Bovada Facebook Challenge Question

Below is the question and my answer. Help me out. Is my reasoning good? Most say fold, some say push all-in and I am in-between.

THIS CHALLENGE IS ON BOVADA'S FACEBOOK PAGE:

"It's wsop Wednesday! Answer the following for your chance to win one of two WSOP qualifier tickets! Two winners will be chosen tomorrow at noon."

THE QUESTION:

"You’re playing a satellite to win a $3K WSOP Prize Package. There are 7 players left with the top 6 getting a package. You’re on the button with 9s9d and have 5BB left. The SB has 3 BB, the BB has 20 BB and the rest of the table has 25 or more BB’s. You close your eyes to think about your move, and when you open them you’re shocked to find out you now have x-ray vision and can see the SB has JcQc and the BB has AhKd. What’s your move?"

MY ANSWER:

I would call so as not to fold SB and then call BB's raise all-in. If BB wins...I also win because my stack is bigger than SB...If SB wins, than I will probably be beating BB which will leave me 4BB. If I win then It's all good, and I cash! My odds of cashing at this point are good if I go to showdown with both blind positions! To recap: if BB wins, I win; if I win I cash; and if SB wins I'm most likely still in it. Right? I only lose if SB beats BB AND BB beats me, which is unlikely because of my pair which also connects to the straight. Right....I like my odds and I get my stack ALL-IN against both BB and SB without folding SB in the process! Folding would be the worse option because I win if BB wins, whether I fold or not. If I fold and SB wins then I'm the short stack just waiting for a hand to get my stack all in. If I get my stack in against BB AND SB then it's two hands against one in my favor.

Again, worse option is to fold here. Many don't consider placement if several hands go to showdown on the bubble, higher placement goes to the larger stack going into the hand....even if the smaller stack has the better hand, if SB loses it's over...I win because of my larger stack! However, I don't want SB to fold hoping that I lose to BB and SB gets the ticket....so, best move...call, let SB defend or shove, let BB squeeze-push, and then call all-in! The trick here is thinking all this up before I tank out! And that's where experience comes into the equation. LOL

Is my reasoning good?

I don't know. I think the small blind is shoving here regardless of what you do. And since he is well behind the BB, I think you fold and let those two fight it out. You hope the BB's AK holds up and you are in the money.

teepack said:

I don't know. I think the small blind is shoving here regardless of what you do. And since he is well behind the BB, I think you fold and let those two fight it out. You hope the BB's AK holds up and you are in the money.

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See, a SB shove would be perfect in this situation. BB would have to call to the short stack shove and if I call behind BB, odds are 5:1 in my favor of cashing or breaking even and 4:2 in my favor of just cashing.

These are the possible outcomes of the three way pot :

(BB frst, SB 2nd, ME 3rd), (BB 1rst, ME 2nd, SB 3rd), (SB 1rst, BB 2nd, ME 3rd), (SB 1rst, ME 2nd, BB 3rd), (ME 1rst, BB 2nd, SB 3rd), and (ME 1rst, SB 2nd, BB 3rd).

Right?

Okay, in light of the way position is determined in a multi-loser showdowns (largest losing stack going into the pot gets highest pay position), I win (or break even) in every one of those outcomes accept (SB 1rst, BB 2nd, ME 3rd) which is the only outcome I lose against!

A high majority of those who answered said fold, so I'm just wondering if I'm missing something here? With 7 players left on the bubble and a 5BB stack, this seems like the best possible position to get my stack in the pot. I don't see it getting better in the next few orbits which is all I'll have left.

Does my X-ray vision continue after this hand?

I fold and pray almost always. I like and think there is validity in your play but switch positions with sb. With the button limping with a 5bb stack being an incredibly shady move and likely calling a shove from the bb, I could find a fold as sb. Ugly spot, great conversation topic.

cjmoles said:

See, a SB shove would be perfect in this situation. BB would have to call to the short stack shove and if I call behind BB, odds are 5:1 in my favor of cashing or breaking even and 4:2 in my favor of just cashing.

These are the possible outcomes of the three way pot :

(BB frst, SB 2nd, ME 3rd), (BB 1rst, ME 2nd, SB 3rd), (SB 1rst, BB 2nd, ME 3rd), (SB 1rst, ME 2nd, BB 3rd), (ME 1rst, BB 2nd, SB 3rd), and (ME 1rst, SB 2nd, BB 3rd).

Right?

Okay, in light of the way position is determined in a multi-loser showdowns (largest losing stack going into the pot gets highest pay position), I win (or break even) in every one of those outcomes accept (SB 1rst, BB 2nd, ME 3rd) which is the only outcome I lose against!

A high majority of those who answered said fold, so I'm just wondering if I'm missing something here? With 7 players left on the bubble and a 5BB stack, this seems like the best possible position to get my stack in the pot. I don't see it getting better in the next few orbits which is all I'll have left.

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So you are saying you would limp into the pot, hope the SB shoves and the BB calls, and then you would call?

I fold and let those two fight it out. Even if the SB wins, he's only going to wind up with 6BB and you and he are still basically in a position to be fighting it out for the final elimination. Plus you still have another 4 hands to go before you have to post the BB. All you need is 1 more person to go out.

Yes, you're 99 is a 51% favorite against his JQ, assuming the BB folds. When the BB jumps in, you are actually a 30% favorite to win, the JQ is a 31% and the AK is about 37%. However, the BB's AK against the QJ is a 60% favorite to win. So your best bet is to let them two fight it out. And if the SB decides not to go, he is now down to 3BB.

teepack said:

So you are saying you would limp into the pot, hope the SB shoves and the BB calls, and then you would call?

I fold and let those two fight it out. Even if the SB wins, he's only going to wind up with 6BB and you and he are still basically in a position to be fighting it out for the final elimination. Plus you still have another 4 hands to go before you have to post the BB. All you need is 1 more person to go out.

Yes, you're 99 is a 51% favorite against his JQ, assuming the BB folds. When the BB jumps in, you are actually a 30% favorite to win, the JQ is a 31% and the AK is about 37%. However, the BB's AK against the QJ is a 60% favorite to win. So your best bet is to let them two fight it out. And if the SB decides not to go, he is now down to 3BB.

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True with the percentages....BUT one thing pokerstove (or any other equity calculator doesn't calculate) is the fact that I win if either my hand wins OR BB's hand wins because highest chip stack going into the pot gets paid the higher cashing position. If AK wins I cash even if QJ's hand beats mine. So, my equity is a combination of AK's and 99's equity...so I'm still hoping AK wins but I'm also throwing my equity in on top of that. And if QJ happens to win, I'm in a super position to take down the side pot and break about even. This all assumes a three way showdown of course. Because I'm in position and I just limped, I have the option of getting out of the way if SB folds and BB pushes or vice versa.

beger80 said:

Does my X-ray vision continue after this hand?

I fold and pray almost always. I like and think there is validity in your play but switch positions with sb. With the button limping with a 5bb stack being an incredibly shady move and likely calling a shove from the bb, I could find a fold as sb. Ugly spot, great conversation topic.

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Yes, that's why I limp instead of push....if SB folds and BB pushes or vice versa, I snap fold instead of flip, preserving a stack that's still ahead of SB slightly. What I'm anticipating is that QJs, being short stacked and defending, will push with such a pretty looking hand, gambling on a little fold equity against my limp ....He don't know what BB has in his hand and my limp is week.

I understand what you are saying, but if it goes down like it probably would, with all 3 players in the pot, you've got basically a 1 in 3 chance that the QJ would win the pot and you would be either eliminated if you lose to AK, or your stack would be down to 4 BB if you beat the AK. So your chip loss would not be that much, but the problem is that now the previous short stack guy is up to 9 BB and you are firmly in last place.

If you win the pot, you would be in the money, so it is definitely tempting. I think either way has merits.

teepack said:

I understand what you are saying, but if it goes down like it probably would, with all 3 players in the pot, you've got basically a 1 in 3 chance that the QJ would win the pot and you would be either eliminated if you lose to AK, or your stack would be down to 4 BB if you beat the AK. So your chip loss would not be that much, but the problem is that now the previous short stack guy is up to 9 BB and you are firmly in last place.

If you win the pot, you would be in the money, so it is definitely tempting. I think either way has merits.

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It's a tricky position....for sure!

AK is still a 2 to 1 favorite against QJ which also makes me a 2 to 1 favorite to cash.

So, if AK holds, I cash whether or not I'm in the pot. My equity is just increased by join the pot with them.

I only lose if QJ beats AK and AK beats me which doesn't include too many boards...QJ straights are mine because of the 9 set, any QJ two pair which don't include an AK are mine....and any QJ board that includes a 9. There are not many boards where QJ beats AK and AK beats 99. By joining the pot my odds are increased greatly!

i think x-ray vision will do more than see just an opponents hand. it can see what deck is holding. lol effin bovada

maybe you can only see the burn card. (disclosure: i am not a scientist)

I think you are underestimating the number of possible outcomes where the QJ will win on a board where the AK still beats 99. QJ is suited so any flush with and A or K on board and its bye bye. Not really sure how to work out all the probabilities here but we know QJ will win 31% of the time so, for arguments sake, lets assume that on 20% of those occasions AK also comes second which means that 6% of the time 99 is out. We know that if you fold and it goes down as it is supposed to then 60% of the time AK will bet QJ and you are golden. We also know that if all 3 of you are in then 99 has 30% and AK has 37% so you are 67% to get the ticket. However to achieve this extra 7% you are running a 6% risk (obviously this is based on my made up numbers) that you are going out completely. The other 25% when QJ wins you are left as the short stack and will in all likelihood end up without the ticket. So my view is that it is not worth taking those risks to gain the extra 7% i.e. fold!

Incidentally what would you all do if you had 99 in this exact situation and didn't know the other hole cards.

Ugly, but I would fold. Why is that by folding you have two chances to make the prize; 1, if the shorter stack loses, 2, if you get a hand next deal and double up to outlast the shorter stack.

So, since calling leaves you in a 3 way pot you must win to survive, I would say fold.