DON Situation

6 people left. Blinds or at 250 and 500 Sbvbb. I am sb with 2000. BB has 2400. Two other stacks or even at 1750 to my rite, other 2 over3000. 2 min before blinds go up. Every body has been aggressive at this point.1 big stack and both small stacks are pushing alot. Im dealt 55. I ended up just folding. My reason for folding is I wasn't the small stack and two others were in danger, I didn't just want to call bringing me to 1750. I didn't want to call becuase ive played with this guy alot and he will usually bet if it is checked to him and wouldn't be comfertable calling a bet.I know a pocket pair is a good heads up hand and thought about pushing but I pushed against him already a few times and since nobody else pushed i thought he might have a hand. What would you have done? I ended up pushing with 88 3 hands later after both small stacks succefully stole the blinds and made me the bottom stack. Got called with AQ and knocked out. All responses are appreciated.TY.

Ship IT! (imo).
I'd assume we have decent fold equity here. I'm shipping alot wider than 55 here fwiw (even if BB assumes this, it's still a fold for them unless they've got a BIG hand < not sure How Big of a hand they'd need as I don't play DoNs and am not familiar with ICM considerations (just know that they'd need a decent hand to call you there with.. 'but' do they know that?).

Hey buster, keep posting HH questions & I'll try to answer them. (although as mentioned, DoNs are far from my specialty).

What position did you push your 88 from?

"3 hands later", > 'HJ'

DON bubble strategy is very similar to satellite bubble strategy. If you're on the bubble as you were here, and are not the shortest stack, it's often common to fold hands as big as QQ and even KK (especially facing action). People tend to tighten way up on the bubble if they have a comfortable ITM stack, because when you have a lock on 1st prize payout no matter your finish position, the risk:reward ratio is much worse than in a regular MTT/SNG -- you don't get anything extra for chipping up, but can lose everything if a ragged ace calls you and hits. So sometimes even KK isn't worth the risk. Others even claim to fold AA in those situations, but I can't say I've ever brought myself to let go of 85% equity like that.

That said, if I'm reading this right, you were 4th stack before posting the SB, and tied 3-way for 5th after posting. The 2 to your right will be getting the blinds in the next couple of hands so if a big stack puts on any pressure, they're likely folding and shortening up even more, so some might argue for a fold here -- you only need one of them to go out. However, with your stack you can't really claim a lock on the win yet, and since you're in a HU situation here against the BB with a similar stack, I think fold equity demands that you shove.

I play a lot of DONs, in fact it's pretty much all I play these days. When stacks are close on the bubble, it's not uncommon to see a lot of stack churn where top stack becomes bottom stack because they just had to play that AQ. Then they're out in the next couple hands because they were trying to play typical tournament strategy as if they're playing for 1st. And I admit, sometimes when my head isn't entirely in the game, I'll do the same and then kick myself for taking an unnecessary risk when I already had the win locked up.

You don't need to play for 1st, you only need to play for 5th (in a 10-man). I play 6-max DONs these days, so 3rd for those. Of course the more chips you have the more secure you can be, but you don't win anything extra for finishing with top stack, so you have to weigh your risk. If you can maintain a 3000+ chip stack then you can't possibly lose no matter what anybody else does (assuming 1500 starting stacks). So with a huge stack, say 4k-5k+, I'll play a lot more hands and call cheap shoves to try and end the game there. But if I don't have a such a healthy buffer, I'll avoid most pre-flop confrontations that I would ordinarily jump at in a regular MTT/SNG. I'd rather let the shorties go after each other or take the big risks to save themselves -- I hate swapping stacks with a shorty just because I felt I had to see a flop and then couldn't get away from the hand or was pot committed.

But there does come a point, like here, where you're out of (or barely in) the money, stack sizes are so close and small, and with antes there's probably only 1-2 orbits left for you, and you're on the BTN or SB. Any pocket pair in that situation is too good to pass up in a case like this. So I would expect to shove here.

Summary: when I have a comfortable ITM stack, I don't gamble much on the bubble. Yes, I've folded KK pre here. OTOH if I'm out of the money, bubble or not, I won't hesitate to leverage fold equity and shove hands that are less than premium, including ragged aces which is a common move in DONs. Fold equity plays such a huge role in DONs, so when you have the opportunity to exploit it, do so because unless you have the runaway stack, DON bubbles can be real nail-biters, more so than in regular tournaments.

4 bbs left, and BB has < 5bbs? If it folded to me in the SB, I'm shoving, no question. And I'm doing it a hell of a lot wider than 55. With most unknowns, I'm shoving any two there.

I had 2000 chips after posting SB. I had a small 250 chip lead on the other two stacks. I was shubbing against this guy quite a bit and was afraid he might not give me credit for a hand & call me down K10+,ace rags, or a pair of his own. Still not sure if I like a shub in this spot. I was hoping a small stack would run into somebody's good hand,get blinded out or both small stacks face eachother with a me or you scenario.

But at these blinds, the 4 of you essentially have the same stack -- and you are super short. 6-handed + no action + 1 left to act = 55 is the NUTS. You have to be proactive at these effective stacks; folding into the money is too unlikely. And at 4bbs after folding -- you are unlikely to see a stronger hand from a good shoving position (e.g. folded around to in SB vs. UTG).

That's why volume is so important in DONs: Yes, you will get called off sometimes, but you are definitely +EV in the long run shoving 55 here on the bubble, and that's what is important.