What is the percentage of a hand with two pairs against a flush draw?

What is the percentage of a hand with two pairs against a flush draw?

like in this hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #14141365233: PPB Freeroll Agosto 8 (101315318), Table 20 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:19:40 ET - 2009/08/19
Seat 1: mattzan (3,150)
Seat 2: vito corlleoni (3,125)
Seat 3: vivilopes (6,085)
Seat 4: stenio castiel (6,145)
Seat 5: Geleia3K (2,880), is sitting out
Seat 6: chimp123 (4,006)
Seat 7: Studart1979 (6,220)
Seat 8: niltonthegamer (1,095), is sitting out
Seat 9: WOLVERINI30 (2,775)
WOLVERINI30 posts the small blind of 40
mattzan posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattzan [9h Qc]
vito corlleoni calls 80
vivilopes folds
stenio castiel folds
Geleia3K folds
chimp123 folds
Studart1979 folds
niltonthegamer folds
WOLVERINI30 raises to 160
mattzan calls 80
vito corlleoni calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Th 9c Qh]
WOLVERINI30 bets 320
mattzan has 15 seconds left to act
mattzan raises to 2,990, and is all in
vito corlleoni folds
WOLVERINI30 has 15 seconds left to act
WOLVERINI30 calls 2,295, and is all in
mattzan shows [9h Qc]
WOLVERINI30 shows [Ah 6h]
Uncalled bet of 375 returned to mattzan
*** TURN *** [Th 9c Qh] 8♥
*** RIVER *** [Th 9c Qh 8h] [Td]
mattzan shows two pair, Queens and Tens
WOLVERINI30 shows a flush, Ace high
WOLVERINI30 wins the pot (5,710) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,710 | Rake 0
Board: [Th 9c Qh 8h Td]
Seat 1: mattzan (big blind) showed [9h Qc] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 2: vito corlleoni folded on the Flop
Seat 3: vivilopes didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: stenio castiel didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Geleia3K didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: chimp123 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Studart1979 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: niltonthegamer (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: WOLVERINI30 (small blind) showed [Ah 6h] and won (5,710) with a flush, Ace high

With one card left to go after the flop to complete the flushdraw, the chance on making it on the turn is about 36%. Should he have missed it on the turn there is a 18% chance he'd make it on the river.

Basicly said, 1 out of 3 hands would make the flush on the turn or 1 out of 6 hands would complete it on the river.

Just count the number of outs and multiply it by 4 to calculate chance for your draw on the turn. and do the same, except multiply it by 2 to calculate your chance your draw on the river.

With suited hole cards and 2 on the flop there are still 9 cards left in the deck. (not counting the ones other people might have folded)
9 cards x 4 = 36%
9 cards x 2 = 18%

Making a flush on the flop with suited hole cards is about 3%

so.. i had a 9 of hearts. that makes 8 cards to hit the flush with gives 8x4 = 32% on the turn and 8x2 = 16% on the river right?

exacly.
wich is still about the same chance compared to 9 cards.

This method can be used for any other hand.

lets say you are holding T/J
flop would show 8 - 9 - 2
This means you have an open ended straight draw.

You need either a 7 or a queen to complete your straight.
there's 4 of each in the deck, giving you a total of 8 outs.

8 x 4 = 32% chance you'll hit the straight on the turn
8 x 2 = 16% chance you'll hit the straight on the river.

PokerStove is your friend .

Board: Th 9c Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.909% 65.45% 00.45% 648 4.50 { Qc9h }
Hand 1: 34.091% 33.64% 00.45% 333 4.50 { Ah6h }

this is wrong actually
the chance is 8/45 = 17.8% on the turn, and 8/44 = 18.2% on the river (when it did not hit on the turn). the total chance of hitting the flush on the turn OR river is near 32-3%.

but as sindri said - pokerstove is your friend.

now i'm confused. what's correct? And please comment about the hand that I lost.

there isn't much to comment about the hand. as sindri's pokerstove analysis showed, you got your money in as a ~66% favorite, which is good. (but it still means you lose 34% of the time, and this time was one of those 34%.) make a note on the villain in case you ever run into him again, and live through it.

as to what is correct, it is just math - the chance of a certain card hitting on the turn is definitely not larger than it hitting on the river, quite the opposite (as i tried to demonstrate). the "multiply by 4" rule of thumb applies when there are no future bets to be made (all-in on the flop, as in this hand), and it reflects the chance that a card would hit on either the turn or the river. what Alwinpos said above shows a misunderstanding of the basics of probability....

(edit) oh, and please convert your example hands next time - look at the hand analysis forums for ideas which converters to use. this is literally hurting people's eyes to read...

A comment about the hand.... you typically want to bet an amount where it'd be a mistake for your opponent to be calling on a draw (ie. on the turn if you bet 1/2pot, for a flush to be calling he is not getting pot odds to make the call (however he might be getting implied odds... but this is another story). In a freeroll (and even in micro limits.... even in CC games for that matter, lol) you will get the odd player who will call a pot-sized turn shove with nothing but a weak flush draw. Is it a crazy call?... yes obviously it is. Do they know that?.. who knows
The 2 - 4 rule for calculating the percentage odds for improving to a winning hand is fairly accurate (however once you have more than 9outs it isn't quite as accurate).

Try playing around with a simple odds calculator to get better acquainted with how certain hands stack up against others or to perhaps check out (after the fact) to see if you got your money in good.... and to give you some idea to base future play around (basically.... to just get better acquainted with it all).
THere are many odds calculators online that you can use for free. A cool one that works for NLHE but also works for other games too (PLO, O8, Stud, Stud H/L, etc.) is the BackHander Calculator found at www.thebackhander.com

A good book to read that outlines & explains in layman terms - odds, bet-sizing, size of bets to profitably call etc. is Phil Gordon's "Little Green Book".

The odds of hitting a flush draw on the are 36% after the flop and 18% after the turn.

Use the following rule.

No of outs = 9

Odds after flush are 4 x 9 = 36%
Odds after turn are 2 x 9 = 18%

This ruleapplies in all situations.

Count your outs and multiply by 2 or 4 to get percentage. 4 applies after flop. 2 applies after turn.

Hope this makes sense.

Good luck.

Just note that it is best to only use the lower percentage for hitting (i.e. 9 cards x 2 % = 18%) chance of hitting and not to use the 36% chance even if you still have the turn and river. Use the 36% chance only on an all in situation. Reason is that you should be comparing this probability with the pot odds and the pot odds will change after the turn. You may have a pot of $ 300 and with a 4:1 odds of hitting your flush on the next card you would only want to bet no more than 20% of the pot. After the turn, the pot will be bigger and you will then be betting more, plus what you already bet at the turn. Therefore, you can easily be misled by betting at the turn, if you are betting based on a 36% win rate.