ICM confusion

So I am trying to improve my sit and go performance just that little bit more to try and boost my profits and am trying to get as close to perfect icm bubble play as I can. Yet something has popped up that I am currently debating in my own head and am not sure on.

in secret of sit and goes by phil shaw chapter 6 icm considerations for bubble play Phil shaw gives an example of a ten handed sit and go with four players left of exact equal stats and works out that you need to be +65.22% to call an all in.

well if we look at some charts from odds and probabilities by Matthew Hilger we see that 88=69% win rate against a random hand and 77 has a 66% win rate meanwhile ak off suit has 65% against a random hand.

this technically means in the given situation from Phil shaws book that Ak is a marginal fold whilst 77 is a marginal call.

obviously this seems wrong to me suffice to say I think theres slightly more to it as AK has its advantage over a lot of hands and gets into trouble against very few, whilst 77 is a coin toss against a much larger range of hands and can be in trouble when dominated.

Long story short I am not folding Ak on the bubble but might fold 77, However if chips=cash which they do and were talking raw odds here doesn't it mean we should be obeying exact icm math?

so is that situation really a fold with AK off suit and a call with 77?

No, ICM does not model chips as being cash. ICM models chips as each being a lottery ticket for a place in the tourney. Thus, the chips have diminishing marginal utility. Also, this situation you present doesn't take into account dead money & such, where you may not need 65% equity.

No, because you're not up against a random hand. You're against hands people like going all in with.

Lets assume a reasonable shoving range is like the top 10% of hands, and see how AK & 77 fair.

Top 10%: 44.114% { 66+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Big Slick: 55.886% { AKo }

Top 10%: 56.546% { 66+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
WalkinStix: 43.454% { 77 }

We seem to have these silly "OMG AK is over-rated" threads all the time...

the Book assumes they are shoving with any two cards so is different on that example. In reality most players have ranges though I will shove when the blinds are on the bubble with a large range in most circumstances. generally any two suited cards any a or k rag any connectors any two face cards or any pair.

But I still would not shove with 8 3 off suit often, except in circumstances where I have become a monster stack and the other three are all short stacked eg me 8000+ the other three stacks 1833 I shouldn't need to explain why I would do that to anyone who can improve my game.

calling of with Ak or aq seems obvious in all situations mind regardless of ICM because if they have any hand range restrictions ak and aq is better against the range then 77. That been said are medium pairs an automatic fold in these situations or is that a mistake I call all ins on the bubble with JJ plus and sometimes 1010 but not often 99 or 88 I just wondering if thats making a mistake in general or is the correct play. 55 or 66 are clearly folds though in my opinion anyway though they are 63 and 60 against a random hand.

you need to post they exact hand history. this has a lot to do with effective stack sizes. if it were an effective stack of 7BB i would snap call with 77 or AK if it were 20BB i fold. if someone with less than 10BB shoves into me I'm more likely to call with a PP. this is assuming i got more chips than him. as a SS chips are worth far more that the ones i risk. and their also 15x more likely to have over cards. but for the most part i want to be the one pushing not calling. we have a micro STT thread i hope will have more discussions like this. maybe post a few HH there and we can discuss them.

Yeah, assuming people do shove any 2 random cards, then yes, you should call with 77, but fold AK in that situation.

However, while there are situations where your opponents will be shoving any 2, those situations are pretty few and far between.

I think you're trying to learn the wrong things from ICM modeling. ICM just gives you an actual way to turn the value of the chips in your stack into real money.

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

Here's an example. 4 players left in a 9 seat $10 sit & go on the bubble. Here is the ICM monetary value/tournament equity of the chip stacks they have.

Player A: 7000 chips, $33.97
Player B: 2700 chips, $21.85
Player C: 2100 chips, $18.51
Player D: 1700 chips, $15.66

Notice that player A has 4 times as many chips as player D, but he only has twice the tournament equity. It should be obvious why this is, because even if player A has all the chips in the tournament, he can only win half the prize pool (first place). And the value of his chips are worth even less than that, because even though his stack is very large in comparison to the field, it does not assure him a first place finish.

Use this tool to sort out situations where you may have chip pot odds to call/shove/fold, but you do not have enough tournament equity to make a particular play.