Any Thoughts on This One?

I’m in a live $210 buy in deep stack weekly event with $30K starting stacks and 30 minute levels at my local casino.

There were 82 entrants in the tournament and we were down to the final 10 with 9 getting paid. We agreed to each pay the bubble $20; so really, the bubble had effectively already burst. The structure of this event really showed up at the final table and we played with 10 for at least 90 minutes. There were a few stacks around $100K, maybe a little less, but the average stack was $250K with the chip leader at about $400K to $420K – I had about $300K.

I wasn’t getting very many hands, and when I did get something I might consider playing someone would move all-in before my action and I’d have to fold. As always, it was tough to find spots.

One player in particular, who I’ve played with many times before, just kept going all-in. He would call pre-flop and shove the flop (he also open shoved, or 3-bet shoved several times as well); he got called twice and one both times his hand was a mere piece of the flop that was good once and bad once. The bottom line is that it was pretty transparent and he was never very strong; this tactic and playing style is more of an online thing in my experience, but I have seen it live several times before and don’t have a huge problem with it – I think he misuses this tactic but he’s playing to win.

I had been forced to continually fold for the majority of two levels and with blinds at $5K/$10K/$1K it didn’t take long for that to have a drastic effect on my stack; before I knew it I was sitting on just over $200K having lost 1/3 of my stack to the blinds and antes. From UTG +1 I found and raised to $24K (2.25X plus an ante). Everyone folded around to Mr. All-In in the BB who flat calls with about $150K back.

Pot: $68,000

Flop:

From the BB my foe moves all-in just like he had done several times before. Additionally, there were some physical tells in this situation as well. When he moved all-in he pounded his stack down in the middle of the table, grunted really loud, and then stared right at me while leaning out across the table. Now some of this is just his persona, he is a big guy and a little scruffy, redneck type guy, nonetheless there were some clear physical tells here.

Now normally, I snap call here. We all should know that his physical actions are unlikely to be a ploy and scream weakness. But he obviously has a piece of this board so we have to figure out what “weak” really means. First he called pre-flop, so it would be pretty easy to put an ace in his range. However, if that were the case why would he shove the flop? So then I started considering other possibilities as well, maybe K 9 or something like 10 10. I wanted to call so bad but had to let it go, I think the largest part of his range has me crushed, so I folded and he didn’t show.

Personally, I think he had a weak ace, just from years of playing with this guy. He’s not good at all, yet I have seen him at more than a few final tables. A weak ace adds up here, this is exactly how this guy plays, no consideration is given to his opponent’s hand, what if I had A K; but that thought never entered his obviously limited mind. But there is that chance that my queens were best; I am borderline haunted by this one; does anyone have any thoughts?

This was a critical hand and took me well below $200K when I folded. Then the blinds went up to $6000/$12000/$2000 and after I went through the blinds I was left with about 14BB. In the time in between both the guy that killed my queens and another player were busted, leaving eight players. It was then that I found from early position and open shoved to be called by from the BB to end my day in eighth place. So that QQ hand was critical, the hand of my tournament, and I just wonder if I made the right move! Thoughts?

bad play.
if he had something he would reraise you. he just call. in my opinion it was a bluff.
he tought you have a small pair. You should have call that hand.

It was a soul read time...sometimes you call sometimes you fold. I think if your going for the win then you have to call more often in that situation.

Well if that player was really as bad as you stated than I personally don't believe they would open jam with trip aces for the simple fact that they would expect you to have an ace unless they had A9, in which case that would make no sense at all because they are giving you a way out (giving you a reason to find a fold here), so by thinking like this they wouldn't possibly jam trips unless they thought you thought they wouldn't jam trips and are in-deed jamming trips to trick you into making a mistake..


Yet because you stated he has a "Limited mind", his thinking wouldn't be that deep, thus leading me to see no reason why as to you could potentially find a fold in that case (besides the money factoring in to your reasoning)

Although, I'm in peace with the fold.

Here's my only problem, first he "flats you sitting in BB " and then shoves on the flop. With no draws and agreeing that weak players would shove with a weak A, but seems to me like a single 9 with K, Q, J or even, T. He believes that you have small pair than that and jams. Its one hand I wouldn't have minded calling his shove with esp on that flop.

naruto_miu said:

Well if that player was really as bad as you stated than I personally don't believe they would open jam with trip aces for the simple fact that they would expect you to have an ace unless they had A9, in which case that would make no sense at all because they are giving you a way out (giving you a reason to find a fold here), so by thinking like this they wouldn't possibly jam trips unless they thought you thought they wouldn't jam trips and are in-deed jamming trips to trick you into making a mistake..

Yet because you stated he has a "Limited mind", his thinking wouldn't be that deep, thus leading me to see no reason why as to you could potentially find a fold in that case (besides the money factoring in to your reasoning)

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AviCKter said:

Although, I'm in peace with the fold.

Here's my only problem, first he "flats you sitting in BB " and then shoves on the flop. With no draws and agreeing that weak players would shove with a weak A, but seems to me like a single 9 with K, Q, J or even, T. He believes that you have small pair than that and jams. Its one hand I wouldn't have minded calling his shove with esp on that flop.

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Yeah, this is exactly the problem – why would he jam trips? But this adds up for this player, not only will he call with any ace but he gives no consideration to your hand or how to extract value from his hand. Let’s say he did have a weak ace, the only hand that could reasonably call him would be a bigger ace – that’s what I meant by the limited mind thing – what’s he even thinking?

I’ve been going back and forth on this one for days now – I wish he would have shown just to put my mind at ease one way or the other, but….

It’s easy for me to say I should have called now knowing how critical that hand was, eighth place was $600; if I had called and lost with QQ I still would have had 5BB and maybe made something of it but still would have got $200 for 10th, so I have to agree with this statement more and more:

steveiam said:

It was a soul read time...sometimes you call sometimes you fold. I think if your going for the win then you have to call more often in that situation.

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I think I should have called, win or lose. Really, I’m not sure why I didn’t – the physical tells I cited were enough to make this call by themselves, and he’s not capable of faking those either. But I talked myself into folding here because I know how he plays and know that A2 was in his call/shove range. Like I said I am haunted by this one but I think a call is right here – wish I had!

ssbn743 said:

Yeah, this is exactly the problem – why would he jam trips? But this adds up for this player, not only will he call with any ace but he gives no consideration to your hand or how to extract value from his hand. Let’s say he did have a weak ace, the only hand that could reasonably call him would be a bigger ace – that’s what I meant by the limited mind thing – what’s he even thinking?

I’ve been going back and forth on this one for days now – I wish he would have shown just to put my mind at ease one way or the other, but….

It’s easy for me to say I should have called now knowing how critical that hand was, eighth place was $600; if I had called and lost with QQ I still would have had 5BB and maybe made something of it but still would have got $200 for 10th, so I have to agree with this statement more and more:



I think I should have called, win or lose. Really, I’m not sure why I didn’t – the physical tells I cited were enough to make this call by themselves, and he’s not capable of faking those either. But I talked myself into folding here because I know how he plays and know that A2 was in his call/shove range. Like I said I am haunted by this one but I think a call is right here – wish I had!

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All you can do is learn from the experience and next time the same situation arises you will know what to do. There is always more than one answer to any situation I always tend to go with my gut feeling when playing live and generally I make the right decision.

You should be careful about calling bluffs for your entire stack. Even if you were 50% sure that you had him beat it would still be a bad call. Especially on the bubble.

WhiteFang13 said:

You should be careful about calling bluffs for your entire stack. Even if you were 50% sure that you had him beat it would still be a bad call. Especially on the bubble.

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Actually the op had stated that each player agreed to pitch in $20 for the bubble boy, thus meaning the bubble effectively had burst already.

If that was the case than that would have to change the game plan up, and even assuming the bubble hadn't burst, this player was more than likely aggressive enough to use that to actual build his chip stack by constantly and continuously putting pressure on players that wanted/needed the cash..

So if your pretty sure about this, I mean especially if the money isn't all the important when factoring in your decisions you'd need to make that call (Atleast in my honest opinion)

ssbn743 said:

.
One player in particular, who I’ve played with many times before, just kept going all-in. He would call pre-flop and shove the flop ....... he got called twice and one both times his hand was a mere piece of the flop that was good once and bad once. The bottom line is that it was pretty transparent and he was never very strong; this tactic and playing style is more of an online thing in my experience, but I have seen it live several times before and don’t have a huge problem with it – I think he misuses this tactic but he’s playing to win.

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more of an online thing? huh? Do you find players calling OOP & donk-shoving allin on flops often online? (vs. live?)
{my personal experience with low buyin live mtt play is that there are ALOT of fishy/clueless players in them, ie. like player you've described. ie. older donks who have terrible bet-sizing & then jam the river praying for folds completely oblivious to villain's range/stack size, etc.
You think he misuses this tactic but he's playing to win ....
How do ya figure he's 'playing to win' when he's losing value &/or getting called by hands that crush him?

fwiw, I'm never folding there in that spot. If he has the Ace 'nh' 'gg'

I think you should have called. You were the raiser and I doubt he goes all-in to you holding an ace in his hand. If anything he check-raises all in. With the info you have given about his play I just don't see him holding an ace.

Since he kept shoving, I would have flat called pre flop with the Queens, let him shove, then call. That would have made it easy.

dd_decker said:

Since he kept shoving, I would have flat called pre flop with the Queens, let him shove, then call. That would have made it easy.

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lol what? Could you plz explain this too me

I think you should have called, did he have a bigger stack than you? if the answer was no, I would have certainly made a call, considering the information we have on him. It was a chance to make a big step and go for the best prices

Poker Orifice said:

more of an online thing? huh? Do you find players calling OOP & donk-shoving allin on flops often online? (vs. live?)

{my personal experience with low buyin live mtt play is that there are ALOT of fishy/clueless players in them, ie. like player you've described. ie. older donks who have terrible bet-sizing & then jam the river praying for folds completely oblivious to villain's range/stack size, etc.

You think he misuses this tactic but he's playing to win ....

How do ya figure he's 'playing to win' when he's losing value &/or getting called by hands that crush him?

fwiw, I'm never folding there in that spot. If he has the Ace 'nh' 'gg'

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I was actually referencing the Scott Fishman strategy of 2005-2006ish (I don’t know what else to call it – it certainly wasn’t only Scott Fishman, it was just in his book that I was first introduced to it) where he advises all-in or fold decisions, regardless of stack sizes, near bubble points in a tournament. The rational being win or die trying!

I admit that I have used that tactic with some success in the past as well; it’s just that I don’t typically see it live; usually it’s strictly an online type strategy. But I know exactly what he’s doing – there were other hands that I didn’t included in the post that clearly indicated he misread a few chapters in the Fishman book and that’s why I think he misuses it.

Now the flat pre-flop/shove flop thing does not fall into the above mentioned category, obviously. Clearly this was not optimal for nearly any hand he held short of A9, maybe not even that. Which is one reason that I should have called right there, his line doesn’t make any sense. But I didn’t and that’s what this post is about.

Really I can’t come up with a reason why I folded, yet I did….sigh!

dd_decker said:

Since he kept shoving, I would have flat called pre flop with the Queens, let him shove, then call. That would have made it easy.

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Yeah, easy to get put in a really bad spot!

I'm not 100% certain but I think he's hoping for a call here. Audible breathing in the form of grunting and a confrontational nature signals not minding action...opposite of strong means weak in this spot...on a board of rags I might think a draw but here I don't feel that way...shoulda went all in preflop though

well if hes used this tactic a number of times, the call/shove tactic, it makes sense for him to shove there with a wide range of cards if he thinks he can get you to fold, unless you have an ace and your tournament life is on the line its very difficult to call, of course its possible he was lucky and had an ace but i think its a definite call here, the times he doesn't have an ace greatly outweigh the times he does i think

floridapoker said:

I'm not 100% certain but I think he's hoping for a call here. Audible breathing in the form of grunting and a confrontational nature signals not minding action...opposite of strong means weak in this spot...on a board of rags I might think a draw but here I don't feel that way...shoulda went all in preflop though

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First, eye contact and confrontation means weakness; remember that a player that has a strong hand will not want to do anything, anything that might stop your call. I guess his tactics worked this time because I had a mental breakdown and didn’t make the play I should have made but there’s no way he did that on purpose -and I was apparently stuck in the Twilight Zone.

The main problem I have with a fold is that the math doesn’t support it; let’s go through it right now.

Now we’re pretty confident that we have his hand narrowed down to one of two ranges, either he has an ace or he doesn’t. When he doesn’t he still has a piece, I’m going to say at least 1 pair, which may also be a wired pair, but one pair nonetheless. So let’s run the numbers:

The pot is $68,000 on the flop. Using the 4/2 rule creates the following percentages.

1. If he has an ace, my outs are reduced to exactly 2 with no backdoor anything.
a. This gives me 8% to win and gives my opponent 92% equity to win.

2. If he doesn’t have an ace I am almost certainly ahead. I will just assume he has one pair less than my queens, and that’s pretty fair and accurate assumption.
a. This means he will win 8% of the time giving my hand 92% win equity.

First let’s deal with the Ace scenario:

3. The pot size when he shoves his ~$150K stack comes to the following: 150K/$368K or 40% pot odds.
a. If I call here and win, I win $368K, 8% of the time making the play worth $29,400 over time.
b. If I call here and lose, I lose $150K, 92% of the time making the play cost me $138K over time.
c. Therefore, this play comes out to a -$108,600 –EV play.

Next let’s deal with the non-Ace scenario:

4. The pot size when he shoves his ~$150K stack comes to the following $150K/$368K or 40% pot odds.
a. So if I call here and win, I win $368K, 92% of the time making the play worth $338,560 over time.
b. If I call here and manage to lose, I lose $150K, 8% of the time making the play cost me $12,000 over time.
c. Therefore, this play comes out to a +$326,560 +EV play.

Adding scenarios together makes the call easy and creates a $217,960 +EV.

I just wish I had the ability to do this at the table to this degree of accuracy – yet even still if you know your opponent has an ace you should still fold; but man, I really wish I had called – it was a coin flip for massive expected value.