re: Poker & Final table of a satellite tournament vs. manic
Ok, I did some simulations.
Its really quite simple.
I just googled ICM calculator, then put in 100 as price for 1st to 5th, then put in the stack sizes.
If for example the opponents has the stack sizes you stated, and you have 20k.
Then the big stack pushes and you call.
You will then have almost 80% chance to win vs ranom hand, plus the risk of someone else actually calling behind you with AA.
So I would say you have around 78% equity.
If you dbl you go from 62.4% to 82.7% chance to win.
And if you loose you are out.
So 78% of the time you increase your chance of qualifying with 20.3%, and 22% of the time you decrease your chances with 62.4%
That means you would have a slightly possitive expectation calling with QQ when down to 20k.
Now if you want to play around with some figures, and see how it turns out I recommend that you download pokerstove for hands calculations, and google ICM calculator for tournament equity.
Last edited by only_bridge : 6th October 2011 at 12:15 PM.