At what point is it safe to consider yourself a winning player?

#1 10th August 2009, 3:56 PM

I've been beating 5NL for about 7ptbb/hr for the last 12000 hands (before that I didn't use poker tracker but have played for about 3 years on and off).

I know this is a small sample and I'd need 100000 or more to really know that I'm winning but how likely is it that this is just a lucky streak? I feel like I'm playing well, I usually get my money in when I'm ahead and I'm getting better at controling tilt. Do you think it's safe to assume I'm a winning player and move up when my roll allows it or would you stay at 5NL until I have more hands under my belt?

Any advice from you guys who have been through this would be much appreciated

#2 10th August 2009, 4:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nugganootch

I've been beating 5NL for about 7ptbb/hr for the last 12000 hands (before that I didn't use poker tracker but have played for about 3 years on and off).

I know this is a small sample and I'd need 100000 or more to really know that I'm winning but how likely is it that this is just a lucky streak? I feel like I'm playing well, I usually get my money in when I'm ahead and I'm getting better at controling tilt. Do you think it's safe to assume I'm a winning player and move up when my roll allows it or would you stay at 5NL until I have more hands under my belt?

Any advice from you guys who have been through this would be much appreciated

i always figured 5NL is a bad place to be. how much is the max buy-in for this level on FT? on Stars, it is 10 bucks, and it seems much more meaningful to be at 10NL with this buy-in.

generally, if you are bankrolled for a higher level and if you think you can handle it, i say go for it, don't wait. you may already be playing at a level that is enough to beat the higher stakes, so why waste the time at 5NL?

although, you do have to watch yourself for a while after moving up, to make sure you are still winning and not tilting or playing scared because of the bigger bets. good luck!

#3 10th August 2009, 4:02 PM

the correct answer is: never. the games keep changing you so while you might be a winner today, you might become yourself a loser tomorrow.

on the other hand, 12k hands is not a bad sample for micro-stakes. btw, what is your ptbb/100? It's more informative than ptbb/hr.

if you can find the standard deviation in PT3, you can play with http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr to figure out more.

#4 10th August 2009, 4:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nugganootch

I've been beating 5NL for about 7ptbb/hr for the last 12000 hands (before that I didn't use poker tracker but have played for about 3 years on and off).

I know this is a small sample and I'd need 100000 or more to really know that I'm winning but how likely is it that this is just a lucky streak? I feel like I'm playing well, I usually get my money in when I'm ahead and I'm getting better at controling tilt. Do you think it's safe to assume I'm a winning player and move up when my roll allows it or would you stay at 5NL until I have more hands under my belt?

Any advice from you guys who have been through this would be much appreciated

Did you play full ring or 6-handed?
How about your profit per 100 hands?
Most winning players dont stay as long as you have at 2nl, so there is very little information about what a good profit at this level is, but I think you are ready to move up to 5nl (given you have the bankroll for it).

#5 11th August 2009, 12:27 AM

There is no need to be overly cautious with micro limits IMO, once you hit 20-25 BI's if your winning for 4 or 5bb/100 then you'd definitely want to move up and not waste anymore time. Once you hit 25NL and up, then it is a little more important to have 30-40 BI's and have a solid win rate over a 40-50k hand sample. Of course this is just my comfort level, and to be honest the decision comes down to your comfort level. Comfort often dictates confidence and confidence is going to affect your overall play tremendously.

#6 11th August 2009, 10:40 AM

I think my BB/100 is 4 point something. I'm not on my laptop today so I'll have to check tomorrow. I play full ring, my style is probably too tight for 6 max.

Thanks for the advice guys, I think I'm going to take a shot when my role allows it, I can always move back down. I'm still plugging some holes in my play from the blinds so staying at this level a little while longer won't hurt, for some reason the blinds are the only positions I actually lose money from. I guess it's because I open up my range too much and don't fold easily enough when I half hit the board. I'm working on it though

#7 11th August 2009, 5:30 PM

There's no universal definition for what it takes to be a winning player, although obviously, you have to be ahead. That said, how much ahead and over how long a period and/or how many hands are pretty subjective. Plus you can be a winning player despite having gone broke multiple times.

#8 12th August 2009, 3:02 PM

I've got a spreadsheet that does variance calcs.

At 12,000 hands, and a 7ptbb/100 winrate, a 95% confidence interval puts your "actual" winnings at +/- 10.73 ptbb/100.

So you're true winrate would be between -3.7 and 17.7 ptbb/100.

If you maintained this winrate, right around 30k hands you could say you are in fact a profitable player, with an "actual" winrate of .21-13.7ptbb/100

Otherwise, for 12k hands, you must be winning at 11ptbb/100, at which point your true winrate range is .26-21.7ptbb/100

#9 12th August 2009, 3:09 PM

I just realized I ran those numbers and they're no good. I need to enter the standard deviation, and I left it at what it was for a HU player.

Depending on your SD, it could already be that you are likely a winning player. I would say based on what I've seen of play at those limits, that if you feel like you're better than the competition, and you're also getting money in well, then you likely are in fact a winning player there.

Similar Threads for: Texas Hold'em Poker > At what point is it safe to consider yourself a winning player?
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
beating up on the weak player - by Daniel Negreanu	scooterdice	Cash Games	0	16th September 2008 5:11 PM

Play Texas Hold'em Online Poker \| At what point is it safe to consider yourself a winning player?
PokerStars is one of the best sites to play online poker. Using PokerStars marketing code CCHAT you get a $600 bonus. Note: No US Players Accepted.	Bodog is the a highly popular US online poker site with a huge deposit bonus of 110% up to $1100.