UNDERSTANDING ODDS: using odds to make the right decision

Let's say you have an open ended straight draw on the flop and there is 1000 in the pot. You are in position and the opponent bets 500 to you. So, with eight outs you have approx 32% chance to win it which gives you 1:3 ratio on winning the hand. At this moment if you call, you have to put 500 in the pot to win 2000 giving you 1:4 ratio on risk versus reward. Hence making it a profitable call as you have a better outcome if you win compared to how much you put in. However, If the opponent overbets the pot as much as 1000 in a 1000 pot, it becomes 1:3 against 3:1 and hence becomes unfavourable to continue as there is no reward for the risk in the long run and you might as well save the money for the time being to play the next hand. If they shove, just muck your cards without a thought.

One important part of your calculation is missing. How many chips do you have? I don't think you can just look at pot odds. I think you also have to take into account how many chips you have, how many chips your opponent has, what have been his/her betting tendencies, etc. If it is early in a tourney and you only have 4,000 chips, you are basically risking one-eighth of your stack to call. Then you have to factor in what would happen with the turn bet. Has your opponent been aggressive? Do you have reason to believe he/she will shove the turn or at least up the bet to maybe 1,000? Is it worth risking a significant portion of your stack to chase a straight?

On the other hand, if you have 10,000 chips, you can float 500 out there just to see what happens.

That 32% is from turn and river.

Anyway, youre discussing pot odds and its action above. But aside from pot odds, there is also the so called implied odds which might change our decision.

Quick note, your pot odds calculations are incorrect. Your figuring out what you need to call vs what's in the pot. With 1000 pot, opponent bets 500, it's only 3:1 or 1500 : 500 not 4:1.

I do feel that in poker today many players put more weighting on implied odds rather than pot odds, except for when you're calling a bet preflop with a below average hand being offered 6/1 odds etc;

Yeah pot odds were incorrect and so was the odds to win, 32% is closer to 1:2. 1:3 would be 1/4 or 25%.

Card Odds: Your % to win vs. Villain % to win as a ratio.

IF your opponent hit top pair, and you are open ended, your card odds over *2 STREETS* is

32%:68%, or basically 1:2

over one street it's more like

18%:82%, or 1:4

Pot odds: What you have to pay vs. What is in the pot already

In your example

500:1500, or 1:3




So... in this example, you don't have immediate odds to call, but you do have acceptable odds if you can get to the river without putting more money in. This is where things like position, additional outs, and fold equity come into play. For example, one line you can take is to raise rather than call. If you are in position chances are your opponent will check the turn, you can check back, and ultimately get to the river at less cost than if you had to float the turn. Depending on how you think your opponent will react to a raise you can determine if you want to min raise, put in a substantial raise, or simply fold out cause your holding might suck.

Mind you, if you have an overcard to the board you just potentially added 3 more outs (6% per street) which changes things pretty significantly.

If you have two overcards to the board you may actually be a favorite on the flop.