what are the odds

i f you flop a set and their are two flush cards out there should you bet becuase i get sucked out on every time

Assuming no straight draws, and the flush is the only way to win then you're about 75% favourite.

You will be a big favorite on the flop.
But you have to get cheap to the turn.
If the turn is clear, you can bet something more into the pot.
Or you could make it very expencive for pll and maybe they muck a draw.

Terrible advice imo. u whant to charge people for drawing.

Yeah you dont ever want to let an opponent see a free or cheap card in that situation. I would bet the pot or 1.5x the pot to make em pay to draw. If they hit, they hit theres nothing more you can do at that point.

Remember there is no shame in getting your money in good especially when you are a heavy favorite to win like this situation.

Get your money in. Take away pot odds. Normal odds against filling a flush are 4:1 on the next card, 2:1 with two cards to go. Opponent doesn't know you have set, so he doesn't know he's actually 3:1 behind (by the river). Of course, you don't know he has flush draw, but you're betting based on the flushy board.

So size your bet so that a knowledgeable opponent will be getting pot odds worse than 2:1 if it's a tourney and possible all-in situation. If he's short-stacked, he may well call anyway. If you size your bet correctly, he calls and sucks out - CONGRATULATIONS. You made a good play and your opponent just got rewarded for bad play, so he's likely to repeat this mistake. Gotta love your suckouts.

If your bet is too small and you let him draw too cheaply and hit, then it's your mistake.

If it's a cash game or early tourney with healthy stacks, I might bet potsized or about 2/3 to 3/4 pot. So if it,s a $10 pot, you bet $7. It's $7 for him to call into a $17 pot, or about 2.4:1 pot odds on a 4:1 turn draw. Bad call if he makes it. You could be more aggressive if you want to shut him out. But I think your equity is higher (short term risk is too) if you size bet more modestly in order to encourage opponent to make bad call. He also might make bad call if you've been playing loose and he sees implied odds in getting you pot committed. So like so many things in poker, there are many factors to consider. But recognize you'll have to bet bigger in some situations where opponent has reason to figure odds to river (short-stacked, late tourney, etc.)


Gary the Worden

Amazing, some of the best advice and worst advice all in one thread.

The only thing I would change is the villain's odds of hitting his card on the turn.

9 outs for the flush, 45 remaining cards = 5:1 odds.

Other than that, Worden articulated the betting strategy perfectly IMHO.

Thanks.
As to your turn odds, isn't it really 46 remaining cards, since all you know are your two holes and the four boards? If you were heads-up all-in, then you'd know more cards. But then you'd no longer have any decisions to make either.

I think you're stating your odds ratio incorrectly. It is one chance in five, which is what you must be thinking, but it's not five to one. The 9/46 scenario has a probability of 19.57%. Round it 20%. That means there's an 80% chance of NOT hitting the draw and a 20% chance of hitting it. The ratio is 80:20, which equals 4:1.

Gary

Correct I had the numbers backwards but the math holds.

I was doing the odds based on a known flush draw as the original poster was thinking, so the villains hole cards suit is known. Otherwise, what's the point in calculating the odds to flush the hero?

Three board cards, two hole cards (hero), two hole cards (villain) = 45 remaining was my calc. And I was only providing the odds for villain hitting the turn, not both remaining cards.

OK. The only issue I have is that you're counting unknown cards as known ones. You know your holes and you know the board, but you certainly don't know your opponent's holes (unless your name is PotRipper), so in this instance there are 47 unknown cards, not 45. The opponents two cards are in play, but they are not removed from the universe of cards that are unknown to you.

But I see what you're saying. You're giving him credit for the suited cards - THINKING he's on a flush draw. I guess that makes some sense. It has little effect on the calculations - actually giving your opponent slightly better odds.

Maybe you do the 9/47 or 9/45 calculations in such situations. My brain is not that good, so I usually just use the rule of two and the rule of four and consider it close enough.

Thanks for the discussion.
Gary

These are two separate issues. Putting your opponent on a hand is one thing, and it's an important skill, but has really more to do with your experience with that opponent, knowing his range and tendencies and things like that. Sure, you can put yourself in his position and try to figure out whether he's making reasonable calls given certain scenarios, but you can't really calculate his hand. You don't really NEED to know his hand. You just need to know whether you're likely to beat his probable range of hands. In other words, if you're drawing to a flush and happen to complete it, it doesn't matter whether he has a pair of aces, a set, two pair or a straight.

You're missing a big part of the game, though, if you never make odds calculations based on your own draws. You can be behind in a hand, that is to say losing at the moment, but be favored to win by the river. You need to know that. You can also be behind, still be likely to lose but have pot odds or implied odds that exceed your drawing odds. It's usually correct to make those draws, even though you're likely to lose this time. What you're interested in is not the times you win and the time you lose, but the expected Value. If in a given situation you lose $10 four times, but expect to win $50 once, that is a positive eV situation. Every five time you're in this situation, if you play it correctly, you'll expect to make $10, or $2.50 per hand.

If you don't calculate outs and odds, then you don't recognize situations where you should be making such draws and you're giving up a good part of your game.

Agreed. I don't know how many times I've been accused of either sucking out or being a donk for "chasing" when I've moved someone all in after the flop when I've held two overs and a flush draw against their pocket pair -- i.e., a classic situation where I'm a favorite to win even though I'm behind in the hand at the time. Heck, I even remember a hand on Poker After Dark where Johnny Chan was "accused" of the same thing, though in a different situation odds-wise because his opponent had flopped trips (Chan wound up making his flush).

I will say though that it can take a while to get your head around the concept of being behind in a hand but a favorite to win. For me the light came on when I read about the good old rule of 4s and 2s -- it dosen't get you the exact odds, but close enough.