Min bet the new thang

Hey everyone.

I was talking with a friend the other day. He is a regular MTT 5 day a week player. He's been profitable for a couple of years and before FT got shut down he did it full-time. ANYWAY...

I railed him for a couple of hours the other day and noticed he was min-raising in the middle to late stages of tournaments. This was when it was folded around to him in late position. This was a newer feature to his game, but from what I got out of his explanation was this gives him more options while still taking down the pot enough times that it is more profitable than a bigger raise.

Poker is ever-evolving as trends of play change... so will the strategies to combat them.

Thoughts. GO!

yep

Yes, my bro does well with same strategy. Easy to do, 2X Blind button is there, less work, less chance, and usually same effect as a 3X bet which takes more clicks and interferes with popcorn consumption....

i also agree with the min raise in the later stages of the game if im on a tight table. but if the table is loose i like to make it a pot size bet to keep the calling stations out of the hand or atleast make them pay to see a flop.

if the blinds are high, a min bet will get it. post flop, a min bet with a monster will induce an allin, weeeeeee. If I bet small, fold, If I bet big, call. ty

I tend to just 2.1xBB as I feel the few extra chips risked gains enough FE to make it more profitable. I know it doesn't make much of a difference but I looked over a few hundred hands in my database and 2.1xBB definitely had the edge albeit over a small sample size.

Thank you for making me LOL (I love these little gems buried in strategy posts.)

2xbb makes sense especially late in tourneys when blinds are high.

If it's anything like the MTT's I play in then a pot size bet will not deter them from seeing a flop. It always amazes me when blinds are 15/30 and you have 5 limpers and the BB bumps it to 350 and 4 out of the 5 call. Some people just really really want to see a flop.

move up to where they respect your raises

Actually I was thinking about this strategy yesterday, say I flop middle pair and check OP on a dry board. Then I get min raised, I have to call right? I could bet then BOOM 3x my bet raise, it's sneaky. It works great against AK, AQ, AJs etc. hands that draw dead on flop.


Now I have huge draw hand for flush or openender, min raise doesn't work normally.pot odds are usually in favor of draw in big drawing hands. Now on turn I am a little stuck ,make hand and bet and get folded to, raise and get fold, Draw dead and expect pot sized raise.

He probably would if proper BRM allowed it.

As for min-raising, where's the value in that for your monster hands?

Yeah, the min-raise thing doesn't work well in the early levels of cheap, large-field MTTs. If you don't want a call, or likely several callers, you usually have to really over-bet, and you'll still get called sometimes.

As you get deeper into the tournament, though, the min-raise becomes a more effective strategy since your opponents will realize that even by calling a small raise they are, effectively, committing themselves and their whole stack to the pot.

min-raise has been fairly common late with so few bbs but large blinds that you can win the blinds enough to be profitable and can (sometimes) fold easier to a 3-bet shove.

When I play live tournaments I see people raise like 3xBB in the late stage of the tournament and I look at their stack and its 60% or more of their stack and they don't realize a lot of times that you have to adjust with the amount of BBs you have

Yeah well the whole min-raise thing has been going on for awhile now. It's an effective strategy so far as high blinds proportionate to your stack size is considered.

I feel like it does come off extremely weak to certain players though.. At the same time it makes it seem almost not that worth it to play back at considering such a small raise, they'd rather take the pot odds and call.

It also totally disguises your monster hands and gets calls at times from completely dominated hands, a good thing, and a bad thing. Depends on the results. (Could get sucked out on giving them such good odds)

I wonder though, I would like opinions here.. What do you think is a better move with around 10 BB's in a tournament or SNG, to shove in late position or to min-raise?

Always should be shoving with 10BBs in that position. People seeing you minraise with that small of a stack will be highly suspicious.

Here's a fine example of why you shouldn't min-raise.

Excuse the HH, wrong format according to CC poker hand converter so it wouldn't convert the hand.


PokerStars Hand #73709473390: Tournament #496750383, $0.50+$0.05 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2012/01/12 5:21:00 ET
Table '496750383 163' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: wolfgang7112 (15610 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: mai2002 (1900 in chips)
Seat 3: tomheine (5481 in chips)
Seat 4: Kamros (26103 in chips)
Seat 5: Danik7788 (7510 in chips)
Seat 6: Orion469 (6000 in chips)
Seat 7: zzzzbg (2010 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: timcsi1203 (6155 in chips)
Seat 9: shinkar1986 (1500 in chips)
timcsi1203: posts small blind 75
shinkar1986: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Orion469 [Th Qh]
wolfgang7112: folds
mai2002: raises 150 to 300
tomheine: folds
Kamros: calls 300
Danik7788: folds
Orion469: calls 300
zzzzbg: folds
timcsi1203: folds
shinkar1986: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js Kd 9c]
mai2002: checks
Kamros: bets 450
Orion469: raises 5250 to 5700 and is all-in
mai2002: calls 1600 and is all-in
Kamros: folds
Uncalled bet (4100) returned to Orion469
*** TURN *** [Js Kd 9c] 3♦
*** RIVER *** [Js Kd 9c 3d] A♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mai2002: shows [As Ad] (three of a kind, Aces)
Orion469: shows [Th Qh] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
Orion469 collected 4775 from pot
mai2002 finished the tournament in 1122nd place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4775 | Rake 0
Board [Js Kd 9c 3d Ah]
Seat 1: wolfgang7112 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: mai2002 showed [As Ad] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 3: tomheine folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Kamros folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Danik7788 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Orion469 showed [Th Qh] and won (4775) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 7: zzzzbg (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: timcsi1203 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: shinkar1986 (big blind) folded before Flop

If you would have folded for more, this is a prime example of why you SHOULD minraise. You have no business calling a raise from a 13-BB stack with 3 people behind. Way to be results oriented.

Are you folding suited broadway cards to a min-raise?, if so, you might be in the wrong here.
With an "M" value of 26 I think I have enough room to play this against a min-raise.
Also, it's only costing me 5% of my stack which would also allow me to play 55+.

BTW, I'm not being results oriented because I play suited broadway cards and suited connectors to any min-raise provided it doesn't cost me more than 10% of my stack.

Yes, I'm folding suited broadway cards to a min-raise vs. a 13-bb stack from EP. If you think you can profitably call with speculative hands here you understand nothing about tournament poker and don't know how to apply math to basic preflop spots.

Stop looking at your M and look at effective stacks. It costs $300 to call vs. someone who can only put in another 1,600.

If you make this call 20 times you will outflop AA 5% of the time, or 1 in 20. If you hold up that means you win around $2,400. That means 19 other times you are calling to fold the flop, you lose $5,700.

That doesn't include the times that the flop comes Q-high or T-high or KJx/J9x or with 2 hearts and you put more money in behind.

It also doesn't include the number of times you get squeezed by 2 very short stacks behind you, or get squeezed by a bigger stack behind you. You can probably expect to get squeezed about 25% of the time at an extremely conservative estimate.

That means, out of 20 calls:

You get squeezed 5 times and have to fold. -$1,500
You will outflop an overpair and win his stack .75 times. +$1,800
You face a bet when you're behind 14.25 times. Even if you fold all the times you don't flop 2 pair+ you've lost $4,275. That number grows when you call when you hit a piece.



You are 100% being results oriented. Show all the other times you call with QTs in this spot.

Now you made me look at my PT stats on this and you are correct, coldcalling preflop with QTs may have a negative impact where out of the 13 times I cold-called I had only won 20% when going to showdown but won 30% of the time when I saw the flop and have won a total of 47% of 135 times I have had QTs.

This is only around 49k hands though.

Very True...As far as that hand goes above, I believe in the min-raising the initial poster is referring to would be when the ante's kick in near the later stages of the tournament. That is when I believe they are most effective. At this stage in the level min-raising in that position I feel is ineffective and you should be adjusting your betting with your current CSI.

What does win % matter? Look at your average winnings when cold-calling a minraise from a shortstack.

There is also a big stack who called the early position min-raiser in that hand ^^

Pot odds and position over them, it really doesn't seem like that horrific of a call. Maybe barely mathematically improper, but personally Q10s is my favorite hand therefore I have some bias here

Regardless you're probably right baudib1, but also min-raising the way he did does not seem profitable for him as you said earlier. Watch him get into a multi-way pot where his Aces get cracked, it happens all the time. Many pro's say not to play AA like this exactly because of that.

But i'm honestly wondering if min-raising with a 10-12BB stack is profitable late in an SNG? It has worked for me a lot as long as you maintain a tight image.. Plus I feel it gives you a chance to fold your hand and survive if someone 3bets you, when they most likely have a strong hand considering image.

How is it not profitable? He got people to put in 300 when they were crushed.

Yes that may be true, but everyone knows AA doesn't play well in multiway pots, and it is much more profitable if you can get it down to one opponent.

In a situation where As Ac raises, Q10h calls, and 76d calls. Aces become only a 58% favorite to win the hand. Sure still a favorite, definitely something you want as a guy with 13BB's, but also a great way to get your Aces cracked.

You have alot of patience sir.

I think you're perhaps missing the point. Calling a 13bb stack's raise here in this spot with QTs = "NOT GOOD" (no need to explain it further if you 'carefully' & 'thoroughly' read over baudib's posts above & try to digest it).

Not bein' a dick here.... just tryin' to be helpful because it's all laid out for you above already.
Question: What hands would you consider 'calling' here vs. a UTG (stack of 13bb) when they've raised from UTG? And what part of their range do you think they'd be just 'raising' here as opposed to open-shoving? (assuming they know what they're doing). What range of hands would/could we assume they'd be open-shoving with in this spot? & then again.. what part of this range would possibly 'raise' as opposed to shove in this spot?

....

Everyone doesn't know that, because it's not true. AA plays great in multiway pots. AA is more profitable the more people are in the hand.

Stakes not the issue. Lots of disrespect at higher buyins also.

2X, 3X, no diff if u r hoping for a 3bet.

I agree.

Exactly.

Deserves a repost. Txs Doc...

Is more profitable, but wins less often, and results in pain when cracked, hence the tendency to try and get HU and have 80% equity... But numbers probably prove u right overall.

It induces people to call crap trying to hit a gin flop!

Now, the only reason I put forth the above HH was to show why you don't min-raise with monster hands, I'm in the group of ppl who know min-raising is not a good idea period.

The points given about my HH are well taken and that leak will now be plugged, thanks for the analysis but my stand on min-raising is firm, I will almost always call a min-raise for 5% of my stack in hopes of punishing those who think min-raising is cool.
As a matter of fact, there are alot of times I call a min-raise with suited broadway cards having a feeling that the min-raiser has me beat pre-flop, but the call barely takes from my stack so I don't have a problem making the call.

I know that most of the time I make this call I'm check/folding alot of the time to a dry flop but it had only costed me a small portion to call pre-flop.

Again, as for min-raisers who do it with monster hands, most do it in hopes of inducing a re-raise from weaker hands and I know this fully when deciding to make the call therefore I only call instead of re-raising.

Effective stacks play a large part in most of my decisions, so do playing styles of my opponents, but I sometimes like to mix my play up a bit, I'm still learning how to adjust my play instead of playing a solid TAG style through-out any tourney and as with anything you learn, there are bound to be some learning curves which you have to adjust to.

It's not just about what we have in our stack. If we're headsup, we're 'effectively' only playing as deep as villain's stack.

If you read my full post I am not arguing the play by Q10. So that is not the point I am making therefore this has nothing to do with my post. Not trying to be a dick here either, honestly just discussing play.

I am arguing the play by AA UTG. To me regardless of the fact it can play great in multiway pots, it is not how you get the most out of AA, and I guarantee you will find yourself on the rail a lot of times. Why? Simply because AA looks great on a lot of flops and you'll have an awful hard time letting it go. I just provided you with the math when AA versus Q10h and 76d and it is 58%, like I said in my previous post it IS a favorite still, but I'm pretty sure no one wants to be a 58% favorite with AA. How about taking your 81%, stay in the game, and stop being greedy.

If this was such a great idea then why do most pros play it the exact opposite way, with ultimate aggression? The weak callers might be the ones making the bad move in the long run sure, but I don't believe the min raiser UTG with AA is justified in his action. Sure you can limp with AA, min raise with it, flat call with it, and they all can be very profitable for you, but their is a reason top players play it with great aggression.