Could I have done this differently?

So, I was playing a live tourney yesterday. 50 players, top 7 paid. I made it to the final table and made it past the bubble, I was sitting 6th in chips with about 15k the blinds were 1200/2400 with antes of 200.

I'm in the big blind with AKo... chip leader raises to 8k from middle position and button moves all in for about 30k, small blind - another short stack but bigger than me - shoves too.

I know that the original raiser is gonna fold by the look on his face, the small blind I had been talking to on the break and he was hoping to finish quickly because there was another tournament starting soon so I didn't put him on such a big hand.. the guy on the button I thought might be trying a resteal. At worst I figure I'm up against another AK or in a race against a pocket pair so I decided to try and double up here and shove my chips in.

Like I thought, the original raiser mucks his hand. Button turns over KK and small blind turns over 99 ... oh dear oh dear.

flop comes with a 9 and my tournament is over. At least I doubled my buy in and had a whole lot of fun.

Talking to my friend about this he thought I made a dumb move, that I should have folded and waited for a better spot. What do you guys think? With my stack and the blinds that high ( i think it was only another 5 min til the next level too ) could I afford to pass the AKo and pick another spot?

I think you should've folded especially when 3 people were raising this pot besides u.. With a raise, shove, shove at this point of the tournament you can expect to be up against at least one pocket pair in which case you would be chasing against a made hand.

That was a bad move but at least you got 6th which isnt that bad.. The best you could've hoped for is being against aq.. maybe aj if these guys were playing like fools.. besides that you'd have to assume you would be in pretty bad shape.

I agree with this. If you get it in here, the best you can hope for is that you are up against not one, but two underpairs. If one of them does have AK, you are committing your chips to win half a pot, and have only 4 outs to chase the pair to chop. If one of them has KK or AA you are in terrible shape. AK does a lot better if you are opening with it...preferably in late position.

Yeah but even if I had split that pot with another AK I would have more than doubled my stack (I was in the big blind too so felt the need to fight for it). I knew when I put my chips in that the best situation I could hope for was a race... unfortunately one of the shovers had KK... but he didn't even win the pot, 99 took it down with a set.

I know that most of the value in AK is folding equity, so in that sense I really misplayed my hand, but I had been sitting there watching the blinds and antes eat my stack away and AK were the best 2 cards I had seen in about 8 hands and with the big blind in I already had a significant chunk of my stack invested in the pot, I felt like I didn't have a choice.

I can see why you would make the call, you probably arn't going to get a spot like that the rest of the tourny. I don't feel like doing the math right now, but you are almost getting four to one on the call. That being said, with a raise, a reraise and a call, you would have to think someone has AA or KK, if you are lucky maybe QQ.

So... You are either in a flip or way behind. I assume you have the smallest stack at the table from what you said. So you where right to call, you are getting almost four to one to call, if you win you are in great shape, if you go out, you are in the money. Another spot to get four to one on your money with a better hand like AA or KK probably wont happen. So, I'm ok with calling all in with AK there.


Now, if you weren't the short stack, lets say third or fourth in chips, I would probably wait for another spot, just because you know AA or KK is a likely holding of one of the other players there.

You were 6th in chips, your stack versus blind allowed you at least 2 more round.
AK against 2 KNOWN solid hands ( 8k middle position raise and 30k all-in ) scenarios:
AK against AA and KK, rarely, possibly never happens
AK against any combination of AA, KK, AK, AQs, med pair.

The best scenario which you have fair chance to win is:
AK against an AK/AQ and an AK/AQ
AK against an AK/AQ and a mid pair
AK against 2 mid pair.
provided you MUST catch your A or K in order to WIN.

I think I would have folded. Too much action especially that late in the game. Don't feel bad about it, I have done it as well, but put that one in the old memory bank.....That much action?...look for another spot.

Fold.

I have to agree with the others folding for me would be automatic in this position, unless your reads have these players playing complete junk. If your stack had like 3-5 grand less then your most likely calling no matter what, but before paying for that BB you had enough money for 3 rounds (1200+2400= 3600, 200 * 7 = 1400, 3600+1400=5000, 15k/5k= 3 M). Im assuming that there are still 7 players and your in 6th, otherwise you would probably have said in last with 6 left.

What makes it an even easier fold again is the opportunity for folding to actually make you more money. One of the other small stacks was allin, if the 9 hadn't made his set he's gone and you win more $$$$. Besides the fact that there was a raise, reraise (allin 30k), and an allin call all before your turn, I fold in this situation in my sleep.

Mm.. So you had around 7BB or (M<5) which means you were in a do or die situation.

What was the prize structure... are you familiar with the concept of ICM?

Basically your AK is best headsup... -->

In any event, 2 raises AK.. best case scenario like the guys have said.. either they had a holding of AQ-AJ where you were dominating... or they had lower pairs where it was a race... or KK and AA where you were way behind (and that was the situation here)

The power of A/K is that when you make a big play pre-flop, if someone calls you often have plenty of outs.

In this case, you can triple up on what is often a coin flip. And there's going to be dead money in the pot. And you're getting desperate on chips (your M is 2.2). That makes it a call in my book. In fact, you should have probably shoved somewhere about two rounds back.

Turby's right to consider the payout structure. What's the payout structure? The top heavier it is, the more I lean towards calling.

I'm all in at that point also.

Keeping in mind that you had no compelling reason to believe either had pairs. At that point in most tourneys, big Aces will raise or reraise, and most broadway hands will be in there as well. The situation is not so different than the first few hands of that, or any tourney, when anybody can and might play anything. Except that you are already in the bank, and the triple up + factor makes a call, IMHO, compelling.

Im fine with it. The only had that your devastated by is AA, and with that many chips in the pot (and so few in your stack) I'd just chalk it up to bad timing

Another for folding... even though the guy said he was waiting for the next tournament, you still had the small blind and youre in a good position with your chips.

i might have folded considering you wouldve gained a position with a possibilty ofsomeone getting knocked out, and its better racing with one person than 2, so yeah, i wouldve folded, waited till i was big / small blind and the pot was unraised to shove it in with nearly any 2 cards and prepare to race...

works for me

Wow I left this thread alone for too long...

Lots of good advice here, thanks everyone for giving their 2 cents.

Just to clarify things a little, my reads on the other players in the hand were:

initial raiser - big stack, raising with trash to apply pressure, use his stack and pick up blinds.

over the top all in - AK or med pocket pair (10s to Qs i thought)... he had the button and played back at the big stack to resteal, getting the same read as I did that the big stack was raising light

small blind all in - figured him for trash... his buddy had been over at the table telling him that the bigger tournament was about to start.

So I really thought the only player I was in bad shape against was the button.

Shove pre-flop. Based on chip stack and blinds, this is the right play at this time.

Even knowing one had KK, you had odds to call and go for the ace.

Wasn't shoving, he was calling for his chipstack. But still the right play imo.

gettin 4 to 1 on your money by calling.

just unfortunate you ran into KK....however even if you knew it...like someone said you had to go for the A

So, several have said, you are getting 4 to 1 on your money. Unfortunately that isn't entirely accurate. You are getting 4 to 1 on your chips.

The important note is that by folding you get to watch what you estimated as either a sure loss by the short stack or a coin flip between the short stack and the button.

So just for instance, let's say you do manage to triple up. You still have less than 20bb, and that is ignoring the ante. Doubling or tripling up doesn't actually gain you that much. We will be generous and assume you were 50% to win. The possible results of calling are 50% you are out in 6th and 50% you triple up and the other short stack might be knocked out, but only if the button's hand beats his.

Just for the sake of this argument, we will use Full Tilt's payout structure that pays 7 places:

Finishing Position
1 35.000%
2 21.000%
3 15.000%
4 11.000%
5 8.000%
6 6.000%
7 4.000%

So, using these numbers, and the assumption that you would win 50% if you called and the button would win 50% if you folded, the expected values of each play is as follows. In addition the odds of you being able to make it up another place in each situation must be estimated. For the sake of simplicity, lets say that your odds of increasing another place should you fold are 20% if the SB wins and 10% if the BTN wins, and in the case that you call and win and the BTN beats SB, 35% to move up to 4th, and if you call and win and the BTN loses to the SB, 80% to make 5th and 40% to make 4th after that.

Fold: (0.5 BTN wins * (2% of the Prize pool + (0.10 * 3% of the prize pool) ) + ( 0.5 SB wins * 0.20 * 2% of the prize pool) = EV 1.35% of the prize pool
Call: (0.5 Win * ((0.5 BTN beats SB * (2% of the prize pool + (0.35 making it to 4th* 3% of the prize pool))) + ( 0.5 SB beats BTN * (0.8 make it to 5th * (2% of the prize pool + (0.4 make it to 4th * 3% of the prize pool) )))) = EV 1.4 % of the prize pool



....hmm... ok, looks like I proved myself wrong with the analysis according to those assumptions. I still think the right play was to fold.... because for instance, if you could put the BTN as a 70% favorite to win, then the EV of folding moves up to 1.81% wheras the EV of calling only increases to 1.45%

So, obviously it depends on what you can put your opponents on....just like everything else in poker

I don't know what the book would say to do but we've all been the lowstack in that position. I've always thought that theres no sense in waiting with a winning hand. You have to go AI and pray they show the losing hand.

When you talk about getting four to one on your money, you are taling about chips, not the actual pay out. Pretty standard way of looking at it imo.

So you just proved why calling there is best. With your M being so small you have to call. As I and many others have said, if you are not the SS here and in third or fourth, then folding would be the correct play. But sense you are SS and getting four to one you have to call here. You are not going to get a better spot and end up blinding out. You don't really have much FE if you wait for another place to shove.

Calling is the only option here due to the fact that the OP was SS.

considering that you were short on chips, i would have done the same. it's a very tough decision. good luck

^^^See bold text above.

even thought you were a shortstack, you should have put at least one of them on a big pocket pair. Wait for a better spot next time. Also, if three people were in a big hand, odds are at least one of them will get knocked out. You would then end up moving up in the payouts

You are looking at the small picture, you need to see the big picture!!! And in this case, he still would have been the SS and not moved up a spot in pay!!!

This was a fold situation. You are up against 3 others and the likely hood is that there will be at least one set of pocket pairs out there if not 2. It is also likely that at least one more A and K is going to be out there so your odds of hitting are reduced. I think it was Phil Gordon who said it was better to go into a multi all in hand with mid pocket pairs. A lot of logic in this as proven in this case by the 9 hitting the flop.