Interesting Hand!

This is a local live $210 buy-in deep stack tournament with 30 minute levels and 35K starting stacks; the following hand takes place in the second level with blinds at $100 $200 and no ante.

The player from UTG +1 limps in for $200 and everyone folds to me in the hijack seat. I find .

The UTG player is an older man (probably between 50 and 60) and is your classic NIT/rock. I raise to $600 and he calls after everyone else folds.

Given how he has played the hand so far I can nearly certainly throw every hand he should have from UTG out of the window and be fairly confident that he opened light. Of the remaining playable range for this player, pocket pairs 9 9 and less dominate. However he could still have K 10 or Q J or something like that.

Flop: (Pot $1500)



My opponent checks and I bet $1K. He raises to $3K and I call.

With the C/R his range is now extremely narrow and has pretty much been reduced to any two pair combinations or sets. I can’t really see how any two pair combo’s would be in his range, so it’s not too hard to surmise that he has a set of threes or fours.

Turn: (Pot $7500)



My opponent bets $6K and I flat.

River: (Pot $19,500)



My opponent checks and I just drop the rest of my chips in the pot. This triggers his call as he can’t get his chips in fast enough. He shows and I take it down.

I have a couple of issues with this one though:

1. He has done an excellent job of defining his range for me with a C/R on the flop. This is the defining moment in this hand as I now hold one pair to a near certain set. Since I know he is a NIT, should I have folded to the C/R?

2. When the comes off on the river and he checks the possibility that he just made quads went through my mind. I knew he had a set, but I didn’t know which one.

Do I follow suit and check – thereby saving myself a lot of chips if he made quad fours?

If I choose that course of action though I think I cost myself tons a value if he has a set of threes.

These factors went through my mind and I wouldn’t have minded if the had not showed up on the river, but I figured it like a flip. I’ve got a 50/50 here as I’m near certain he has one of two hands – if I lose I go buy another stack; but if I win I have effectively doubled up very early on.

Thoughts?

I think assuming he has a PP most of the time range wise is problematic combinametrically (sp?).

There are simply many more combos of AK KQ KJs AQ AQs AJs.....etc. etc. out there.

Are we completely discounting AK limping and calling here....nitty folks have been known to do this OOP.

A2345Razz said:

I think assuming he has a PP most of the time range wise is problematic combinametrically (sp?).

There are simply many more combos of AK KQ KJs AQ AQs AJs.....etc. etc. out there.

Are we completely discounting AK limping and calling here....nitty folks have been known to do this OOP.

Click to expand...

I wouldn’t completely discount AK limp/calling and I didn’t in real time either, but the C/R on the flop throws that hand out the window in my opinion. I know NIT/rocks love to check/call top pair on the flop, but they won’t C/R.

From UTG he should have AQ suited+ and I am nearly certain he doesn’t. There could be a couple of hands that protrude into the premium range but I’ll be able to tell if that’s the case soon enough. With those hands out of the way there are 8 pocket pair combos, the rest of his range is pretty much the same (i.e K J’s and Q 10’s) so while there may actually be more of them it’s easier for me to think in terms of pocket pairs and everything else within reason (probably won’t be any J 3’s). That’s what I meant.

Obviously I will need more information to further narrow it down; and in this case he was more than willing to oblige.

What it comes down to, is the fact that you can rebuy makes this whole argument alot more simple, but even if you couldn't rebuy there are just way too many things to think about than that you just got beat with quads and should fold. Its good that you managed to knock him down to a set of 3 or 4s but its real early into the tournament and every now and then, even the nittiest of players say 'eff it sometimes. When he was going heads up with you, maybe he thought you were a loose agressive player and saw some +ev in playing a K3s or K4s, and maybe if he peeled something off he knew there was a chance that he would have you. Who knows what his thoughts were on you as a player. The biggest factor in all of this is the early stage and blind to stack ratios. When you hit that set, you know you are absolutely fabulous and you have him keen in your sights. If that 4 peels off, sometimes you just have to outweigh the options, and the fact that he would river quads is a disgusting hand, no one would ever discount your poker knowledge if you went balls deep into that pot suspecting he might of had quads, not when more than half of your stack is into the pot already, and there is a very good chance that you will be doubling up. The odds are just so greatly in your favor at that point that he doesn't have that one hand, that you simply just must play that hand. Don't knock yourself over a hand like this, poker is poker, and sometimes it just comes down to outweighing all the major possibilities, and the odds are very very good, that he just doesn't have pocket 4's. Sometimes too much credit is given in poker and you really just have to play it down when you have more benefit than doubt.

usetheion13 said:

What it comes down to, is the fact that you can rebuy makes this whole argument alot more simple, but even if you couldn't rebuy there are just way too many things to think about than that you just got beat with quads and should fold. Its good that you managed to knock him down to a set of 3 or 4s but its real early into the tournament and every now and then, even the nittiest of players say 'eff it sometimes. When he was going heads up with you, maybe he thought you were a loose agressive player and saw some +ev in playing a K3s or K4s, and maybe if he peeled something off he knew there was a chance that he would have you. Who knows what his thoughts were on you as a player. The biggest factor in all of this is the early stage and blind to stack ratios. When you hit that set, you know you are absolutely fabulous and you have him keen in your sights. If that 4 peels off, sometimes you just have to outweigh the options, and the fact that he would river quads is a disgusting hand, no one would ever discount your poker knowledge if you went balls deep into that pot suspecting he might of had quads, not when more than half of your stack is into the pot already, and there is a very good chance that you will be doubling up. The odds are just so greatly in your favor at that point that he doesn't have that one hand, that you simply just must play that hand. Don't knock yourself over a hand like this, poker is poker, and sometimes it just comes down to outweighing all the major possibilities, and the odds are very very good, that he just doesn't have pocket 4's. Sometimes too much credit is given in poker and you really just have to play it down when you have more benefit than doubt.

Click to expand...

No I know and I’m not beating myself about it – I wasn’t going anywhere. But in this case, I’m really not sure if I should have called his C/R on the flop. It’s just that NITS don’t check raise air – or even top pair for that matter – I’m certainly beat at that point even if I can’t explain how. The pot is $5500 so my C/R call is getting ~3.5:1 in position; but I only have 3 realistic outs or about 10:1 against. Once the ace hits the turn I’m in for better or worse – then again if I knew he had quads I would fold every time without question or hesitation as I would hope any successful player would; but as long as there is a chance that he doesn’t have it, I’m in but would be shaking my head if he turned over quads.

There are rebuys allowed, but this is not a rebuy tournament so the payout structure makes any rebuy a questionable +EV scenario – but in the cheaper $200 tournaments I will rebuy occasionally one time and one time only.

I would have loved it if the 4 had not shown on the river or if he had bet like he did on the previous two streets – frankly, his check on the river scared the holy bejesus out of me – and I really don’t know why he checked – neither does he I imagine.

Sometimes, the betting prior and after the flop doesn't give enough info to guarantee you that he had a set, unless you know him better then he knows himself. Had the ace not hit the turn, and he was still firing, you know to get out. I respect you as a better poker player that obviously doesn't run his aces all the way through if the situation is telling him not to.