Variance

#1 1st February 2012, 11:21 AM

I have a question that I have never seen an answer for when it comes to variance.

Has variance ever been gauged and if so what is the average length?
In other words, how long , on average, would I expect to be on a losing curve?

ATM, I'm playing 5NL.

#2 1st February 2012, 1:50 PM

It depends. If you're actually a losing player, your curve will have ups and downs, but overall, it will trend down until you improve or stop. If you're a winning player, you will be more vulnerable to long downturns if you play higher-variance games and/or a higher variance style.

#3 1st February 2012, 2:08 PM

Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.

#4 1st February 2012, 2:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuttleFish

Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.

Well, THAT'S a pleasant thought....thanks for that .

#5 1st February 2012, 2:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big_Rudy

Well, THAT'S a pleasant thought....thanks for that .

Sorry

#6 1st February 2012, 7:18 PM

It impossible to gauge length of variance. Think about it in terms of a simple coin flip. You know that if you flip the thing an infinite amount of times you will get heads 50% and tails 50% of the time. But there will be times you get 40 tails in a row when expecting heads. There is really no way to determine when things will even out over a finite period of time.

#7 6th February 2012, 7:56 PM

The toughest thing about variance is it can only be applied to your history, not your future.

#8 6th February 2012, 8:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuttleFish

Even variance has........variance. So the answer is anywhere from it will stop immediately to it will never stop.

This^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ + there is no such animal as an average Canadian, so that part of your question is irrevelant.

#9 8th February 2012, 8:41 PM

you have to play your way out of downswings.....you will have an upswing eventually

#10 8th February 2012, 8:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peedee91

you have to play your way out of downswings.....you will have an upswing eventually

Soooo....optimist, or new to the game?

#11 9th February 2012, 4:13 AM

Variance by its very nature has no reference to a time frame. It just is.

#12 9th February 2012, 4:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shwiggler

It impossible to gauge length of variance. Think about it in terms of a simple coin flip. You know that if you flip the thing an infinite amount of times you will get heads 50% and tails 50% of the time. But there will be times you get 40 tails in a row when expecting heads. There is really no way to determine when things will even out over a finite period of time.

Things won't even out. Even if temporarily you do get a 1:1 split in heads/tails, it will inevitably deviate from that "equilibrium" again. All you can hope for is to win somewhere near your expected rate of winnings.

If variance were predictable in any way other than after-the-fact, then it wouldn't be "variance."

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