Why min raising with marginal hands is bad

yea i would have to agree that min raising with a marginal hand is hardly ever a good play

he pretty much left himself pot commited by minraising, if he was raising he might as well have pushed

Bad luck here. I've been on both sides a few times, each time promising myself never ever let BB to play without calling at least 2x big blinds, if I was to play that hand too. Once in a while this results in a disaster, like this one.
But then there is a question - what was the correct play here? KQ unsuited is not a dream hand, and his stack would keep him in for 4 rounds at most, so the end is near. Imo not enough strenght to go all-in preflop, and somehow hard to fold minding small stack. What to do?

Sorry but this call with 3To is just downright awful and if you're going to call a minraise KQ made a great play imo. If he shoves you don't make a mistake as you fold the worst hand while minraises gets you to make a mistake by calling. You just got super-lucky here and got one of the rare flops where you take his money. The other ~95% you fold and he gets an extra 1/8 of your entire stack.

For one thing, I knew that he was not particularly strong because I'd seen numerous previous min raises followed by folds to aggression. Furthermore, it seemed like they only bet when they had something so even a shove wasn't given. When I think someone is min raising with a weak hand and are capable of folding them, I will almost always call. If I feel like it's a trap, then yes I will fold. But yes, I do like to make a lot of unconventional plays so feel free to criticize

But the point of the post isn't my play. This min raise was great...? This min raise is from early position meaning that if you get reraised, what do you do? Are you min raising with the intention of folding it to a reraise? If not, then why not just shove in the first place? If you're holding... say AA-JJ, then I don't mind this min raise at all.

Let's take another situation. Let's say someone calls, you see a flop but miss it and get shoved on. Do you call?

The only situation I see this play being good is a.) if everyone folds to it or b.) someone calls and you have the best hand after the flop (or I guess if both players miss is fine too though I can imagine being called with nothing...)

First off KQ in this spot is not a weak hand. He's 8 BBs deep and should be insta-stacking here. And speaking of weak hands, you have T3o.
If he can find a way to get T3o to call it then yes the minraise is great imo.
snap call and look to be ahead a lot of the time.
Because if he shoves you fold T3o, if he minraises you call and he makes money over the long-term.
This is the entire point, if you minraise monsters and shove marginal hands people catch on. If you minraise all of it, people will do stupid shit like call with T3o and that is massively +ev.
Depends on opponent and flop texture, but with overs most of the time yes, because most hands that hit the flop would check there waiting for a cbet and we have outs if they do have a hand.
Well when you face hands like T3o it will miss quite a bit. What about you when the flop comes J83r. Are you stacking off? He can put pressure knowing he probably has at least 6 outs if he's not already ahead meanwhile you have bottom pair.

The problem is you have 8 BBs left. One's already in the middle and you put a 2nd in preflop with T3o. He may not have a great hand but his range certainly has T3o crushed. The way people make money is when opponents make mistakes. You're not winning that BB back enough to justify calling preflop, thus made a mistake here. His minraise induced a mistake, making it a good play.

thread /

KQ is a monster with 5 hands still to go? I certainly wouldn't think so. It's down to any ace and flips against pockets? I can't possible snap call and think I'm ahead most of the time. What hands shove on you that you are ahead of? KJ or QJ? I don't mind a shove here but I think min raise is terrible unless you're disguising it as a very strong hand which was clearly not the case here in my opinion.

As I said, the play I made is because they have a decent chance of folding if they miss the flop. My plan when I made the call was to shove if I liked the texture of the flop. This person was tight and I expect them to fold unless they hit. I checked because I flopped a monster. You say I wouldn't win my bb back enough. I certainly think I would in this situation.

You say T3 is likely to miss. KQ is almost as likely to miss also (except the occasional straight draw). Let's say they have overs on a J83 flop. If I had hit a pair, they have 25% chance of winning the hand. They're getting 2:1 for their money to call a shove so they have to mix in a moderate probability that they are facing a bluff to justify calling. Yes, they have odds to call if against an A high bluff but they're still down.

Also, where are you getting my 8bb from? 5460 / 300 = about 18 while he has 1760 / 300 = about 6. Oh, and sorry for this post probably being hard to read. I don't know how to make multiple quotes like you did.

biggest thing is he's 8 BBs deep. At that point he should be shoving any pair and probably most broadway.


So that means you're shoving lots of K and Q-high flops in which case he snaps you off and you lose your stack. What flops would you like the texture of?
But you're not stacking a J83 flop and if you do you're also stacking a Q83 flop which is bad. They can stack any K or Q-high flop. You don't have the luxury of stacking any pair.
Well you're in the SB here right? The HH converter is kinda bad but 2410/300=little over 8. Either way though all that matters is effective stack. He only has about 6 so that's even worse. When you win a stack you only win an extra 4 BBs so that means even if you stack him every time you win the hand you have to do it 25% of the time to break even. That's not happening.

Teach me how to make multiple quotes like that...?

As I said before, I have nothing against a shove here. As a matter of fact, it is probably the play I would make given no further information.

He's MP1 = about 6 BB and I'm BB about 18 BB. In my opinion, this is better. I am more willing to make this move because if I get caught, I still have 12BB. I am not trying to stack them, just steal their min raise.

Also, I would never make this move in the SB with BB still to act. If I were to make a move, I would shove over the top but here but I would need a hand in because they have too much incentive to call. The reason I wait until the flop is because post flop, odds are very much changed.

I would not shove two face cards but yes, if the flop came Q 7 3, i would get stacked. However, because you mentioned that KQ has outs against a board of unders that the opponent pair'd (which is about 25%), I'll mention that I have outs which amount to about 20% in this situation.

The question of which flops I would shove is actually a very good point. I need to do a little studying on the probability of seeing a flop I like is. Thanks

I hit reply to your post. It starts out with a [qote=WurlyQ;1065742] although quote is actually spelled right. When I want to stop the quote I insert a [/quote] tag and then I just copy+paste the original bracket thingy whenever I want to start the new quote again.

I agree I like a shove more, but the point here is that the effective stacks, thus the max you win/lose, are 6 BBs. That's the number you need to use when calculating odds/implied odds. 1/2 BB is already in the middle so you are calling off 1.5 BBs with T3o in the hopes of hitting a miracle flop (like this one) and taking another 4 BBs or else just taking the blinds. It's just generally not a very profitable move calling with trash hands without much money behind to win even when you do flop a monster as in the example.
hmm maybe the converter messed it up, but it shows you being dealt into the small blind. So I guess my math in the last example was wrong you have 1 in and need to put in 1 to win 4, still not good enough though. And postflop the odds are changed, but you have no idea what he has. He could have AA and your pair isn't good or if you flop a pair you could have the best hand. Again you can't know. K83r/A83r look exactly the same to you in terms of board texture but one has you winning and the other has you beat.
that's true, you'll have 5 when opponent usually has 6, but your scenario sometimes when you push he'll be the favorite as well. Basically when he hits, he's always the favorite, when you hit you're sometimes drawing to 5 (or less) outs.

np and I'm not trying to be mean here I'm just trying to explain that I just don't think calling with a hand like T3o is the right answer to a minraise, especially if you're not sure how you're going to react based on the flop.

Ohhh thanks. Actually quite simple. Feel a little stupid for failing to pick that up

There's 1050 in the pot and I need to call 300 to see the flop and my downside risk is losing 1450 total (1150 after I make this call). Those are pretty good odds in my mind.

Also, as stated previously, part of making this play is that I thought he was a.) relatively weak and holding a moderate hand (sorry, I still don't think KQ is a monster in this situation) and b.) he was capable of folding if he missed. As stated previously, if I think this is a trap, then I will always fold.

As stated previously, I know exactly what I'm doing post flop: shoving if I like the texture of the board. The unknown here that I need to do a little math on is how often I'll see a flop that I like is. I need to go to work now but I'll do the math when I get home.

I am going to make some assumptions to simplify the analysis a bit: have two unpaired nonface cards, up against 2 unpaired face cards and they fold if they miss (I relax this assumption at the end). Also, I'm going to treat hands as either hit or miss.

Okay here goes the math:

Probability of 0 face cards on the flop: ((48-14)/48)^3 = 35.5%

Probability of 1 face card on the flop: ((48-14)/48)^2*14/48*3 = 43.9%

Probability of more than 1 face card on the flop: 1- 35.5% - 43.9% = 20.6%

0 face card flop: 35.5%
I shove, they fold = +1050@35.5%

1 face card flop: 43.9%
If they hold 2 face cards and there is 1 face card on the flop there are 84 combinations of hands they could have (going to assume an A flopped for illustration purposes but same concept applies with any face card):
AK*12+AQ*12+AJ*12+KQ*16+KJ*16+QJ*16 = 84
They hit 36 of these hands so hit probability = 36/84 = 42.9%
Miss probability = 1- 42.9% = 57.1%
I shove, they fold = +1050@25.1% (43.9%*57.1% = 25.1%)

To simplify the analysis, I am going to give myself a 10% chance to win a hand where they hit their pair.
I shove, they call with a pair and I lose = -1450@16.9% (43.9%*42.9%*.9 = 16.9%)
I shove, they call with a pair and I win = +2200@1.9% (43.9%*42.9%*.1 = 1.9%)

2 or more face card flop: 20.5%
I check fold = -300@20.5%


EV = 1050*.355 + 1050*.251 + (-1450)*.169 + 2200*.019 + (-300)*.205 = 371.55

EV of +371.55 with downside risk of -1450 seems pretty good to me.

I'm not going to show the math here but if we relax the assumption that they fold and change it to 50% call when they miss, EV becomes +30 which is pretty much break even. Thus, I am giving myself decent room for error in this situation.

Obviously you have to have a decent read on your opponent to make this play but hey, what's the fun in playing poker if you only play your own cards?

Your math misses the times they have pairs. Gotta go now but I'll look at the math later, I do definitely like looking at this kind of thing (unconventional plays), but I'm still not quite convinced that you can do this profitably. There's just not enough room and I still think he calls a lot of flops when he misses that you miss as well. I'll work it out, seems like pokerazor would be good for this kind of thing.

Hahaha, gotta make life tough on me don't you? I do state my assumptions at the beginning so yes, I do ignore the pair possibilities as well as the calling with nothing possibilities though if you ignore the pair possibilities, the break even call with nothing % is a little more than 50% as stated toward the end.

I will admit that now that I reflect on this hand, if this person is minraising here, I can actually see them holding something like 22-99 despite how bad I would think this play is. I'll look into this situation a little more tomorrow but as long as the call with nothing probabilities are low, I think a mix of 22-99 into the hand range won't alter the odds enough to make this -EV.

Do remember that this is all based on a read on my opponent. You say that this opponent would call a lot of flops that they miss but what is your basis for this? I have seen this person min raise fold several times before as well as make larger raises so my read is that a.) they are capable of folding and b.) they are extremely tight and will fold if they miss the flop. I am not saying this situation is widely applicable. Almost all the circumstances have to be in place as well as having a decent read on your opponent for this to work.

You seem to like calling with nothing here a lot which I don't understand. If they are facing an all in bet with nothing and getting only 2:1 for their money, it requires approximately a 20% chance of me bluffing without an A for this to be +EV. I don't mind a shove even if KQ misses the board but definitely not a call.

I know I call a lot in this situation and here's why:

Not that you're an idiot, but a lot of idiots take that line. Of course they don't think it through like you are, they just think "omg I missed the flop make him fold ALLLLLLLLLIN". But the bigger thing is that most people don't lead shove when they hit a flop. Obviously I'd rather have A high because I think people may do this with AK a fair bit, but most of the time it's overcards/draws that hands like KQ are ahead of. And as mentioned when it is a hand, since most people definitely don't lead shove with sets here, we usually have 6 outs to win still. So basically I believe the average player in your position has a bluffing frequency of >20%, so I think a call is good. Anyway still haven't worked out the exact math of what I believe is the case, but will do that sometime when I'm actually awake and didn't just wake up .

i agree with zachvac for the most part hear...i do not like min raises myself, but in this case it worked for him...and yes 103o is a horrible call

The thing here is that a lead shove is a play that makes sense here. If I hit top pair or middle pair, I am definitely not letting them see another card for free so if indeed I had hit top pair, say a flop of T62, would I check? Clearly not unless I was fairly certain my opponent would c-bet with nothing.

Also, a lot of idiots take this line? How often do you catch a conservative player bluffing like this 45 minutes into a tournament...? I've played tournaments from $1 to $10+1 buy in but I rarely see a bluff like this...

The call might make sense in cash games where you can just reload, but in tournament play where so many people will fold to see a better situation or limp into the money? In tournament play, having chips is +EV than not having chips for the most part so a play with a very small +EV chip wise is not necessarily the right play to make. Furthermore, remember that the probability is a >20% bluff without an A or a pair. If you put your opponent on any random hand, this bluff % is more in the realm of 25-30%. If I had a decent A or pockets, I would have just shoved preflop but that's besides the point

Um... it clearly didn't work out? (though this situation is an anamoly)

On the surface it looks bad, but my holdings were irrelevant and I could have done this with 72o for all I care. If you have a reason to say that it's a horrible call other than that it looks bad, let me know

Okay, I'm sure zachvac is ignoring this thread by now but just a quick update. I stand corrected on the small - medium pairs issue. As I partly mentioned that pockets may be part of the range, my fears were confirmed so I have to update the percentages.

I don't want to go dig the hand up but situation was similar to here where they min raised under the gun. I call with a marginal hand and shove on a very dry board (a spread out rainbow flop). They tank forever, then call me flipping over 22.

The deviations from the original post were that villain was not quite as tight as in previous hand, and my image was not quite as conservative because I had turned on aggressive mode awhile back. While I think that min raising with 22 was awful here, and I think villain would agree here if he could play the hand over, people do it anyway so I have to take that into account.

Why is min raising with 22 awful here? I can call this with a wide range of hands and shove. If you have 22, you are facing a decision here. If you incorrectly assess the situation and they have a pair, you are drawing almost dead. If you correctly call the bluff and they don't have a pair, they still have 6 outs on you giving them a 25% chance to win.

Think of it this way.. Each time you min raise.. you give your opponent at least 3 to 1 odds to call...

Yeah unless you're really short 22 should be a pretty easy fold. The difference I think is that 22 can't be played for stacks comfortably and if you're going to raise with it you should maximize fold equity and just jam. KQ just plays decently well postflop. Sorry forgot about this I'll address the previous part hopefully this afternoon.