Deep in big mtt strategy advice needed

Tonight while playing in PS's $3.30+r tourney I found myself doing quite well and ended up going very deep. We started with 6484 people and I went out in 22nd.

I'm happy to have made it that deep but very upset at myself for not at least making the final table. The truth is I screwed up and played bad. I wish I could say I took a bad beat but I played horrible.

It's been a long time since I've gone this deep in a big mtt. For a long time I held on to the 7th spot while we were under 100 people. I did this for awhile then was moved to another table when we were down to about 36 people.

I sat back, breathing in the "flavor" of the table, making notes on my opps and such and found myself going completely card dead and not taking down a pot in 5 orbits. I tried twice to steal from the btn but bb was very aggressive and protected his bb at all costs, even calling an all in shove with Q5 os and flopping 2 pair.

I finally was able to steal 2 orbits in a row from mp2 pos but that was it. I then made a horrible mistake, I convinced myself I was being patient when what I actually was doing was becoming a huge tag fish nit. Major nit really, too much so and of course a couple of the better players picked up on this.

I could see myself making the ft when the following hand happened:
Stacks:
* UTG+1 with 3631802
* MP1 with 1249578
* MP2 with 1521945
* MP3 with 1919272
* CO with 1770966
* BTN with 770307
* SB with 1847726
* BB with 1963852
* UTG with 385518




Blinds: 30000/60000
Site: Pokerstars
* * Dealt to CO:J♠ J♥
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 raises 120000 to 180000
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [180000]
* * BTN raises 584307 to 764307 [ all-in ]
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP2 raises 751638 to 1515945 [ all-in ]
* * 1 players fold.
* * Uncalled bet (751638) returned to MP2
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: 2550252
Flop:
* * 9♣ J♣ 8♥
* * Potsize: 2550252
Turn:
* * 3♣
* * Potsize: 2550252
River:
* * 6♠
Results:
* * MP2 shows a pair of Jacks:
* * [b]A♦ J♦
* * BTN shows a pair of Tens:
* * 10♣ 10♥
* * MP2 collected 1852614 from pot

As you can see, I folded my JJ and would have won. I don't think I quite recovered from that hand, not that it cost me a lot of chips, mentally I mean, I began to question everything too much.

No pots were going unchallenged, so in my defense I really needed to have a decent hand to be in a pot at this table. However, I became too picky on which hands I would play. I called a pfr of 3.5x bb 2x and both times while in pos I folded to a pot sized bet from my opps. Both times I called a LAG (the chip leader) with AQsu and both times folded to a low dry board.

2x I called pfr's from the btn & co with A8su & A9su and checked a flop that provided me with nothing and folded to the cbet when I probably could've taken the pot down if I had led into my opps.

Anyways, my goal is to make ft, not to make it to the next level and I screwed up by being too cautious and becoming a nit.

Any strategy advice about how to play mtt's when you've gone deep, when you're down to the last 3 tables on how to make the ft would be appreciated. Also if you can add strategy on being mostly card dead with a bone thrown in once in a while but would be great.

Thank You!

Doing the right things does not guarantee success in poker either. Not trying to tell you not to shoot for the top, but 22nd in a field of 6400 is an accomplishment, not a failure. Well done, sir.

Yeah that is a great accomplishment. Often deep in tourneys I try to forget about the money and play my best game. I mean not completely forget but it really shouldnt factor into your decision making in these spots because you really want to go to the FT and make the big money.

I guess I didn't convey myself well. This is not a disguised brag for the finish, I've gotten feed back on the hand in ha so that can be ignored.

Forget the examples posted above and let's focus on the main question. I am looking for advice on good strategy during the late stages of a big mtt.

You've been playing for several hours, are down to 5 tables or less and the goal is the final table and hopefully a first place finish. I'm looking for ideas, suggestion or advice on how best to accomplish the goal of making it to the final table.

Just a quick note about the hand. As played, you have to fold. However, I really don't like the smooth call (I read the post in HA). I would think anyone with AK is shipping here and with the original raiser shipping wide, you really don't know where you stand. Furthermore, how do you intend to play the flop here? JJ is not a hand that particularly likes flops. What boards are you calling a cbet on? I think your chances of stacking villain on a board of unders is not all that great. If they have a hand like 99-TT, or A9-AT, you want to get it in pre anyways and I don't want to ever have to fold the best hand this late in a tournament. You stated that this guy gets it in light pre. Take advantage of this and get it in preflop (JJ is a very good holding this late in a tournament).

I may get flamed some because A LOT of people here like to play to cash but you ABSOLUTELY have to be shooting for the top because of the way most payouts are structured. Most tournaments (non small SnGs) are structured so that the top 3-4 spots get the vast majority of the payout. Just to illustrate this point, on a Pokerstars 1000 person tournament, the payout for 3rd is about 15-20x the payout of 20th. Variance reduction is not the way to go. You sacrifice wayyy too much EV.

This means that later in a tournament, you have to take relatively small edges. Early in a tournament, you can pass up relatively small edges assuming you are better than the field because there will be a better opportunity waiting. Later in a tournament, you can't afford to wait nearly as much because a.) the blinds are bigger meaning you have to make more moves and b.) later in a tournament, your opponents are better. Both of these point to have to taking smaller edges because the chances you get an opportunity to get it in more +EV is smaller. Also, getting a larger stack allows you to steal from the timid stacks which raises your overall EV.

I'm not saying to go crazy as at the very minimum, you have to be +EV chip wise and then some, but do consider the payout, and shoot for the top 3-4 places instead of getting lots of cashes. This should help your bottom line over the long run.

I agree about the hand. As played, a definite fold. Preflop I should have pushed him and shoved or folded. The question is: JJ is normally a coin flip at best, with that opp I knew his range was wide so I suppose against an opp like him shoving would have been best.

I forgot about the small edges. It's been awhile since I've gone that deep in a mtt and with the players being better all those small edges will add up.

How do you feel about risks deep in the mtt? I found myself being too much of a nit to take some calculated risks.

The question you should be asking yourself is, "how can I maximize my chances of getting to the final 3-4 in this MTT?" for the reasons mentioned before about the payout structure of large MTTs. This generally requires some adaptation to the people around you and figuring out when to take chances and when not to in order to maximize your chances putting yourself in a scenario where you can chip up.

For example, let's say there are 6-7 nits and 1-2 spewtards with large stacks at your table and I have a medium stack. In this kind of scenario, I will probably take a marginal +EV "shot" at one of the spewtards because I know that if I can double up, I have the potential to dominate a table by stealing a ton from the nits (playing highly exploitative poker) and get to the final table with a big stack. Having a solid stealing strategy is quite profitable when you stumble on nitty tables because there are many people who play to cash and are nitty even after the money bubble bursts trying to climb one payout level higher. These are the tables where you can build huge stacks with relatively small risks when most stacks become short. It is worth the risk to chip up in scenarios like this.

On the contrary, if I am against a bunch of loose passives, then I think I am forced to play more "standard poker" and just outplaying my opponents. In this kind of scenario, taking risks to chip up is much less as compared to before. Note that a lot of this stuff is dependent on your edge against the field. It is important to try to be objective in analyzing your edge and remember that our edge generally becomes smaller as we get shorter relative to the blinds. The general rule of thumb of adaptation is, "play the opposite of your opponents".

Once we get super short (M = 5 or less), I think we take any 55/45 edge and steal shove fairly wide from late positions. It is generally -EV to wait an orbit, lose a quarter of our stack hope for a 65/35 edge that we don't know is coming. If we have three 55/45 "flips", then probability says that we are likely to win all three, one out of 6 times which may seem like it sucks but these are the ones you are going to make a deep run which is what we should be striving for. 55/45 may not sound like much but these small edges do add up.

Try watching some of the larger buyin MTT's play out when it's deep ITM and on the final few tables. It is very, very, very rare that you'll see someone flatcalling a preflop raise (as you mentioned you were doing above). Almost all pots are won prior to the flop... most with a preflop raise then a 3-bet... and occassionally a 4-bet then fold. THey are also often 3-betting light in lieu of the fact that some players opening range will be very wide. In the higher buyins there's also alot of guys who are 4-betting light/bluff, knowing that there's a good chance that their opponent's are 3-betting light(stealing).
In lower buyins you obviously need to adjust your play but personally I'd rarely be flatting raises and instead looking for spots to re-raise &/or shove (depending upon how deep we are obviously.... but if I'm on a stack of between 14-23bb's, my 3-bet will be AI). If I can't raise with it, I usually won't want to just call (unless of course other things comce into play.. ie. stack sizes.. my stack size (ie. if I'm in the blinds and on say a mid pr., I'm more likely to pull a stop n' go then a reraise allin).

Play is obviously table, player & stack-size dependant. Based on this criteria I will make my decisions accordingly (ie. aggress. table, finding it difficult to find spots to steal blinds and on a re-steal-sized stack.. I'm looking for oppurtunities to re-steal... my cards don't have to be great for doing so... my timing does).

Thank you for your response! This has given me something to think about and the latter stuff is good reminders!

I agree and since I had been at that table for over 2 hrs I had plenty of reads on my opps and should have done a better job with my decisions.


TY for the response! Wurly's and yours are exactly the kind of things I'm looking for, I'd like to see more of these types of strategies thought out and played out and debated, it really helps me to think my play out on another level.

Being in seventh with 100 left means nothing. Next time you are in this situation, write down the top 4 and see where their stack is with 25 left. Chances are they will not be in the tournament or closer to the bottom half. The blinds are about to start getting ridiculous for one, and people are going to start catching up to you. Patience is a virtue at this point. Dont worry about your stack and what place you are in for one. Think more about your stack compared to the blinds. Wait for the premiums.....they will come. But if your stack does begin to dwindle (this means less than 10bbs)....at some point you are going to have to be fit or fold and (This means with hands like a8+ and a lot of pp's.) Shoving instead of raising with some marginal hands when in position will do the trick (DO NOT do this in early position or against bigstacks to your left cause someone will call....hopefully when they do you will be ahead or at least a coinflip.) The idea is to get them to fold, not let yourself miss. Get it in early when you know you are ahead when you do have a stack and are playing a flop..........hopefully luck will be on your side. The other night I finished second in a 9000 person tourney and never had the lead until 5 people were left. Most of the time I was somewhere in the middle. If you can do this and keep your stack healthy, the final table should be no problem. Patience, Patience, Patience.

Others have said what I might have. Mostly, you need to play strong and fearlessly when you get a hand. Don't go in if you don't want to raise.

Ther problem I saw with the above hand was that you beat yourself up when the flop came. You tilted yourself. Don't do that. It doesn't matter what would have happened once you fold. It doesn't matter that you could have used those chips. Ignore that hand and let it drop from your consciousness. Another hand is about to be dealt -- be there. Focus on that. And it is not the end of the world if you go out 20th. It is, truly, a very good finish, even if you had started to fantasize about the big prize. Don't pay any attention to the big prize, either. Focus on what's going on NOW.

And remember that you do need some luck in key hands. There is no magic formula that will definitely get you to the final table. Just play your hands as well as you can. But remember: Don't do anything stupid.