AQs vs AJo

A

alex5207

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Hi there,

I was playing the steps on pokerstars towards the PCA 2014.
I'm at step 2, 5/9 players left (1&2 gets step 3 and 3&4 gets to do same step again) - blinds are 100/200. I'm at button where everyone folded to me, sitting with 3500 stack (2nd biggest) with AQs. I raise 2,5xbb, sb folds and bb goes all in with 2000 chips. I took his range into consideration and concluded that i was probably ahead, so I called, and he shows AJo. Board shows an Ace and a J.

Now, the hand isn't actually the part i want to discuss, since I know that i should've won that one but it's like 65:35.

The thing I was wondering about, is if I should've made that call, when I take into consideration that i'm risiking my big stack, with odds like 65:35, when I could just fold and let the other knock eachother out, while waiting for monsters like AA or KK
 
Jacki Burkhart

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The raise is fine, but then facing a reraise all in, I think I'd fold my AQ right there.

You'll usually be up against a pocket pair like 88+ and be a slight to huge underdog.
You'll often be up against AK and be a big dog.
You'll occasionally be even or ahead against AQ or AJ
and you'll rarely be up against worse...maybe the occasional ATs or KQs
 
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Poker Orifice

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seems fine to me.
Doubt I'm gonna fold here getting 1.7:1 with probably 45%+ vs. their range.

In a spot/HH like this, it'd help a bit more to post all stack sizes of all players on the table, positions of each on the table, & relevant player reads.
 
etherghost

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I'd want to see the flop with AQs but I wouldn't go all in pre-flop with it in this situation. I agree with missjacki on this one.
 
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Raise all in is the most powerful move in poker. Have to respect that every time, and unless you have a monster hand or a big draw you should simply quit from the hand.
 
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alex5207

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I think you guys are misunderstanding my question

Odds wise I was very sure that i had the best hand preflop. My question to you was if it was the right call when you're taking into consideration that I was the 2nd biggest stack and just could've folded myself into a more safe and convienient situation with AA or KK, or same hand where not having to go all-in preflop
 
etherghost

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I think you guys are misunderstanding my question

Odds wise I was very sure that i had the best hand preflop. My question to you was if it was the right call when you're taking into consideration that I was the 2nd biggest stack and just could've folded myself into a more safe and convienient situation with AA or KK, or same hand where not having to go all-in preflop

That's the thing. You didn't know that you were the best hand pre-flop. Statistically, your hand is 7th best pre-flop which, to me, considering the circumstances, is not worth the risk. But that's just my 2 cents. :)
 
Mr Sandbag

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This is completely player-dependent. If you thought s/he was capable of shoving with worse than AQ, then it's not bad, but against an unknown, you're facing a pair and will be flipping for stacks.

BTW, AQs vs AJo is closer to a 3:1 favorite.
 
Akorps

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You probably had correct odds to call according to ICM, I would think?
 
Mr Sandbag

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Actually, let me elaborate more. You not only have to be sure that s/he can shove with worse than AQs, you have to believe that at least 50% of the player's shoving range is worse than AQs.

For example, if his/her range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ, you should fold. But if the range looks more like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ/A10/KQ/KJ/QJ/1010/99/88/77/66/55/44/33/22, call.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Actually, let me elaborate more. You not only have to be sure that s/he can shove with worse than AQs, you have to believe that at least 50% of the player's shoving range is worse than AQs.

For example, if his/her range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ, you should fold. But if the range looks more like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ/A10/KQ/KJ/QJ/1010/99/88/77/66/55/44/33/22, call.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS
basically, for an unknown player, I'm assuming their range is more like 88+, AK,AQ,AJ so I'm either flipping or behind most of their range. It's not enough that you were ahead in this specific instance, you have to be ahead of their RANGE....
 
etherghost

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It's not enough that you were ahead in this specific instance, you have to be ahead of their RANGE....

How does he know he was ahead pre flop? Apart from range, he might actually be behind about 6 hands. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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How does he know he was ahead pre flop? Apart from range, he might actually be behind about 6 hands. Correct me if I'm wrong.

exactly, He cannot know he is ahead preflop. He can estimate a range and see if he is ahead of that range. Against most normal player's ranges I think he would be behind. I think he is being too results oriented and because he turned out to be actually ahead, he is thinking that he KNEW he was ahead....

I think he was lucky that he was ahead preflop, and I think he was unlucky that he lost post flop.

Or, if you don't like the "luck" word: Preflop his call should have been -EV, but it turned out to be +EV....and post flop he was spanked by variance..
 
Mr Sandbag

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There's another factor to consider. OP was on the BTN and the action folded to him, where he raised. If he is doing this often, the BB's range might actually be wider than in other situations (re-steal).
 
Blackfeet888

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That's a tricky one, in any other situation you obviously just make the call but here, ok it just took me to long to work it out and i just timed out, i actually do that sometimes laugh it off and call it autofold anyways i already got it wrong because i put the other guy on smaller a range, due to his re-raise, i would have strategically folded that one myself assuming he had pockets or AK and not a wanting flip anyways, but that's a dead set 50/50 i think and a good thread.
 
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Jacki Burkhart

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There's another factor to consider. OP was on the BTN and the action folded to him, where he raised. If he is doing this often, the BB's range might actually be wider than in other situations (re-steal).

Yes, that's a good point too. We'd need to know a little bit more about the table history to decide if it's likely a resteal attempt.

Even if we think it's a re-steal with something like KJ we're usually only 60% which is good but not great for such a chunk of our stack...
 
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you must pay always A-Q against A-J

considering you could eliminate a guy with a range worse than you and odds 65:35 it was ok to pay, actually if 65% were ocurred you´d never post this
 
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It's so tempting to play AQ suited because it is a hard hand to get in the first place. Being that you were both in late position, I probably call all-in. Normally, I have AQs on the button I usually shove altogether. With only 2 hands left to call, you have to figure you are ahead of the game. AQs is a powerhouse and should be played accordingly. I think I would have played this hand all-out when it was my turn to act.
 
Poker Orifice

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The question here is (as OP stated when they posted the 2nd time).. re: ICM & the payout structure of the STEPS.
I'm not real familiar with 'steps' but I still feel this is still probably a call all day long... I'd be playing for Top2 (realizing you've got two bubble spots). Seems alot of posters aren't taking the payout structure into consideration:confused:

OP, what are the sizes of the stacks on the table?
(I might just be open-shoving pre... depends a bit on history & stack size of other player in the blinds & player reads.
Do ya think villain here would actually assume they might have FE here in this spot?)
 
DaBrowner

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Maybe you could have raised only 2.5 to 3x's and been able to fold your hand if BB shoves (if you felt from previous experience from playing with the person you were beat), BB only has 2000 so most likely he is looking for a spot to shove. What was your thoughts on raising 5x's?
 
Mr Sandbag

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The question here is (as OP stated when they posted the 2nd time).. re: ICM & the payout structure of the STEPS.
I'm not real familiar with 'steps' but I still feel this is still probably a call all day long... I'd be playing for Top2 (realizing you've got two bubble spots). Seems alot of posters aren't taking the payout structure into consideration:confused:

OP, what are the sizes of the stacks on the table?
(I might just be open-shoving pre... depends a bit on history & stack size of other player in the blinds & player reads.
Do ya think villain here would actually assume they might have FE here in this spot?)

Good point. I'm not much of a tourney player, so I'm usually not considering ICM. But I still think it depends on history. If villain is a big nit who has been folding the entire time and is suddenly shoving, AQs is likely a massive underdog.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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It's because of ICM that I'm inclined to fold.

We have good chips now, and will continue to have a nice stack if we fold. If we are a good player, we can finder better spots. And ICM strategies always favors the shover not the caller.

In fact, if you were planning to call his shove anyways, probably better to just shove yourself. For me, In this spot I'd probably just make my standard raise then fold to his shove , unless I had reason to believe I crush his range...
 
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exactly, He cannot know he is ahead preflop. He can estimate a range and see if he is ahead of that range. Against most normal player's ranges I think he would be behind. I think he is being too results oriented and because he turned out to be actually ahead, he is thinking that he KNEW he was ahead....

I think he was lucky that he was ahead preflop, and I think he was unlucky that he lost post flop.

Or, if you don't like the "luck" word: Preflop his call should have been -EV, but it turned out to be +EV....and post flop he was spanked by variance..

Well, the reason for me being so sure that I was ahead preflop (and no i didn't conclude that after seeing his hand) was that he was a LAG player who shoved one or two time with hands like A9o

There's another factor to consider. OP was on the BTN and the action folded to him, where he raised. If he is doing this often, the BB's range might actually be wider than in other situations (re-steal).

Exactly, he re-stole my blinds a couple of times and never folded to steal-attempt. Seeing him 3betting me wasn't making me very scared about 4bet-shove with a hand like AQs

Yes, that's a good point too. We'd need to know a little bit more about the table history to decide if it's likely a resteal attempt.

Even if we think it's a re-steal with something like KJ we're usually only 60% which is good but not great for such a chunk of our stack...

The table history regarding the villain was as written above (in this thread) he was kind of LAG (Shoved A9 not being severly shortstacked), and generally had a very hard time folding to steal and re-steal attempts

It's so tempting to play AQ suited because it is a hard hand to get in the first place. Being that you were both in late position, I probably call all-in. Normally, I have AQs on the button I usually shove altogether. With only 2 hands left to call, you have to figure you are ahead of the game. AQs is a powerhouse and should be played accordingly. I think I would have played this hand all-out when it was my turn to act.

Interesting point, just shoving instantly. That might have been more affective - not very sure since he was a true "never lay down marginal hands+ kind of guy"

It's because of ICM that I'm inclined to fold.

We have good chips now, and will continue to have a nice stack if we fold. If we are a good player, we can finder better spots. And ICM strategies always favors the shover not the caller.

In fact, if you were planning to call his shove anyways, probably better to just shove yourself. For me, In this spot I'd probably just make my standard raise then fold to his shove , unless I had reason to believe I crush his range...

Exactly was I was wondering about afterwards, the ICM - But I wasn't a huge big stack, and with a fairly shorthanded table and with the blinds not being useless anymore, who knows when i was going to get that kind of hand again. The blinds might've made me mid stack size, before getting anything as playable as AQs

The question here is (as OP stated when they posted the 2nd time).. re: ICM & the payout structure of the STEPS.
I'm not real familiar with 'steps' but I still feel this is still probably a call all day long... I'd be playing for Top2 (realizing you've got two bubble spots). Seems alot of posters aren't taking the payout structure into consideration:confused:

OP, what are the sizes of the stacks on the table?
(I might just be open-shoving pre... depends a bit on history & stack size of other player in the blinds & player reads.
Do ya think villain here would actually assume they might have FE here in this spot?)

Stack sizes

Hero: 2nd biggest (3500)
Villain: 4 biggest (2000)
x: Biggest: (3900)
y:3rd biggest (2600)
X: smallest (1495)

not really, I just think villain was very certain that i would fold to a shove, and as I saw him shove with A9o etc. i couldn't flush my AQs down the toilet
 
Mr Sandbag

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Well, the reason for me being so sure that I was ahead preflop (and no i didn't conclude that after seeing his hand) was that he was a LAG player who shoved one or two time with hands like A9o



Exactly, he re-stole my blinds a couple of times and never folded to steal-attempt. Seeing him 3betting me wasn't making me very scared about 4bet-shove with a hand like AQs



The table history regarding the villain was as written above (in this thread) he was kind of LAG (Shoved A9 not being severly shortstacked), and generally had a very hard time folding to steal and re-steal attempts



Interesting point, just shoving instantly. That might have been more affective - not very sure since he was a true "never lay down marginal hands+ kind of guy"



Exactly was I was wondering about afterwards, the ICM - But I wasn't a huge big stack, and with a fairly shorthanded table and with the blinds not being useless anymore, who knows when i was going to get that kind of hand again. The blinds might've made me mid stack size, before getting anything as playable as AQs



Stack sizes

Hero: 2nd biggest (3500)
Villain: 4 biggest (2000)
x: Biggest: (3900)
y:3rd biggest (2600)
X: smallest (1495)

not really, I just think villain was very certain that i would fold to a shove, and as I saw him shove with A9o etc. i couldn't flush my AQs down the toilet

If he had shoved previously with A9o and had a re-steal history, then absolutely you call. His range is very wide and hands that beat AQ are only the very top of it.

Nice hand.
 
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