Fold equity spot - thoughts

Live $250 mega stake in nh poker room.

88bb's Effective pre-flop

CO raises 2.5x, I call on btn, bb calls. 8bb's to flop.

Hero: 47ss

Flop comes: Ts 4d 3s

Bb checks, co checks, I bet 5bb's, bb weakly calls, co raises to 22bb's - making total pot 8+32=40bb's

I instant ship 75bb's.

My thoughts are I can get villain to fold all 1 pair hands which rep most of this particular villans range. Thoughts on this play?

to me co's hand looks like a really strong hand, is he capable of making a squeeze play here to try and fold us out of the pot and then most likely the weak caller aswell.

is calling and shipping the turn when checked to an option?

Probably, but wanted to max fold equity.

She tanked for 5 mins. And said I just think u have JJ or draw. She ended up calling with ATo.

I didn't think she could call with xT and even JJ-AA r tough calls. Either way I'm basically flipping vs. Expected range + fold equity so it's a profitable play with 40k in pot.

^^ agree to some extent, except that the random third player makes this much more complex because we need to account for the times that they wake up with something.

In a HU pot against the appropriate opponent i definitely shove here.

But 3 ways, getting check raised is quite scary and I would lean towards folding or calling and shoving when checked to.

Really the only way you can/should be capable of expecting them to fold a pretty solid hand is if you KNOW they are not a bad player. Bad players make bad plays on a regular basis, that's why they are bad...and making a call of a huge shove with a strong but not the nuts type of hand...well that's what bad players do hehe.

I didn't need her to fold very often to make profitable. Although maybe too high risk at this point in tournament.

Yup. What do you suppose your table image was to her? A factor that should not be ignored when trying to pull this off.

Well my image at the time was lag for sure, but solid. Didn't show any real big bluffs or odd hands.

With the amount in pot I think her never folding is fine too. Either way I got there on the river after she made the call.

what is fold equity?

The portion of the pot one expects to win, on average, by a bet that induces your opponents to fold, rather than seeing the showdown. For example, if your opponent folds 50% of the time to bets in situations like this, your fold equity = (current pot size) * (0.50).

FOLD EQUITY - Click Here

Just seems to me a Lag will have a harder time (especially as time goes on) cashing in on fold equity than a Tag - you know, when you're Lagging it some folks tend to get fed up and start calling. I would think that could cause fold equity to diminish. Yes?

From what I've seen especially in live play, Lags definitely reduce their fold equity over time.

Yes my fold equity does become smaller. Simply use a fold equity calculator and it will show you villain doesn't even need to fold to make profitable. Especially with the understanding I have that most of these live players just don't want to go broke in buy-ins higher than they are used to. This event is the big monthly championship and the largest buyin of the month at this particular poker room.

Doing this live would work way more than online IMHO.

Gotta go with you on that one.

Anyway, back to thoughts on this play - for me it kind of comes back to your intention of doing this. Did you want a fold or a call? Did you even really care one way or the other?

I guess I'm having a hard time connecting the dots here.

I'd rather not get called here. That being said flipping with a pot full of dead chips isn't bad IMHO. I just wonder if it's correct in a tournament setting.

In a vacuum I think the play is good, but I'm unsure if worth risk in tournament.

There is damn little chance the CO is going to fold to your AI after she has already check raised. So fold equity has very little to do with this hand after that happened. She put you on a range based on your loose style that told her she was ahead in the hand (and she was right) and bet it aggressively. Your response to shove when it was a pretty sure thing you were behind (and even if ahead, with 2 cards to go, it could easily collapse) was not worth the risk is early stages of tournament play. However the reality of tourneys are you have to take risks to be profitable. I don't think this was a good one though.

You completely discount sets which might well repop that flop with 2 to a flush. TT, 44, 33 never show up here?



If I was her - knowing the particular room and level of play... I'm calling with over pairs, sets.. and AT. it just really smells like a flushdraw - she nailed the read - and I think that mediablitz got it right pretty concisely. check raise just isn't folding after putting in 1/4 their stack.

Disagree Bwammo - to an extent.

You stand a chance of getting a good player to fold. --Although given the action, what hand does villain hold if they are a good player? A big check raise on that flop should say what? Is a good player ever check raising that spot and showing up with a holding where they fold? In that poker room if they are raising 2.5x they are probably not a bad player - most people up there over-raise pre - so the woman is not without a clue.

(Granted I don't like the villains line here - though it indicates to me that she clearly thought she'd get action from the activer players, maybe even OP. In that case I don't hate it at all. But that deep I'm probably cbetting, and flatting any 3bet and wanting to see another card that doesn't make the flush. )

I make the call too if I am her and I don't think I am a bad player. You need to factor in the level of play around you as well. I'm calling goofy fish differently than nitty old men and differently than players that seem/look competent.

If I think in that hand that OP would make a move that some decent % of the time, then I really have to think about calling as while your tourny life is one thing, I'm not passing up small edges for giant stacks that will be worth that much more later on.

OP himself said he'd been pretty lag, but solid. I think he means he was lag but didn't have to showdown any garbage. If I see a laggy youger guy who seems competent - this really makes the % chance of a move or a draw MUCH higher.

Also, your instashove makes me call much faster unless I'm getting a tell that feels like it's the absolute nuts. If you had a truly huge hand you are either flatting or taking a little time before jamming it in.

Anyway, Bwammo- AT is a solid call with what's in the pot and the action if OP is either laggy competent type or otherwise appears to be a poor player.

Top top or an over is good in the right situations - even in the hands of a good player... especially live where one has a much better read.

Cliffs to OP: If yo ucan think through the hand to that level and are playing such a fishy field as I know shows up in that tournament, either 3bet bluff pre or fold pre. Why even get into this situation....

Its maybes a flip for you but once you have shoved in that position you have give your opponent nearly 2/1 odds to call, all those on here saying a good player would fold here dont know what there talking about

Ts 4d 3s was the flop, with 40 bb in the middle when OP 4bet ships 75 bb more. (leaving ~58bb for the villain behind)

SO it's 58 to win the 115 out there which is dead on 2:1. you need 33% equity here to justify calling.

BUt WTF are you SUPPOSED to be up against here that justifies the odds?


A good thinking player might well still fold even getting 2:1. Even leaving FD's in range 2:1 isn't necessarily enough to get in 60bb. It's not like you are short - stacked here.

2:1 isn't enough in this hand to (on odds alone) call if you think you are facing sets, overpairs, Nut flush draws with 2 overs and the 6s5s combo draw (which I think is around the shoving range here since a complete air bluff makes no sense at all. TT I left out as it's unlikely with two tens already out there- but add it in and it's worse.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

37,620 games 0.005 secs 7,524,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 4d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.588% 27.42% 00.17% 10315 63.50 { AhTc }
Hand 1: 72.412% 72.24% 00.17% 27178 63.50 { JJ+, 44-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As2s, 6s5s }

Unless the guy is a complete spazz, AT is a loser here and doesn't have enough equity. 2:1 doesn't cut it.

Does that mean I fold if I hold the AT? not necessarily, it really depends on reads/image from that live setting. If this was on th internet a really good player is just never calling off here against another good player without history. It's just too deepstacked and early.

I'm going to label you a bad player by your analysis MikeG.

I missed this before. It's a better play in a tournament than a cash game as you will have more FE wince tourny life matters.

BUt all that said, I think it's a horrible play by you in this spot, drawing to a bad flush when you might not even have 9 outs since the blind's flop flat could easily have some of your outs as played (not to mention the villain who is never folding the nut flush draw here if they played say AQss aggro on teh flop.)

Provide the range of hands you put the villain on specifically.. it's easy enouigh to do the math on whether this is a profitable play.

Also, why would yo uask the question and then post this: again, she never plays a set like this?

Also you posted that Well you are making a big assumption here. Did you know the player? there are a few women that play there that play every weekend and are pretty good. Playing a $250 is no change from a $150 as far as I am concerned. If this was a regular to the room... again you are way off. Are you regular enough to know who the regulars are?

CLiffs: You make a HUGE number of assumptions here, ask if it's a good play, then justify it based on what hand she calls you with. Had you whiffed I fully expect you would have ranted about her awful call.

p.s. I Wish I could make you out better from your avatar picture so I could call you down light next time up there.

Pre flop betting would tell me he is im not up against an over pair, and the shove post flop would not tell me im up not up against a set, Im going to label you a bad player bonflizubi because you have wrote so much crap in your analysis and failed to realise this.

Have a nice day

What?

Actually, I really liked your analysis of this hand fluzi.. & prior to reading ur post it was in line with what I was thinking (OMG.. imagine that!?!?! sick thought or what?).
Thanks for taking the time to post it! (& gl in the $5mil Anniv!!!!)

Yup, put me in this category too

Now that you have retaliated, You need to take another look at the hand since what you just said isn't how the hand went down. Preflop betting basically told you nothing regarding an overpair. Yeah you could say its not a monster maybe, but JJ very probable. Plus 2.5 PF is very standard for a lot of people, no matter the holding (especially Negreanu devotees).
Then a check raise after the flop has got to be a wake up call when you are sitting there with 47s, middle pair and a draw to a very weak flush. No way you shove on this in the early stages of the tournament. You made a play at the pot post flop (NOT FAULTING THAT) and it got shoved up your *** - get out and wait for a better spot.

Ok ill explain what, Pre flop the guy with A 10 raises 2.5 BB, the guy with 4s 7s only calls this bet, if he had a premium pair there is no way he would have just called he would have re-raised, if he calls with a premium pair he knows the Big Blind is highly likely to call too for an extra 1.5 BB to see a flop, the last thing a guy wants with a premium pair is to get involved in a 3 way pot with it.

Ok so this explains why the guy with A 10 does not have to worry about being up against an overpair, now to worrying about being up against a set, very short and simple if you are put all in after the flop by a guy with a set you are playing a guy who is an idiot, if he had a set he would want to extract the most money he could from this situation and by shoving all in is not a way he is going to do this.

So, glad i have cleared that up, if the guy who has A 10 is a good player he would not have been worried about a set or an overpair in this situation (unlike mr statto above lol) he would know he was up against exactly what he was up against, which was a flush draw.

And, like i said, a good player would not turn down 2/1 odds when he knows he is favorite to win the hand.

Oh and bonflizubi if you are in the sunday million how abouts you and i return to thisa thread tomorrow and we both publish what position we finish in?

Lol hes so bad hes probably the top tourney player on cardschat. Please mikeg stop posting every single post of yours ive read is complete crap

Please mods Dont lock this thread

I thought this discussion should only go as far as, : OP you spewed

thread boggles my mind


PS people stop overanalysing. If you raise a Tx, she is never folding it to the jam. And it is a woman, women are nits.

Also, why has everybody forgotten that op limped 74

And MikeG is failing too ****ing hard to even comment

Didn't limp. Called raise.

Oh my bad

You need to reread OP (I've had to several times) - you have the players backwards and are answering questions that were not asked. The Hero had 47 and the Villian had AT. The question about the possibility of trips goes to the AT/check raise, not the 47 call/shove.

I lold