress - we're in the transitional period of consciously incompetent / consciously competent phase of learning. It's not a predictable (and therefore for some comfortable) place to be - constantly being reminded of how much we don't know, climbing one hill only to realise there's another behind it... LOL No one can stop you enjoying the view though.
 
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I am really on break now, because of bad beats and other reasons.
I have played 5 hours a day online poker and it becomes routine and I lost the last time almost every tournement, so I decided to go on break for a week. I hope I am not loosing the temperament on online poker just because I loose the tournements and while I'm on break. Hope a comeback with satisfying good matches.
 
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frankrizzojr

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makes sense nuder, nicely put!!
 
BluffMeAllIn

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I am really on break now, because of bad beats and other reasons.
I have played 5 hours a day online poker and it becomes routine and I lost the last time almost every tournement, so I decided to go on break for a week. I hope I am not loosing the temperament on online poker just because I loose the tournements and while I'm on break. Hope a comeback with satisfying good matches.
A post from out of nowhere? No offence Locha, but what does this have to do with the OP's post/thread. I get that you are indicating you are also on a bad run/play and losing motivation to play but at least make some reference to the OP if you would like to say your going through something similar (granted you provide no details to indicate if any relation, are you playing MTT's or SNG's if mtt's easily expect to lose lots of them while the thread was related to a downswing in SNG's).

Ok, so to the OP yeah downswings are always horrible and can make you second guess your confidence in regards to are you playing well or not playing well? This is a good time to step back and determine which is the case, if you are not playing well then the question we have to ask ourselves is WHY? (A key question always posed by Jared when he was on the forum for a while answering questions). We don't often think logically when having frustrations of multiple bad beats and taking a brief moment to determine in such a situation that logically we know varience is part of the game so why does it upset us when it swings the wrong way.

I too have just recently ordered and recieved both his books and in progress of reading the first one, it is very interesting so far in the small bit I have read and think it is going to provide some great results in control/improving my mental game of poker.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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"should" variance affect confidence? well, all I know is that it DOES, definitely.
and confidence at the poker table is a strong ally so it can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy....

I like to review my hand histories and look for WHEN the money went in the pot. was I ahead when the bulk of the money went in? then ok, nothing to be too upset about. If not, then why did I put my money in behind? Did I bluff off half my stack vs. the wrong type of player? Did I overvalue top pair? where did I make a mistake?
 
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A post from out of nowhere? No offence Locha, but what does this have to do with the OP's post/thread.
I think he's empathising with the OP - the confidence dip being a shared experience. Empathy is good, it's one of the things that helps you read people and it's pretty much relevant to all human interaction. Although usually another ingredient helps too if there's a problem to solve.
 
steveiam

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For me if i know that i am making the right decisions but the cards are not going my way then i don't worry about it i just keep playing. I try not to get result orientated because then that will effect you play and will compound the variance.
 
etherghost

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Whenever I'm on a downswing I move my game to lower stakes for the duration of the downswing. Once things pick up again I move to my normal game. I've learned over the years that downswing isn't about amount of money but rather timing.

Good luck bud!
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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15 game downswings are nothing, wait until you hit a 50 game downswing (this will invariably happen at some point if you play enough games, regardless of how good you are).

As long as you note and review any questionable hands and are happy with your play when looking back on it with a cold analytical eye as opposed to a rushed, stressed, in-the-middle-of-playing-SNGs-while-getting-frustrated-eye, then you shouldn't be too worried. If stress does become an issue, go outside for a walk, go out with some friends, read a book, whatever. As long as you're not playing professionally, remember that poker should be a hobby and not a chore.
 
TeUnit

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just keep workin on your game during the tough periods
 
hobonc

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Of course a downswing has an effect on your confidence. It is even so for some pros. This will rectify itself once you start winning again. Like others have said: be sure to analyze your play to see if any serious mistakes contribute to the swing. I would also recommend doing this during upswings to see what you were doing then.
 
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