Minimum hand to call an all-in during the final table bubble

#1 9th March 2010, 2:18 PM

Hi all,

I just joined the forum. I hope I can improve my game through this forum.

I just played 10$ MTT on FTP (around 400 people).

I played pretty good poker. during the final table bubble (12 people left), I was considerably aggressive. In fact, when I was in the hijack, UTG+1 raised 3BB and 2 people before me called. Knowing that UTG+1 is a weak player, I put in an all-in squeeze with middle pair. All fold! And I am now the second chip leader with 72,000++ in chips. And several hands later, I got a situation:

Chips: 68,000++
Position: Button
Blinds: 1,500/3,000 with some antes.
Hand: JJ

All folded to me, looking at nice two Jacks. I put my standard 2.5BB raise. SB folds, BB shoved for 46,000.

What I was thinking:
- This guy wants to tell me that I cannot bully the table any longer! But he doesnt know that I hold a decent hand.
- his game is pretty good, so I put him on KQo, A9s, KK and everything in between. I didnt put him on AA since no way was he going to shove all his chips for 7,500 raise.
- I play for the 1st place (well, the final three is fine!). If I won this hand, then I am almost guaranteed to ship this tourney all the way.

What happened?? Running into QQ. No miraculous Jack. Got crippled and finally finished 12th.

Questions:
1. Should I fold my two Jacks in this spot? Considering I've been so agggressive and now holding decent hand..?

2. If I want to be aggressive during the final table bubble, and willing to take a coin flip, then what is the minimum hand to call an all-in?? What is the maximum chips you can afford to lose?

3. Anything, suggestions, critics are really appreciated!!

#2 9th March 2010, 6:50 PM

If someone puts you all in before the bubble preflop and you have JJ you defenitly fold if you are there for some the money. If you wanna win the tournament you will also fold. I do not think someone risk his chips before the bubble with nothing, and at a flipcoin you are at disatvantage cose if you lose all your chips you are out. Here you had to think about other things than position. You have to think also about staying in the game and play the next hand. JJ is a strong hand but not that strong in front of KQ, AQ, AK, not to speak of QQ,KK,AA. But the most important thing in a tournament that you forgot about is that the chips you have in your hand are more important than the ones you might win. Staying in the game for another chance when not sure what to do is one of the things that a lot of ppl forget about.

#3 9th March 2010, 6:54 PM

In a final table bubble in an MTT, I'm only calling an all in with KK/AA unless its against short stackers, and I'll open up to TT+, AQ+

#4 9th March 2010, 7:01 PM

Depends if villian is tag or lag. What kinds of hands has he shown down? Whats your current chip position? We need to know his shoving range to determine our calling range and then go from there.

#5 9th March 2010, 8:42 PM

fold. just get out. not worth it.

#6 9th March 2010, 8:43 PM

I think that typically your theory is correct, however given the situation it is slightly off. You had him covered, so him shoving into you makes it more likely that he has a much tigheter range then you are giving him. I would say atleast AK/AA/KK/QQ/and maybe AQ/1010. Given that you could justify a fold, however I think I typically like you could not lay this one down.

#7 9th March 2010, 9:28 PM

I like your strategy, but it sounds as if it could be tweaked a bit here. You have played aggressive and put many people to the test. But I think if anyone plays back at your...especially on the bubble, you should fold. Why not keep doing what you were doing and continue to pick up the pots you are fairly confident of winning.

I can see you making the call w/ KK's or AA's, but everything else is a minimum coin flip. You could be ahead, but risking this so late in the tournament, it's probably better to just give it away (you didn't risk much of your stack anyway) and just continuing pushing people around until they push back.

#8 10th March 2010, 5:07 AM

I agree with what most people said only play the best hands possible for the FT bubble. you want to get to the final table and keeping your chips is the best way to do that. the other thing you have to remember if he was not playing as aggresive as you he might of had a bigger hand, you said you put him on many different hands and most of them had you beat, so why call with the FT in sight. If he had KK Ak AQ or other like you said he would of still had you beat if he hit the just one over card, and you would of needed to hit your set to win. I play to win also but making the final table is the first step to do that!

#9 10th March 2010, 5:31 AM

I look at this situation in the following manner... if you knew that he had AK or AQ would you call his all in w/ your JJ? The reason I ask that question is because you obviously would fold if you knew he had AA, KK, or the QQ he ended up showing.

Putting out almost 40,000 more chips for a race is a really easy way to undo all the hard work you put in to get where you were. Take your 60,000 chips and chalk his move up to solid, aggressive play. It's actually okay to fold the best hand, especially if you don't know that it is the best.

Maybe by calling there you are really hoping you're lucky enough that he has a smaller pocket pair. Frankly I wouldn't be too excited about anything else - even Ace rag would scare me, although we'd all probably call here if you knew that's what he had.

It seems like I'm suggesting you only call here if you have AA or KK, maybe QQ (I think I fold AK as well), unless you have a history on the guy that makes a weak hand very likely.

#10 10th March 2010, 6:31 AM

Depends on how the guy played before!
Has he been aggressive and do you know his playing style?
Many people do not think the way you do, they just play their cards!
If you run into someone like that you need to have AA to call an all in in that situation. Sometimes it could be mathematicaly correct to fold all hands...
Depends on the stack of all other players....

#11 10th March 2010, 6:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ambil_resiko

Questions:
1. Should I fold my two Jacks in this spot? Considering I've been so agggressive and now holding decent hand..? No!! You have to put him on a range tighter than TT+, AK for this to be a fold. You're getting roughly 1/2.5 so you need only 40% equity to call. You gladly take a flip here. In large MTTs, you play for top 3, not the final table. If you look at the prize distribution, you'll notice that most of the money is in the top 3, not 9th place. Additionally, you have him covered, and flipping over a legitimate hand gives more credibility to your standard raises.

2. If I want to be aggressive during the final table bubble, and willing to take a coin flip, then what is the minimum hand to call an all-in?? What is the maximum chips you can afford to lose? This really depends on villain reshove range. I'm almost never folding TT+, AK but how much wider you get from there has to do with villain's range.

3. Anything, suggestions, critics are really appreciated!! You're most likely being results oriented because you lost. Keep playing aggressive keep going deep. Eventually, the cards will fall your way and take one down.

Anyone that says fold here needs to re-evaluate their MTT game...

Also, removing AA from villains range is probably a mistake. What else can villain do with AA than shove over your raise? He can call and hope you hit the flop or minreraise which looks extremely strong anyways because he's putting a quarter of his stack in which means he's not folding unless he's doing it with total air. I guess he could also be a complete donkey or represent himself as a complete donkey but that gets too complicated for analytical purposes.

#12 10th March 2010, 7:33 AM

Any one that says fold here has to get a doctor to check him for nitsomnia(<-----oh yeah i maked up a word) imo.

-We have been active so villain is gonna put us on a wide range and there for do this with a wider range.
-We are raising from the BTN making both are ranges even wider.
-We are geting a good price.
-Villains M is <10 so he should be shoving/restealing alot.
-We actualy have a hand the does well against his range.
-If we win we have a great stack, if we lose where in bad shape but still not out.

This really is a no brainer imo.

#13 10th March 2010, 8:12 AM

It seems that there are two sides to this discussion. Wurly and sindri give legitimate points as to why a call would be a good choice here. However, I have lately been re-evaluating my MTT play and I think that a fold here might not be that bad after all, as pokerstudent points out - why not keep doing what is working to pickup the dead money.

The thing that hasn't been discussed yet is the reasons why you would and why you wouldn't call in a situation such as this where your equity is likely to be a coinfilp. I think the main considerations wheter or not to take it would be the skill of the players and the structure of the game. In quite a fast structure with tough opponents I would call here a large percentage of the time. However, if the opponents were quite bad and I could pick up free pots left and right, then its not worth it to risk the position that I have built up.

In this situation, I would likely fold, as in my experience the players on $10 tournaments are not that great and I think that with the 2nd chip lead I could take down the tournament a huge percentage of the time especially if people let me abuse the bubble and pick up chips without risking a high percentage of my stack.

#14 10th March 2010, 8:18 AM

No seriously you can frame there being a discussion or something but unless you have a read that the guy shoving is an extreme nit folding should never even cross your mind. The question you should be asking is how fast do you click the call button. Since I'm not a fan of slowrolling I say call as fast as possible. He's got like 15bb and you say you've been active. If he's any good at all he's shoving probably close to any pair tons of SCs bunch of broadway hands and suited Ax hands. Sure his range also has QQ+ but we absolutely crush his range here and this is just a super fistpump snap call. Folding is not a different style or different argument, folding is quite simply giving up money. The guy shoving has handed you a certain amount of chips in the long run that is worth however much equity in the long run and you say no thanks here take my chips/money equity. If you are folding jacks here barring an insane read that he's just a super-nit you quite simply are costing yourself a lot of money here. This is just a snapcall and it's not really close.

#15 10th March 2010, 8:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bubonicplay

Folding is not a different style or different argument, folding is quite simply giving up money. The guy shoving has handed you a certain amount of chips in the long run that is worth however much equity in the long run and you say no thanks here take my chips/money equity.

I understand that folding is giving up equity, but you can't just think of the equity in call vs. fold, but on a much deeper level such going on to think about how the decision affects your future scenarios and possible placement in the tournament. Below its the maths considerations to justify this.

Lets say we have 65% equity in this spot (which is a little on the high side). That means that 35% we loose and are unlikely to get into the final table. We can assume that with the stack we can get into the final table close to 100%, unless coolered, if we fold. Then you calculate if your expected value with the chances of making each spot is better when you fold on average versus calling.

Of course nobody really does the maths in a sitaution like this, but its something to consider. There are still deeper levels here such as how the possible results of calling or folding work with your bankroll strategy, as well as affect you psychologically

I personally see very little value in telling people if they made the right call or not, because it is much more important to get people to think of the different factors that they need to consider in their decision making as that is what really propels you forward to make better plays.

#16 10th March 2010, 9:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flint

It seems that there are two sides to this discussion. Wurly and sindri give legitimate points as to why a call would be a good choice here. However, I have lately been re-evaluating my MTT play and I think that a fold here might not be that bad after all, as pokerstudent points out - why not keep doing what is working to pickup the dead money.

The thing that hasn't been discussed yet is the reasons why you would and why you wouldn't call in a situation such as this where your equity is likely to be a coinfilp. I think the main considerations wheter or not to take it would be the skill of the players and the structure of the game. In quite a fast structure with tough opponents I would call here a large percentage of the time. However, if the opponents were quite bad and I could pick up free pots left and right, then its not worth it to risk the position that I have built up.

In this situation, I would likely fold, as in my experience the players on $10 tournaments are not that great and I think that with the 2nd chip lead I could take down the tournament a huge percentage of the time especially if people let me abuse the bubble and pick up chips without risking a high percentage of my stack.

Your edge would need to be HUGE to lay this down. This isn't your first table with half of your opponents being fish. Everyone has outlasted ~95% of the field so some of your opponents will be good. Furthermore, you keep stealing and folding to raises. What will happen? People will raise you more putting you on air every time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by flint

I understand that folding is giving up equity, but you can't just think of the equity in call vs. fold, but on a much deeper level such going on to think about how the decision affects your future scenarios and possible placement in the tournament. Below its the maths considerations to justify this.

Lets say we have 65% equity in this spot (which is a little on the high side). That means that 35% we loose and are unlikely to get into the final table. We can assume that with the stack we can get into the final table close to 100%, unless coolered, if we fold. Then you calculate if your expected value with the chances of making each spot is better when you fold on average versus calling.

Of course nobody really does the maths in a sitaution like this, but its something to consider. There are still deeper levels here such as how the possible results of calling or folding work with your bankroll strategy, as well as affect you psychologically

I personally see very little value in telling people if they made the right call or not, because it is much more important to get people to think of the different factors that they need to consider in their decision making as that is what really propels you forward to make better plays.

As I stated before, the bold part is the incorrect way to approach MTTs. In every MTT, you should be maximizing your $EV. The majority of the prize pool is in the top finishing spots, NOT the 7th-9th place. Thus, you should always be aiming to finish in those top spots and be willing to gamble along the way unless your edge is HUGE. You'd rather have a 50% chance to reach the final 3 and a 50% chance to bust on the final table bubble rather than a 100% chance to reach the final table but only a 15% chance to make the final 3. If you have bankroll or psychological issues, either play only tournaments you're rolled for and/or realize that you almost always want to be maximizing your $EV. Furthermore, psychological gratification should be highly correlated to total money won because, in the end, that is what you're playing for.

#17 10th March 2010, 9:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WurlyQ

Your edge would need to be HUGE to lay this down. This isn't your first table with half of your opponents being fish. Everyone has outlasted ~95% of the field so some of your opponents will be good. Furthermore, you keep stealing and folding to raises. What will happen? People will raise you more putting you on air every time.

You make a very valid point about raising and folding, it will change the dynamic somewhat. The situation as described however was that OP was able to steal pot(s) from weaker players with no showdown.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WurlyQ

As I stated before, the bold part is the incorrect way to approach MTTs. In every MTT, you should be maximizing your $EV. The majority of the prize pool is in the top finishing spots, NOT the 7th-9th place. Thus, you should always be aiming to finish in those top spots and be willing to gamble along the way unless your edge is HUGE. You'd rather have a 50% chance to reach the final 3 and a 50% chance to bust on the final table bubble rather than a 100% chance to reach the final table but only a 15% chance to make the final 3. If you have bankroll or psychological issues, either play only tournaments you're rolled for and/or realize that you almost always want to be maximizing your $EV. Furthermore, psychological gratification should be highly correlated to total money won because, in the end, that is what you're playing for.

You might have misunderstood my post, $EV was what I was talking about - it doesn't really matter where the dollars come from is what I am saying. This situation is interesting as the pay jump after you reach the final table is usually substantial and that is what I meant by making the final table close to 100%.

By bankroll I mean that if the $EV estimates of folding and calling were close, one might take the less variance road if it helps to move up in stakes.

I would agree that gratification is correlated to money won, but of course the win always feels better than just cashing which might be a justification to take higher risks that might not even be the highest $EV of the possible options.

#18 10th March 2010, 10:47 AM

Guys,

Thanks a lot for the discussion. It for sure opens up many things should I face this situation again.

Well, forgot to mention that the opponent that shoved with QQ actually was pretty aggressive during the bubble. I guess in our table, there were 3 people who's doing the stealing (but I was the no.1 bad guy!).

That's why I was actually happy when he shoved because I knew I was ahead, even when I put him on having two overcards than my two Jacks.

I also forgot to mention his range could very well include a pair below Jacks.

Had I not been so active during the bubble, then I know that calling a shove with JJ, especially that may cost more than 2/3 of my stack, is wrong and therefore EASY fold!

But the scenario is now different. I was so active and now in the BTN. My opponent could think that I was playing ATC here and my range was VERY, VERY wide while in fact, I was holding JJ. That's why I called his shove in this spot.

After all, I am still confused on two things I like from our discussion:
1. I still like the idea about folding the best hand, especially if I'm not sure it is indeed the best hand! Then doing what I had been doing again. (but again, if I fold this hand, I doubt that I can bully the table again since now people know that I will fold for a big reraise. I know in a 10$ MTT there are not many good players, but these players in the bubble have outlasted more than 95% of the players, so I guess they have decent games).

2. I also like the idea about "50% to top 3 and 50% to bust in the bubble" is better than "100% get in to the final table".

Still looking forward to our discussion..

Thanks guys

#19 10th March 2010, 2:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WurlyQ

Anyone that says fold here needs to re-evaluate their MTT game...

Also, removing AA from villains range is probably a mistake. What else can villain do with AA than shove over your raise? He can call and hope you hit the flop or minreraise which looks extremely strong anyways because he's putting a quarter of his stack in which means he's not folding unless he's doing it with total air. I guess he could also be a complete donkey or represent himself as a complete donkey but that gets too complicated for analytical purposes.

This was my strongest thought as well. OP say KK & QQ are within his range, why not AA? Disagree on the donkey - the OP says the opponent is a good player.

I have a couple questions for the OP? 1) When you're "in the hijack"? lol What is this, button? BB? 2) How is it that a 400+ MTT pays out only 11 spots??

#20 10th March 2010, 3:06 PM

In this situation I use to fold these jacks.

I only make this call with KK+

But if I was a little shorter, I would pay it off.

#21 10th March 2010, 7:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flint

You make a very valid point about raising and folding, it will change the dynamic somewhat. The situation as described however was that OP was able to steal pot(s) from weaker players with no showdown. I mean, I guess if you can steal 75% of the time raising a 20% range or something crazy like that, you can lay it down. Otherwise, when people start fighting back, what is your calling range? QQ+? That's a 1.4% range.

You might have misunderstood my post, $EV was what I was talking about - it doesn't really matter where the dollars come from is what I am saying. This situation is interesting as the pay jump after you reach the final table is usually substantial and that is what I meant by making the final table close to 100%. I'm looking at the pay structure of an MTT on Stars and the prize for 10th, 9th, 8th, and 7th is .8%, 1.09%, 1.8%, and 2.6% while prize for 3rd, 2nd, and 1st is 8.3%, 11.75%, and 16.2%.

By bankroll I mean that if the $EV estimates of folding and calling were close, one might take the less variance road if it helps to move up in stakes. I mean, sure if hero has 35-40% equity against villains range, $EV would be close and folding to reduce variance would be fine. That is not the case here.

I would agree that gratification is correlated to money won, but of course the win always feels better than just cashing which might be a justification to take higher risks that might not even be the highest $EV of the possible options.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ambil_resiko

Guys,

Thanks a lot for the discussion. It for sure opens up many things should I face this situation again.

Well, forgot to mention that the opponent that shoved with QQ actually was pretty aggressive during the bubble. I guess in our table, there were 3 people who's doing the stealing (but I was the no.1 bad guy!).

That's why I was actually happy when he shoved because I knew I was ahead, even when I put him on having two overcards than my two Jacks.

I also forgot to mention his range could very well include a pair below Jacks.

Had I not been so active during the bubble, then I know that calling a shove with JJ, especially that may cost more than 2/3 of my stack, is wrong and therefore EASY fold!

But the scenario is now different. I was so active and now in the BTN. My opponent could think that I was playing ATC here and my range was VERY, VERY wide while in fact, I was holding JJ. That's why I called his shove in this spot.

After all, I am still confused on two things I like from our discussion:
1. I still like the idea about folding the best hand, especially if I'm not sure it is indeed the best hand! Then doing what I had been doing again. (but again, if I fold this hand, I doubt that I can bully the table again since now people know that I will fold for a big reraise. I know in a 10$ MTT there are not many good players, but these players in the bubble have outlasted more than 95% of the players, so I guess they have decent games).

As stated before, your skill edge is a big factor here as well as the pot odds you are getting.

2. I also like the idea about "50% to top 3 and 50% to bust in the bubble" is better than "100% get in to the final table".

The finishing distribution %'s are kind of arbitrary, but lets look at at $EV for a given Stars prize structure. I'm going to categorize finishes and average prizes to 12th-10th, 9th-7th, 6th-4th, and 3rd-1st for ease of calculation purposes.

(taken from a random Stars tourney)
12th -10th : 0.8%
9th - 7th : 1.8%
6th - 4th : 4.6%
3rd - 1st : 12.1%

Now let's compare the $EV of the following 2 finishing distributions:

50%, 0%, 0%, 50%
12th - 10th : 0.8% * 50% = 0.4%
9th - 7th : 1.8% * 0%
6th - 4th : 4.6% * 0%
3rd - 1st : 12.1% * 50% = 6.05%
$EV = 0.4% + 6.05% = 6.45% of prize pool

0%, 50%, 30%, 20%
12th - 10th : 0.8% * 0%
9th - 7th : 1.8% * 50% = 0.9%
6th - 4th : 4.6% * 30% = 1.38%
3rd - 1st : 12.1% * 20% = 2.42%
$EV = 0.9% + 1.38% + 2.42% = 4.7% of prize pool

In short, the money is in the top 3 finishing spots.

Still looking forward to our discussion..

Thanks guys

Responses above.

#22 11th March 2010, 1:48 AM

i think it would be smart to fold JJ here. JJ looks strong because of the paint but there are so many hands that can beat you. especially for such a large amount of your stack it wouldn't be worth the risk.

#23 11th March 2010, 2:18 AM

The idea of folding JJ in BTN vs. BB near the bubble just kinda tilts me. If this guy is "pretty good" he should be shoving just about any two cards if we really want to fold a top 5 hand here. This is just a cooler, move on.

#24 11th March 2010, 4:54 AM

Divebitch,

The hijack: the seat before the cutoff.

Nope, the pay structures pay around 36 people.

Why I didnt put him on AA it's just because if he has the nuts preflop, why not just call and check-raise all-in on the flop.

I know, it would be a very good play to shove AA in this spot, pretending that you are in panic mode and donkey mode while you have the rockets!

#25 11th March 2010, 4:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ambil_resiko

2. If I want to be aggressive during the final table bubble, and willing to take a coin flip, then what is the minimum hand to call an all-in?? What is the maximum chips you can afford to lose?

Start putting people on ranges. If you want to take a coinflip, call with a hand you think is roughly 50% vs. their range. In some situations, this could mean QJs. In others, you might want to fold AQ.

Moreover, you should be taking worse than coinflips with blinds and antes in play, as the pot is often going to offer you 3-2 spots.

Quote:

3. Anything, suggestions, critics are really appreciated!!

stop being results oriented. If villain had shown up with TT and you doubled up, somehow I doubt this thread would exist.

#26 11th March 2010, 12:51 PM

Wurly, your numbers are off somewhat. How is the top 3 spots so unlikely if OP is the second chip leader at the start of the hand? Assuming that the skill level was equal (as in a computer simulation), OP would in the long run finish according to level of chips after fold.

I do agree that with the added info (that villain was also being very aggressive and a decent player) means that calling with the jacks is very likely to be the most profitable option.

I find it interesting that many people have commented the specific hand, but since the question of the whole thread is what is the minimum to call an all-in in this situation, I would say that TT is already probably close and nines could be folded.

#27 11th March 2010, 4:24 PM

A fairly ez fold here...JJ is about 51 percent(i believe) against 2 overcards...assuming he doesnt have a better pair already(which villian did) a loss in the hand left you with about 5 bbs where a fold left you with just over 20.

cheers and gl

#28 11th March 2010, 5:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flint

Wurly, your numbers are off somewhat. How is the top 3 spots so unlikely if OP is the second chip leader at the start of the hand? Assuming that the skill level was equal (as in a computer simulation), OP would in the long run finish according to level of chips after fold.

Look at what I was responding to please... Obviously, we can not have a 0% chance to finish in any given spot if we still have chips. I was illustrating a point (that the money is in the top 3 or so finishing spots). I was using a simplified finishing probability distribution so that I wouldn't scare away 99% of whoever reads that post. If you're talking about ICM, I'm almost certain that it would tell you that this is a snap call.

If you want to show any logic or math that proves the money is NOT in the top 3 or so finishing spots using an actual prize distribution and reasonable finishing distributions, or if you want to calculate $EV for this situation, feel free. It will tell you that this is a snap call against everything but the tightest of reshove ranges.

I do agree that with the added info (that villain was also being very aggressive and a decent player) means that calling with the jacks is very likely to be the most profitable option.

I find it interesting that many people have commented the specific hand, but since the question of the whole thread is what is the minimum to call an all-in in this situation, I would say that TT is already probably close and nines could be folded.

baudib and I have already responded to this, but this depends entirely on what you think villain's range is. I gave my range as never being tighter than TT+, AK and how much wider it gets depending on villain reshove range while baudib said he may fold AQ while calling other times with QJs so I'm guessing he's looking at a similar range.

Here are approximate calling ranges given villain reshove ranges requiring 40% equity and having no edge:
5% reshove range: TT+, AK
10% reshove range: 66+, AJ+
20% reshove range: 22+, A7+, KJ+

Responses above

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