How Big is the Bubble?

I've been playing a lot of different tournaments and it occured to me a few times that I wasn't actually sure when to start lagging it up on the bubble.

So what I want to know is how big is the proverbial bubble? Here are a few examples as well as a few questions regarding bubble play.


1) 5 + .50 Doublestack Tourney on FTP, 560 entrants, 54 pay.

2) 10 + 1 Daily 30K on Stars, 4176 entrants, 630 pay.

3) 3 + .30 Rebuy 7K on FTP, 1093 entrant, 108 pay.


So when would you say the bubble occurs in each of these tournies?

With 2 times the amount of paying spots left, i.e. ~ 100, 1200 and 200?

If more or less, how many, why?

Also do you believe that you should gradually loosen up your play when nearing the bubble, or is it a certain number of players left that you loosen up?

The bubble certainly isn't an absolute number, but I wouldn't say it's linear either in that it's always 2X the payout, to cite your example. If 630 pay, the bubble starts well after only 1200 remain, in my opinion. I would say more like 800 maybe?

But the reason I can't define the number more specifically is because I judge the bubble by when I see the play at the table change to what should be expected to happen during the bubble. And no, I don't gradually loosen. When I see we're in the bubble, then I loosen. The people who are getting super tight are scared, they're not going to grow a pair and come over the top of one of your raises because they think you are weak. Being tight and folding to the money is what those players are about. Not getting creative.