Profitable fold? Not really sure about this play

Situation that happened a minute ago that I'm not really sure about. Is this + tourney ev to fold in this situation? I didn't really fancy a coin flip and someone could've quite easily had a better hand and taken out my decent sized stack. As it turned out I would've had the best hand but thats not really relevant. Never played other players before so no read on anyone.

PokerStars - $0.91+$0.09|400/800 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP+1: 11,636.00
Hero (CO): 10,303.00
BTN: 16,410.00
SB: 3,566.00
BB: 3,240.00
UTG: 6,994.00
UTG+1: 12,468.00
MP: 25,383.00

MP+1 posts ante 80.00, Hero posts ante 80.00, BTN posts ante 80.00, SB posts ante 80.00, BB posts ante 80.00, UTG posts ante 80.00, UTG+1 posts ante 80.00, MP posts ante 80.00, SB posts SB 400.00, BB posts BB 800.00

Pre Flop: (1840.00) Hero has Q♣ A♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to 1,600.00, MP calls 1,600.00, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2,400.00, fold, UTG+1 calls 800.00, MP calls 800.00

yea i guess i would have folded there, it would have been difficult to just call there, but i could understand it. a rise or fold as well has specific arguments on why it would be a good play. in the long run, a raise or fold is prolly the best thing to do.
Hope that helps!
TTYL

I think that after the opening bet and the call have added chips to the pot, it's a shove or fold situation. I would lean toward folding, but sticking it in while you have a decent amount of fold equity doesn't seem unreasonable either.

Sb, is short, I'm flatting this and seeing the flop. SB only has 700 (ish) left for any bet and I'm seeing that as well, unless MP shoves, unlikely I think.

You are right about the reads, would have been very helpful here, but even without reads you do have position, pretty damn good cards, and what looks to be a limited risk. Shorty SB may be shorty cuz he has been reckless and sees the writing on the wall (I call that pokercide), I give that a significant % in my decision. Maybe 30%...yup, I'm flatting here. And I know that it makes no matter and SB will shove whatever the flop is. SO when MP flats that shove, I follow, expecting a check down to follow, unless I hit.

Pretty sure he folded before SB 3-bet

So did you just get moved to this table? (no reads??).
Early position player w 15bb's raising should be a strong hand.... guy 'flatting' that raise also with a shorter stack of ~15bb's (< what hand would do that?... AA hoping to induce a 3bet from LP player?.... in a $1 game.. 'doubt it'... more likely some player who has no clue how to play on shorterstacks). Reads are pretty crucial here imo (w/o reads I'm assuming they're all pretty bad players).
also, what is up with the bet-sizing by SB? Even if he had AA... wtf is he doing? Does he really think the raiser is folding if he just shoves? Ridiculous bet imo.

Good spot to just get your chips in imo. (unless you think the guy flatting the raiser is actually 'thinking' & doing this with AA in hopes of inducing a LP shove).

fwiw, 13bb's isn't really a 'decent-sized stack'

shove pre without reads

you're ahead of his range

never ever flatting off 13bb without aces

I put pocket pairs in his range which I'm flipping to and could be in bit trouble against some hands. I just thought this was + tourney ev because there were much better spots to get my money in. People still to act behind and a few that had already shown interest in the hand.

Flipping would be a 'good' thing in this spot!!!

SB donk min raises makes no sense, lol. Anyway, I think I'd be coming over the top here and just shoving, I think most times you have folds and the SB is just calling + you will most likely be way ahead.

He can't "come over the top" after SB's minraise (he's already folded before SB acts).
'most' times you have folds from "15bb' stacks who are raising from early position? Really? I'd think that would be extremely rare??? (& obviously REALLY TERRIBLE... so w/o reads I can't see how we could assume that utg1 villain is super super bad)

I actually thought he had the 6k stack and not the 12k stack, (UTG)(UTG+1)

Yeah without reads, can't assume he is bad, like I say though - I misread both UTG/UTG+1 stack sizes, thought he had the 6k ;[

I'm shoving this all day, way too much dead money, we don't really care about the 3bettor as he is obviously clicking buttons without thinking, and we still have fold equity over the original utg raiser.

Oh, and it's never really "profitable" or "+EV" to fold. Your folding, so your expected value is losing the blinds and cannot be anything more. But sometimes folding is better than any of the other alternatives.

all villains in this hand are retarded.

In worst-case scenario, we have the bigstack's range crushed so we can win a large sidepot.

Read the hand before my 3rd cup of java this morning. so ignore me......

no brainer shove. it's an insanely good investment. you don't win tourneys without taking some risks to accumulate chips, and i hesitate to even call this a "risk" because it's so standard -- you'd have to have a read that the guys before you have super tight ranges (unlikely... there was a minraise and a call, that's all the info we have) to consider anything but shoving 13 BBs w/ AQ here with a bunch of chips already in the pot

I almost hate to say this, but if UTG had a few more chips we should probably fold. I would shove here, too, but it's not a fist-pump situation.

When shortstacks raise when they should be shoving anything they want to play, they will have KK+ a disproportionate amount of the time.

Still, he's probably a tard.

fwiw it was UTG+1 with the 12.5k stack who opened, not UTG. IME plenty of players will minraise on that stack with hands they want to be able to get away from. i wouldn't be fistpumping, i simply think it's a no brainer because shoving is way better than the other 2 options

In cash games its never +ev to fold as you lose money but in terms of tourney ev e.g. my expected share of the remaining prizes I thought I had a big enough stack to find a better situation to shove it.and my ev to increase as others knock themselves out whilst players eliminate each other and I find that one perfect hand to ship it with. The situation just didn't feel right to me and although the logical decision seems to be to shove I went with my gut and very reluctantly folded.

There's no such thing as a profitable fold, folding is 0 EV, except in cases where folding has a direct impact on ICM (Final table of WSOP ME, payouts range from $1 million to $8 million, there are 8 all-ins in front of you, you have AA and fold).

folding is still -cev, but may be +$ev

Well the 1. Question here must be why bluenowhere is folding to the min. Raise and stating that hé wouldn't Like to flip. At least hé has to Call that raise with the aq hand. After that Call he Will not be able to lay the hand down, for the the Sb, but if org. Raiser shoves hé Will have the decision to Make about if hé wants to flip.

And my guess is now the pot Will be to big to fold to with those stacks

^^This is probably the right answer. This is a tourney, not ring. In ring I can't tell you what is supposed to be done, but in a tourney the factors are different. The action may be the same, but the reasons for that action is not necessarily the same.

I hear that same old argument about being in it to win it, not just getting ITM, and this hand is a good example of why a fold is reasonable.

2 villains, as shorty is in an obvious shove situation, and biggie, yet to act, seems like he is willing to play along. This puts us in an uncomfortable, and unnecessary position, and only our table position gives us any comfort. Biggy has already realized that shorty is essentially pot committed, and is willing to risk what is for him a trivial (relative stacks) amount. That extra dynamic of biggy showing willingness suggests highly that shorties stack is destined to get in there, and we are essentially squeezed. Not a typical standard squeeze, but rather a de facto squeeze.

So, yeah, it may be -EV to fold here in general, it looks like a pretty clear case for a +$EV tourney decision.

I still like flatting here cuz just in case......... But reads on biggy could be a critical deciding factor, and since as stated there are no reads, I can fold this. We can close out the PF action. Academic as OP did fold PF, but as stated, it was iffy.

The really curious part of this hand IMHO, is why shorty didn't shove PF. He doesn't have enuf equity for his reraise to mean anything. So it looks like a sweetener more than anything else, so shorty with monsters is an elevated possibility. UTG+1 seems to have read it that way, and biggy seems to be willing, suggesting he has watched shorty and he does have a read on the table.

This is a hyper turbo tourney so folding after the flop is not a situation I want to be getting into, if that happens I'm going to be short stacked and I'll have to shove in the next few orbits. At this point its pretty much shove/fold, flatting isn't really an option. The min raise from UTG+1 just felt very strong and could have easily been a monster looking to induce.I'm figuring here I'm a slgiht underdog at best, crushed at worst.

Just now adding in that Hyper Turbo info? Totally changes everything.

That AQ now becomes a must shove IMHO, and your fold became bad.

Yea sorry, I presumed it would say at the top where it says the BI but I've just looked and it doesn't. I still wouldn't be convinced by the shove though. The winnings rapidly increase as we reach the top position and I'm in a pretty good position to let some other players knock themselves out and look to push with a decent hand from late position with no action pre to steal blinds and maybe get called by worse hands.

If it a hyper I think it's a clear shove, not that I am hyper expert ...

yea i would fold too. UTG+1 is gonna bet/push. And if he doesn't MP is sure gonna, so you have to hit to call.

If your playing in super low stakes you might get a couple crazies with midpairs and small aces, I would call here and see a flop